-PPP's newest poll on Minnesota's amendment to ban gay marriage finds it running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it and 49% opposed. That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47.
The movement over the last month has been with independent voters. Where they supported the amendment 51/42 in September, they've now almost flipped and oppose it by a 52/42 margin. Women (43/51) are stronger in their opposition to it than men (49/47) are in their support. Most of the margin against the amendment is being provided by younger voters who say they plan to vote against it 53/38.
In general 47% of voters in the state say they support gay marriage to 43% who are opposed. And 74% of voters, including even 52% of Republicans, support some form of legal recognition for gay couples either in the form of marriage or civil unions.
-Things are starting to get interesting with Minnesota's voter ID amendment. When we polled on it in June it was leading for passage by a 58/34 margin. By September that had tightened to a 56/39 advantage. And now it's leading only 51/43. Democrats are now even more opposed to the voter ID amendment (23/71) than they are to the one on marriage. And although independents continue to support it their 52/41 favor for it is down a good deal from 62/33 a month ago. This fight may end up a lot closer than people initially expected.
-Democrats have a 52/40 advantage on the generic legislative ballot, including a 48/34 lead with independents. It's always hard to say exactly what a generic ballot translates to in terms of seats gained, but that should lead to a pretty healthy number of pick ups for the Democrats.
-Al Franken continues to post solid approval numbers with 49% of voters approving of him to 38% who disapprove. He leads a generic Republican foe 50-38. Tim Pawlenty (trails Franken 51-42 in a hypothetical) and Norm Coleman (trails Franken 51-41) both do slightly better than a generic GOPer. Michele Bachmann, whose statewide favorability is 33/55, does much worse and trails Franken 55-37.
-Finally we looked at how Minnesota voters feel about a former major statewide figure (Jesse Ventura) and a potential future one (R.T. Rybak). Ventura is unpopular with 29% of voters rating him favorably to 53% with a negative opinion. He is unpopular with Democrats (34/46), independents (32/49), and Republicans (18/67) alike. Rybak is seen favorably by 38% of voters with 22% holding an unfavorable opinion and 40% not having one one way or another.
Full results here