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October 13, 2012

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Dave

How can 19% of Ohio have already voted when there is only roughly 360,000 that have already voted according to George Mason at GMU?

That looks like about 10% of the projected vote, not 19%.

And how about polling Ohio during weekdays next time instead of the weekend?

Dave

Also, how can you justify Obama leading by 52% in the early vote when absentee ballot applications have been mailed out to all 88 counties?

SurveyUSA poll this week showed just 10% of the early voting was done with Obama leading by 20% - not 52%.

Obama 2012

you're going to be flooded with happy Obama supporters (I'm one) and probably plenty of "unskewed poll" right wing types saying you're biased. ... but uh... yeah; this is awesome. I was just hoping for any kind of lead at all... a 5% lead with that huge early vote advantage? That's fantastic.

Bill Mitchell

This poll is absolute GARBAGE.

You oversample Democrats and undersample Independents. Your suggestion that 76% of early votes are for Obama is laughable. That # so thoroughly blows away anything achieved even in 2008 despite the fact only half the absentee ballots have been requested in OH this year as in 2008 and Republicans are only 5% behind. In 2008 less than 20% had been returned at this time with twice as many out. No, just no.

There is simply no way Obama is leading 76/24. Nowhere near possible.

PPP lost credibility a long time ago if they ever had it.

Bill Mitchell

The numbers in this poll are impossible:

CUYAHOGA COUNTY (Largest County in the State, overwhelmingly Democrat).
TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS: 928,798 which is down over 180,000 from 2008.

Of this total, 229,794 have requested absentee ballots.
Of this total, 31,233 have returned them, 13.59% of the total requested.

So, math.

25% of all voters have requested absentee ballots.
14% of those requested have returned them.

That is a return rate of 3% of registered voters so far in the most Democrat County in OH.

So, if the actual statistics tell us that only 3% of voters have voted absentee in the largest Democrat County in OH, how do we get to the 20% you suggest in this poll? Answer, we don't.

Add to that a 76/24 Obama bias in early voting and things become really silly.

You are pushing a meme with this poll which simply does not exist. Why look at polling of tiny samples when we have access to the actual numbers?

Smooth Jazz

LOL, And the partisan breakdown on this poll is, Let me guess: Dems 50%, Reps 20%, Ind 30%?? Nice effort trying to turn the ship around on a slow news day. Romney has just drawn 50,000 people in 4 OH rallies in recent days, Obama has been pounded for the incompetence & duplicity in Libya in recent days, and you would have us believe that Obama is running away with OH - while he is getting pounded in other states such as FLA, NC & VA. Just remember the old adage: You can always get the results you want by sampling enough Dems.

John Burik

Appropriate caution is necessary when interpreting these results. Results indicate 19% of participants already voted. Only six percent of all voters who requested absentee ballots have submitted their ballots (using announced figures from SOS web site, 10/9/12). Thus, there are three times the early voters in this result as exist in the population of Ohio registered voters. So... encouraging results for the President, but prudence in generalization.

Bill Mitchell

According to actual numbers from OH, only 3.25% of voters have cast absentee ballots already, not 20%.

dan

Absentee ballots and in-person early voting are distinct, and both occur in Ohio.

Jeff

Dumb and misleading story. Amateurishness. Enough said.

Larry

I call "BULLSHIT"!!!!

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