Barack Obama moved slightly ahead in the rolling three day average of PPP's national tracking tonight, 49-48. He was down 49-47 in Monday night's release but has gained a net 3 points as interviews from Tuesday and Wednesday have replaced those conducted on Saturday and Sunday.
The key for Obama is that he's reduced Romney's lead with independents in the wake of his debate win on Monday night. He trailed by 9 points with them earlier in the week but has now cut that deficit to 2 at 47-45. Because of the party identification advantage Democrats enjoy nationally, Romney probably needs to win independents by a wider margin than that if he's going to be elected.
There have been small shifts in Obama and Romney's favorability numbers in the wake of the debate. Obama's favorability has improved a net 3 points from 47/49 to 49/48. His job approval numbers, although still in the red, have seen similar shift from 45/51 to 47/50. Meanwhile Romney's reviews have gone in the other direction from 50/45 to 49/47.
Obama's up big with women (54/42), African Americans (91/6), Hispanics (58/37), and voters under 30 (58/38). Romney's strength is with men (56/42), whites (58/39), and seniors (55/43).
Obama took a small lead in our tracking last week in the immediate aftermath of his debate win and then lost it as the weekend approached. We'll see in the next few days if this advantage, as small as it is, proves to be more durable.
Full results here
Good Heavens! With all we know about Romney, ie his unsubstantiated Economic Plan, his stand on Roe vs Wade, his spurious 'business experience creating jobs', his record in Mass...Ryan's record on Women, the Poor, and both their views, or NON views on Veterans...how on earth are they still able to be nearly tied?...ahhhh, must be Mitt's expertise on MALI!!!
Posted by: esther | October 24, 2012 at 11:43 PM
Lets see what Mourdock says has an effect on the women's vote which btw outweighs the male vote by a decent margin. You pollsters are breathlessly trying to make this a tight race. Obama's approval rating btw is not in the red, maybe you guys should stop polling red districts.
Posted by: Jeff | October 25, 2012 at 12:24 AM
Obama Hispanic advantage seems considerably smaller than all others previously polled
Posted by: DaCoach | October 25, 2012 at 04:47 AM