Obama lead down to 2 in Wisconsin

PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds a big debate bump for Mitt Romney in the state. Two weeks ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

There's not much doubt it was Romney's strong debate performance on Wednesday night that's given him this boost. Voters think he won the debate by a 61/25 margin, including a 60/19 margin with independents. 95% of Republicans think Romney won the debate, while only 50% of Democrats claim to think Obama was the winner. Romney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49% of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48% with a negative one. That's up a net 8 points from a 44/51 spread on our last poll.

The main shift compared to 2 weeks ago in Wisconsin is an increase in Republican enthusiasm about Romney and the election in general. He's gone from leading Obama by 79 points with Republicans (89-10) to an 85 point advantage (92-7). One thing that might be reassuring for Democrats is that Obama's held steady with independents in the state, continuing to hold a 9 point lead.

There's also been a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election. Two weeks ago there was basically no enthusiasm gap with 65% of Democrats and 63% of GOP voters saying they were 'very excited' to vote this fall. Now the Republicans are seeing an advantage on that question with their share of 'very excited' voters climbing to 72% while the Democrats have declined to 63%.

Looking at the movement in Wisconsin along racial lines, it's all come with white voters. They've gone from favoring Obama by 5 to supporting Romney by 3. Obama continues to get more than 70% among minorities. Obama's declined with women, going from an 11 point lead to a 7 point one, but he's declined even more with men, dropping from a 3 point lead to a 4 point deficit.

The most discussed issue in the wake of the debate Wednesday night has been about funding for public broadcasting. 51% of voters say they support federal funding for PBS to 33% who are opposed to it. Democrats (80/8) strongly support funding, Republicans (22/55) strongly oppose it, and independents (50/37) come pretty close to matching the overall numbers. We also asked about Big Bird himself and while he's a popular figure overall with a 51/11 favorability rating even his reviews have become somewhat partisan with Democrats (58/11) rating him a lot higher than Republicans (37/12).

Full results here

Comments

[Inkan1969]

I hope your comment about the Friday results holds across the board. That this jump for Romney was concentrated largely in Friday's numbers and has not continued in the Saturday results.

[Jim]

Winning Wisconsin is a tall order for Romney. Look at the historical voting record:

http://piqscore.com/wisconsin/

A Republican hasn't won Wisconsin since Reagan in 1984; Bush and Dole would have, were it not for Perot siphoning off 21.51% of the conservative vote in 1992, and 10.35% in 1996. (Dole would've beat Clinton by 0.02%)

There are mitigating circumstances: Ryan is from the state next-door, and the Walker Recall victory has fired up the conservative base... but Mitt will need a lot of help.

[Thucydides]

Given the relentless oversampling of Democrat voters and other manipulations, I doubt that any polls can be trusted anymore (or were trustworthy to begin with) When the results come in on election night a great many reputations will be ruined, both in the polling industry and the Legacy media.

[Timothy Capwell]

Eau Claire! I mean Oh dear!

[VDM]

"only 50% of Democrats think Obama won the debate"

So half the Democratic Party is in total blinding denial? Sounds about right.

[Sara Baker]

What about party sampling? I don't see any figures in your full results.

[SS]

Curious: do you always interview 33% R/D/Indep, or is that state by stat and dependent on the state's registration numbers?

[Phillip Cosmyer]

Hum. I watched Big Bird as a child. I loved him!
But facing a choice of bankrupting Medicare or ending government sponsored childrens' programming, let's get our priorities right. Please!
I know there are meanies who think BB would better serve the nation battered and fried on a plate with coleslaw and beans.
Let's just do the right thing and send him off to a generous government-paid retirement with a defined benefit and free healthcare, like no one else gets anymore.

[Eh2Zed]

Hey geniuses, did you then inform them that Sesame Workshop made $211 Million just in toy sales last year alone, and that they are richer than Romney? Did you then ask the same questions again now knowing those new facts? Lets see what their opinion would be then.

[Jeri Jo]

You should not bragg about Romneys lead as it will just make the thugs work harder. They are rolling out the busses and vans to transport from the black churches. Last week they were sleeping in the street (under well organized tents) to be the first to vote in Cleveland. Obama was here again yesterday (Cleve) to make sure everyone got early votes in so the debates wont matter it would be to darn late if they did change their minds. To bad they did not make the rule the voting wouldn't start till the debates were over. Sometimes I feel people just don't think far enough ahead but Obama took advantage of it.

[pbrower2a]

Wednesday's debate had to be one of the most demoralizing experiences that Democrats could have had in recent years. But just look at the bright side -- the Obama campaign is already taking the material and turning it against Romney.

[Pessimist]

Ohio is back on the table. smh.