Obama wins debate by 11 points in swing states

PPP's post debate poll in the swing states, conducted on behalf of Americans United for Change, finds that Barack Obama was the big winner in tonight's face off. 53% of those surveyed in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin think Obama was the winner to 42% who pick Romney.

Obama's winning margin among critical independent voters was even larger than his overall win, with 55% of them picking him as the winner to 40% for Romney. The sense that Obama was the winner is pretty universal across different demographics groups- women (57/39), men (48/45), Hispanics (69/29), African Americans (87/13), whites (49/45), young voters (55/40), and seniors (53/43) all think Obama came out ahead tonight.

Maybe even more important than the sentiment on who won the debate is who folks in these swing states are planning to vote for now: 51% of them say they're going to support Obama to 45% who stand with Romney. That includes a 46/36 advantage for Obama with independents, and Obama also seems to have made a lot of progress with groups he was previously down by wide margins with. Among men (50/47) and whites (50/46) he is trailing only slightly and with seniors he's actually ahead 52/47.

Tonight's debate was more a win for Obama than a loss for Romney. Romney, despite losing, came out with 38% of voters now saying they're more likely to vote for him to 35% who say they're less likely to for a +3 positive spread. Obama just came out even better with 37% of voters saying they're more likely to vote for him to 31% who are less likely to for a +6 spread.

Interestingly Obama only came out of the debate as the candidate trusted more on foreign policy by a 51/47 margin, much closer than his overall victory in the face off. That suggests the points Obama scored on 'off topic' issues might have been more important than anything he said about foreign policy.

Full results here

Comments

[Steve]

Isn't it true that this is among 'debate watchers' meaning that it's not necessarily representational for all voters in these states?

It looks like a Dem-leaning sample?

[Nancy]

President was strong in this debate and clearly showed how powerful he is in foreign affairs. Romney was again a flip-flopper and showed how weak he is on foreign affairs and domestic issues. His shiftiness was evident tonight.

[d_noland@sbcglobal.net]

Romney is a salesman, clear and simple. Like one pundit after the debate said, he's like a linoleum salesman. This would be great in your kitchen. Oh, you don't want it in your kitchen, well, then how about the front hall? Not there either, well, hey it'll go great in the game room. He'll just keep changing till he hits the button you want to hear. The president on the other hand is clear, articulate, calm, decisive and reliable. Why anyone would trade him in for a used car or linoleum salesman, is beyond understanding.

[James]

Steve,
As a whole, the country has more registered Democrats than Republicans. Every sample should be Dem leaning at least by party affiliation.

[Henri]

One strategic reason for Romney to appear more moderate and "soft" tonight was to convince women in particular that he wouldn't be rushing with new wars, etc. The flip side is that Romney might have loss support from older voters, and men, who want to see a strong commander in chief at the helm ... This might be especially important in Florida ... and Ohio.

[Tommy]

President Obama is very cautious and he considers all facets of any situation before coming to a conclusion that leads to well planned positive action. Mitt Romney is impulsive, quick to jump to conclusions, bull headed and rude. I would hate to have Mitt Romney near the button that would unleash an atomic weapon because an utterance of uh oh I made a mistake, after the explosion would simply be too little too late. In life or death situations Mitt wouldn't get a second chance like he does as a Vulture Capitalist.

[Gary]

Miit was Sweating Bullets like a pale Pig!
Romneys scattered performance showed us how a failed one-term governor... is going to be.... a successful president?! I guess you can make Republican voters believe anything.

OBAMA 2012!!!

[Nancy Miller Martin]

Hi Tom, Thank you for the great job you guys always do. I heard Chuck Todd say on MSNBC this morning that Romney and Obama campaigns had resigned themselves that NC belongs to Romney and that Romney isn't going to spend any more money here. They also said that they both have agreed that Nevada is going to Obama. Is this true, and if it is why are we knocking ourselves out here?

[Ted Muhlhauser]

Is there a transposition in the last paragraph? It makes more sense to replace the last reference to President Obama with reference to Romney.

"Interestingly Obama only came out of the debate as the candidate trusted more on foreign policy by a 51/47 margin, much closer than his overall victory in the face off. That suggests the points Obama (OR ROMNEY?) scored on 'off topic' issues might have been more important than anything he said about foreign policy."

[Steve]

My point is merely that this is a poll of debate watchers, which is not the same as all voters. CNN clearly points this out with their surveys and I'm baffled why PPP hasn't pointed this out. As I understand it, that 51%-45% lead is amongst the sample of viewers who watched the debate.

Am I correct, PPP?

[Obama 2012]

I find it shocking that Obama only wins foreign policy 51% to 47% ... what.. the.. hell is wrong with people? It's just amazing to me how many times the Republicans can be wrong about everything and get away with it. Just amazing.

[Toby]

Steve, remember when the RNC was on TV, Honey Boo Boo had more viewers? It's hard to get a good sampling of people who watch TV when it's important... or is it?

[Mike]

there were 65 million people that watched the debate, so even if the poll was taken just from that sample, that is a pretty big number, more than half of all votes. If you give Romney or Obama the benefit of the doubt and call it even with those who didn't watch the debate, the resulting poll is pretty significant.

[cheap jersey]

There is a transposition in the last paragraph? More meaningful thing is to replace the last quoted President Obama about Mr Romney.
"It's interesting that the Obama only out for candidates debate in foreign policy more trust by 51/47 of the profit, more comprehensive victory in the kick-off. This shows that Obama's point (or romney?) score" no related problems may have ratio what all important, he said about foreign policy. "