Obama up in Nevada, Senate race tied

PPP's newest Nevada poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51/47, numbers exactly identical to what they were when we last polled the state two weeks ago.

Obama is already well on his way to winning Nevada based on early votes that have been cast in the week. Among those who say they've already voted he has a 61/39 advantage. Romney is up 51/46 with those planning to vote between now and election day.

The debates over the last couple weeks seem to have improved Obama's image in Nevada. 52% of voters approve of him now to 46% who disapprove, up from a 49/48 spread on our last poll. Nevadans think Obama won Monday's debate by a 50/38 margin. He has a 49/47 advantage over Romney in terms of who voters trust more about the economy and a 51/46 lead on foreign policy.

Obama's leading based on advantages of 69/28 with Hispanics, 82/12 with African Americans, 54/44 with women, and 58/39 with young voters. Romney's ahead with men (50/48), whites (57/42), and seniors (53/45). He also has a 53/44 advantage with independents but he'd probably need to take them by a wider margin than that to overcome the Democratic registration edge in the state.

The Nevada Senate race looks like a toss up with Dean Heller and Shelley Berkley both at 44% and Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanderBeek getting 7%. The tie is a shift in Berkley's direction from a three point deficit on our poll 2 weeks ago.

There's also reason to think the race could continue to move in her direction. Among undecided voters in the Senate race, 69% support Barack Obama to 19% who are for Mitt Romney. 50% are Democrats to only 23% who are Republicans. Those folks are a lot more likely to ultimately end up with Berkley than Heller.  Supporters of VanderBeek are also Democratic leaning, supporting Obama 57-33, and if those folks end up deciding to vote for one of the major candidates they seem more likely to end up with Berkley as well.

A lot of attention has been paid to Berkley's unpopularity and there's really no doubt that Nevadans are not enamored with her- only 41% have a favorable opinion to 53% with a negative one. What's received less attention and is a big reason why this race is competitive is that Heller isn't exactly popular either. He has a slightly negative approval rating with 46% of voters giving him good marks to 47% who disapprove. In a contest between two unpopular candidates the edge may end up going to the candidate whose party is stronger in the state and in this case that would be Berkley.

Full results here