Obama and Romney tied in North Carolina

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 48, representing a small shift in Obama's direction from a week and a half ago when Romney led 49-47. This now makes 27 out of 28 polls of the state PPP has conducted this cycle where the candidates have been within two points of each other.

Obama has built up a lead over the first week of the early voting period in the state. Among those who say they've already voted he's at 57% to 42% for Romney. Romney achieves the overall tie because of a 50/45 advantage among those yet to vote.

Obama's performance in the debate this week may be helping to pull him closer in the state. 50% of voters think he was the winner on Monday night to only 35% who think Romney was victorious, including a 51/21 spread among independents. He and Romney are now effectively tied among independent voters at 46/45, where Romney had a 54/40 advantage with them on our last poll.

Obama leads 53/43 among women, 88/11 with African Americans, and 58/40 with young voters. Romney is up 53/42 with men, 61/35 with whites, and 55/42 with seniors.

A key reason Obama remains competitive in North Carolina is that the Democratic base is extremely fired up. That's been reflected in the early voter turnout to date, and we also find that 77% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote in the election this fall compared to 65% of Republicans. Among African Americans 83% say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots.

Pat McCrory's expanded his lead in the Governor's race to 13 points. He's at 50% to 37% for Walter Dalton and 5% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. McCrory's favorability spread has improved to 53/32. He's up by 23 points with independents, 51/28, and he's winning over 22% of Democrats compared to Dalton's 6% of Republicans. Dalton does have a 49/44 lead among those who have already voted.

The biggest intrigue in North Carolina politics in the last week has revolved around Republican Auditor candidate Debra Goldman's unique personal life. The revelations about her seem to be hurting her candidacy- she now trails Democratic incumbent Beth Wood by 7 points at 45-38, up from a 4 point deficit at 40-36 on our last poll. Perhaps most telling in the Triangle, where this has received the largest amount of attention, Wood leads Goldman by an astounding 65/25 margin. If the story continues to makes its way out to the rest of the state Goldman is heading for a double digit defeat.

In the other Council of State races incumbents lead by varying margins- Democratic Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin is up 45-36, Republican Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry is up 43-37, Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is ahead 43-38, and Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction June Atkinson leads 42-40.

The Republican controlled General Assembly has a 19% approval rating with 50% of voters disapproving of it and Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot 46-42.

Full results here

Comments

[commonlogic]

You oversample democrats by 9 points and it's tied and you still think Obama has a chance? You're dreaming. What's sad is that you really do know how to conduct a poll and I assume you will within the final week before the election in order to maintain a degree of credibility.

[Charlie Deliopo]

surely you are joking or wishful thinking...anytime PPP come out with a poll I add about 4-5% in the GOP favor for an accurate picture.

[Rita McClain]

Oh come on...you expect us to believe this? I bet you'll show Romney up in your final NC poll just so you can claim to be accurate.

This is not 2008; get over it.

[Mike1776]

I'm sure this poll reflects a real trend,and a major cause of that trend is that Obama crushed Romney in the second and third debates.

Romney tried to shout down, bully and intimidate the President of the United States --and failed, utterly. A thoroughly contemptible performance.

Thank God (I mean it) that Romney and Lyin' Ryan are losing. What a staggering disaster they would be, if elected. More, endless, disastrous wars abroad, George W. Bush style (from the same old Bush foreign policy team Romney is now reassembling. Plus, in the ultimate irony, Taliban-style laws on social issues in the United States, giving the government, not individual women, control over women's bodies.

The new wars, plus even more huge tax cuts for the very rich, would blow up the deficit (steadily coming under control with Obama) to unheard of magnitude. Which would be the trigger for Romney and Ryan to do what they've wanted to do all
along, but dare not admit:

1. Doing away with the tax breaks (like the mortgage tax deduction) that ordinary Americans rely on while of course, obviously, leaving untouched the loopholes that save Romney personally millions in tax -- notably the capital gains tax treatment of "carried interest". Result: billionaires pay less tax than ever, ordinary Americans pay more. That's why Romney and Ryan DARE NOT answer the obvious question: "you talk about abolishing tax loopholes. Which ones would you abolish?

2. Trashing the social safety net: Medicare, Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare"), Social Security, Veterans benefits and services, and the rest

[Michael Crawford]

Give me a break. When I saw this poll I laughed right out loud. This is ridiculous. I know you liberals are not happy about how things are going. Get over it, 2008 is gone with the wind. NC is voting for Romney so get over it and stop whining. PS Pat McCrory is probably up by +20 at this point so don't get to psyched that Do-Nothing biggest dud in the world Dalton is up by 5 with early voters. Get with the program and stop being so biased, its irritating. You won't depress conservative voters either. If the best you can do is a tie and its +9 democrat then Obama will not win hahaha.

[Solomon Davidson]

These figures seem very credible and accurate - and based on sound methodology. The problem for both Obama and Romney is to bump the needle in NC - and so far neither one has been capable of doing that. With 12 days to go, I suspect there will be some intervening event that could break either way. NC is not vital to either candidate, but Obama needs to win the state in order to replicate his impressive total in the Electoral College in 2008.

[Robert]

I think the state polls reflect an Obama bump after the second and especially the third debates. Obama's win amongst independents in the third debate matches or exceeds Romney's win in the first debate. Despite efforts of Fox News and to a certain extent CNN, it is clear that Obama turned the needle after these debates. We are seeing very good trending in all the swing states for Obama, as they return back to early September numbers for Obama. This coupled with his turn out machine, will mean even the close states like NC and Florida will go to Obama. Obama has a shot at 347 electoral votes. I noticed that Real Clear Politics has been ignoring the PPP polls lately and only showing Rasmussen and Fox polls in Virginia that are more favourable to Romney. Fivethirtyeight remains the most comprehensive site.

[Surendra]

22% of the electorate has voted already with a 15% margin for Obama (http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html). That is a 3.3% lead for Mr. Obama in the bank, so the challenger has to score more than 3.3 points from the rest of the electorate in order to win. Most polls show Romney ahead by 2-3 points, so between the early voters and others (Nov 6) a tie is a possibility.

[Mitch Segel]

Garbage In, Garbage Out.

[Translation_Is]

Would like to know the minority sample size, just cant see Romney getting 11% of the Black vote unless their dead and no Latino vote reflected and North Carolina is full of Latinos. If Latino vote kicks in Mitt is toast and I believe it will.

[Courtwatcher]

No Ervin - Newby numbers?

[Bobby]

Can any body tell me or inform me. That when Republican Party gave any program which benefit American public .Name me one program which benefit your mom or your dad or your uncle or ant
Or kids with artism or any other sickness any thing except TAX CUT TAX CUT did you remember privous TAX CUT which make average American very very rich in there dreams they still counting there money .