Obama and Casey lead in Pennsylvania

PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state declining by 5 points over the last month, but he still has a 7 point advantage at 51-44.  He led 52-40 in mid-September.

Pennsylvania voters narrowly approve of the job Obama is doing, with 49% giving him good marks to 47% who disapprove. Romney continues to have trouble connecting with voters in the Keystone State, as 44% express a favorable opinion of him to 49% who see him negatively.

Here are some of the keys for Obama in Pennsylvania:

-He's competitive with white voters, trailing Romney only 49/46. Add in Obama's 86/7 lead with African Americans and it gives him his overall advantage.

-Obama leads with both women (53/42) and men (48/46).

-Obama has a 51/41 advantage with independents.

The Pennsylvania Senate race isn't looking terribly competitive. Bob Casey leads Republican challenger Tom Smith 50-39, an 11 point lead that's pretty similar to the 10 point one we found for Casey at 46-36 in July. Casey has a 44-36 advantage with independents and he continues to enjoy greater than normal crossover support for a Democrat, taking 17% of the GOP vote. He's winning white voters 47-43 and is at 50% with both women (50-35) and men (50-43).

Pennsylvanians continue to be closely divided on Casey's job performance with 37% approving of him to 39% who disapprove. That's largely because he's at only 58% approval with Democrats, but even though they're not necessarily thrilled with Casey most of them are still planning to vote for him. Smith hasn't proven to be a very popular challenger, with only 33% of voters rating him favorably to 36% with a negative opinion. 31% still aren't familiar with him.

It doesn't look like Casey will be able to match his 18 point margin of victory from 2006 this year- but he doesn't look too vulnerable either.

Full results here

Comments

[George]

PPP's polls have lost all credibility by showing that the state polls are going one way and the national polls the other way (daily kos polls). Too bad!