Obama leads 51-47 in Ohio

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago.

It's starting to look like Obama might have turned the corner with his wins in the second and third debates. When asked who they think won the debates as a whole Obama wins out 45/43, suggesting he really fixed his problems from the first debate with the second two. Obama's approval is on positive ground at 51/48, while Romney's favorability is in negative territory at 47/51. Ohioans trust Obama over Romney on both the economy (52/46) and foreign policy (54/44).

Obama's built up a big lead among early voters in the state. 36% say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 63/36 margin. Romney's up 53/45 with those yet to vote.

The main shift from a week ago is Democrats further unifying around Obama as the election nears. Last week he led 86/14 with them in the state and now he's pushed that up further to 88/10. Romney continues to lead with independents, 50/46, but that's down a tick from 49/42 last week.

Obama's lead in Ohio comes thanks to big advantages among women (55/43), African Americans (86/12), and young voters (60/36). Romney's winning with men (52/46), whites (52/46), and seniors (54/45) but he would need to win those groups, particularly whites and men, by considerably wider margins if he was going to take the state.

The Senate race really appears to be getting away from Josh Mandel in the closing stages. Sherrod Brown's opened up a 53/42 lead. Brown's winning independents 48/44 even as Obama loses them, and he has 89% of Democrats lined up behind him while only 81% of Republicans are committed to Mandel. Brown's approval is on slightly positive ground at 47/44, while Mandel continues to be very unpopular with only 38% of voters seeing him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion.

Ohio's referendum to create an independent redistricting commission continues to appear headed for defeat. 37% of voters say they'll support it to 48% who are opposed. Independents oppose it by a 47/41 margin and although Democrats support it (55/30), Republicans are even more united in their opposition to it (12/72).

Two other notes from Ohio:

-There's no enthusiasm gap in the state. 69% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote and 68% of Republicans do.

-Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state 50/42.

Full results here

Comments

[Casey]

With a +8D sampling. Get real. The average of the last 3 presidential elections is +1. Can you guys get serious and conduct a poll that even slightly mirrors reality?

[Scottebags]

If I was in the Obama camp I would NOT be happy with this poll.

D+8 sample size - Ohio has NEVER voted D+8. The exit polls in 2008 were D+8 but in actuality the vote ended up D+5.

Ohio is down 300K voter registrations since 2008, 44% of which were in Cuyahoga county. I just don't see how we are going to have this record-shattering Democratic turnout given the registration numbers, and especially given that the GOP is pretty fired up for this election in Ohio. There is no way the final tally will be anywhere near D+8. Keep in mind Ohio was R+5 in 2004.

Plus you have Romney carrying Independents +4 in your poll. Obama carried independents by +8 in 2008.

We know that although Democrats are winning the early vote, the margin is less than 4 years ago.

If you are an Obama supporter and feel good about this poll, you are kidding yourself. I have lived in Ohio all my life and I can tell you with certainty Romney will win this state.

[Dave]

How can 36% of the electorate have voted when George Mason at GMU writes that only 1 million voters have cast their ballots.

Out of my estimated combined Ohio total of 5.5 million ballost cast for this election, that means less than 20% have already voted, not 36%.

Last week's poll showed 21% already voted, and now it's 36%? How do you justify this increase?

[Jonnyv]

Seniors, really? That's interesting.

[Ed]

D+8? Ahahaha... PPP is polling an alternate reality.

[Pelosi Schmelosi]

1) Obama over 50% - check
2) D+8 - check
3) "turned the corner" - check

This poll is a joke.
You should be embarrassed.
But you're clearly in the tank for O so...

[Steve Barg]

Wonderful job of trying to influence the election with your phony D+8 sample and gross exaggeration of early voting! It is amazing just how stupid you guys at PPP think the public really is! Thanks for giving me a good laugh!!!

[Rosemary Osnato]

The people of Ohio are teaching the American people again.

[Capitalist Infidel]

36% have already voted??? You do know you can check to see if that's accurate? The actual number is 17.4% Instead of embarrassing yourself you might want to check next time. You can find the early voting for each state here.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[carmachu]

Stop trying to lie to folks. Here's your poll sample size:

The D/R/I partisan sample is 43/35/21, or D+8.

With that sample, Obama is NOT up 51-47. In fact he might be slightly losing. Even Fox news is more honest then you.

[Obama 2012]

party id is not static.

perhaps more Republicans are IDing as "independent" (ie: Tea Party types)

[sylvanus ebun]

Public Policy Polling is fair and balance and very true to polling. I even got a call from them the other day and they are the only polling calls we take in my household. The polls are not skewed to favor one over the other but their polls reflect a candidates coalition that they've built. Obama built a better coalition that reflect America today and as long as others refuse to build such they will loose election for years to come.

[mason]

OH was D+8 last time around.

[AKRNHSNC]

As far as Ohio goes in 2004, Bush won by 2% but it was considered a swing state up until election day. There were too many questionable results to say anything definite about '04 IMO.

If you want to see truly skewed polls, go to Unskewed Polls where they aren't using any recent results in their predictions unless they favor Romney, as in Rasmussen.