Obama leads 51-46 in Ohio

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.

The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan was the victor. Biden's advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both Democrats and Republicans say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.

One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren't succeeding. By a 51/43 margin, voters trust Obama more than Romney on dealing with that issue. Obama also has a 51/46 advantage on dealing with the economy that mirrors his overall lead.

One reason Romney might be struggling to get traction in Ohio even as he surges elsewhere is his record on the auto bailout. Voters in the state support it by a 54/37 margin, including 58/35 with independents. They think Obama would be better than Romney for the auto industry 50/43, and 79% of voters consider it to be an important issue including 42% who say it's 'very important.'

In the US Senate race Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Josh Mandel 49-42, little change from a 49-41 advantage two weeks ago. Brown has narrowly positive approval numbers on this poll with 45% of voters giving him good marks to 43% who disapprove. Mandel meanwhile continues to be unpopular with only 37% of voters expressing a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Mandel may have more to worry about in 2014- he trails a generic Democrat 40-39 for reelection as State Treasurer. This campaign- at least to date- has been pretty damaging to his image.

Others notes from Ohio:

-The state's referendum to create an independent commission on redistricting looks a little bit more alive than it did two weeks ago, although it's still an uphill battle. 37% of voters support it to 44% opposed, compared to a 26/49 spread last time. The main movement has been among Democrats who've gone from favoring it only narrowly (37/34) to pretty strong support (58/24).

-John Kasich has a 42/41 approval spread and leads a hypothetical Democratic opponent 45-42.

-John Boehner's very unpopular in his home state with a 33/46 approval rating. Nevertheless Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot 44-42.

-Rob Portman has a 35/25 approval rating. 40% of voters have no opinion about him.

Full results here

Comments

[Dave]

How can 19% of Ohio have already voted when there is only roughly 360,000 that have already voted according to George Mason at GMU?

That looks like about 10% of the projected vote, not 19%.

And how about polling Ohio during weekdays next time instead of the weekend?

[Dave]

Also, how can you justify Obama leading by 52% in the early vote when absentee ballot applications have been mailed out to all 88 counties?

SurveyUSA poll this week showed just 10% of the early voting was done with Obama leading by 20% - not 52%.

[Obama 2012]

you're going to be flooded with happy Obama supporters (I'm one) and probably plenty of "unskewed poll" right wing types saying you're biased. ... but uh... yeah; this is awesome. I was just hoping for any kind of lead at all... a 5% lead with that huge early vote advantage? That's fantastic.

[Bill Mitchell]

This poll is absolute GARBAGE.

You oversample Democrats and undersample Independents. Your suggestion that 76% of early votes are for Obama is laughable. That # so thoroughly blows away anything achieved even in 2008 despite the fact only half the absentee ballots have been requested in OH this year as in 2008 and Republicans are only 5% behind. In 2008 less than 20% had been returned at this time with twice as many out. No, just no.

There is simply no way Obama is leading 76/24. Nowhere near possible.

PPP lost credibility a long time ago if they ever had it.

[Bill Mitchell]

The numbers in this poll are impossible:

CUYAHOGA COUNTY (Largest County in the State, overwhelmingly Democrat).
TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS: 928,798 which is down over 180,000 from 2008.

Of this total, 229,794 have requested absentee ballots.
Of this total, 31,233 have returned them, 13.59% of the total requested.

So, math.

25% of all voters have requested absentee ballots.
14% of those requested have returned them.

That is a return rate of 3% of registered voters so far in the most Democrat County in OH.

So, if the actual statistics tell us that only 3% of voters have voted absentee in the largest Democrat County in OH, how do we get to the 20% you suggest in this poll? Answer, we don't.

Add to that a 76/24 Obama bias in early voting and things become really silly.

You are pushing a meme with this poll which simply does not exist. Why look at polling of tiny samples when we have access to the actual numbers?

[Smooth Jazz]

LOL, And the partisan breakdown on this poll is, Let me guess: Dems 50%, Reps 20%, Ind 30%?? Nice effort trying to turn the ship around on a slow news day. Romney has just drawn 50,000 people in 4 OH rallies in recent days, Obama has been pounded for the incompetence & duplicity in Libya in recent days, and you would have us believe that Obama is running away with OH - while he is getting pounded in other states such as FLA, NC & VA. Just remember the old adage: You can always get the results you want by sampling enough Dems.

[John Burik]

Appropriate caution is necessary when interpreting these results. Results indicate 19% of participants already voted. Only six percent of all voters who requested absentee ballots have submitted their ballots (using announced figures from SOS web site, 10/9/12). Thus, there are three times the early voters in this result as exist in the population of Ohio registered voters. So... encouraging results for the President, but prudence in generalization.

[Bill Mitchell]

According to actual numbers from OH, only 3.25% of voters have cast absentee ballots already, not 20%.

[dan]

Absentee ballots and in-person early voting are distinct, and both occur in Ohio.

[Jeff]

Dumb and misleading story. Amateurishness. Enough said.

[Larry]

I call "BULLSHIT"!!!!