PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state declining by 5 points over the last month, but he still has a 7 point advantage at 51-44. He led 52-40 in mid-September.
Pennsylvania voters narrowly approve of the job Obama is doing, with 49% giving him good marks to 47% who disapprove. Romney continues to have trouble connecting with voters in the Keystone State, as 44% express a favorable opinion of him to 49% who see him negatively.
Here are some of the keys for Obama in Pennsylvania:
-He's competitive with white voters, trailing Romney only 49/46. Add in Obama's 86/7 lead with African Americans and it gives him his overall advantage.
-Obama leads with both women (53/42) and men (48/46).
-Obama has a 51/41 advantage with independents.
The Pennsylvania Senate race isn't looking terribly competitive. Bob Casey leads Republican challenger Tom Smith 50-39, an 11 point lead that's pretty similar to the 10 point one we found for Casey at 46-36 in July. Casey has a 44-36 advantage with independents and he continues to enjoy greater than normal crossover support for a Democrat, taking 17% of the GOP vote. He's winning white voters 47-43 and is at 50% with both women (50-35) and men (50-43).
It doesn't look like Casey will be able to match his 18 point margin of victory from 2006 this year- but he doesn't look too vulnerable either.
Full results here