Minnesota marriage amendment narrowly trails

-PPP's newest poll on Minnesota's amendment to ban gay marriage finds it running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it and 49% opposed. That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47.

The movement over the last month has been with independent voters. Where they supported the amendment 51/42 in September, they've now almost flipped and oppose it by a 52/42 margin. Women (43/51) are stronger in their opposition to it than men (49/47) are in their support. Most of the margin against the amendment is being provided by younger voters who say they plan to vote against it 53/38.

In general 47% of voters in the state say they support gay marriage to 43% who are opposed. And 74% of voters, including even 52% of Republicans, support some form of legal recognition for gay couples either in the form of marriage or civil unions.

-Things are starting to get interesting with Minnesota's voter ID amendment. When we polled on it in June it was leading for passage by a 58/34 margin. By September that had tightened to a 56/39 advantage. And now it's leading only 51/43. Democrats are now even more opposed to the voter ID amendment (23/71) than they are to the one on marriage. And although independents continue to support it their 52/41 favor for it is down a good deal from 62/33 a month ago. This fight may end up a lot closer than people initially expected.

-Democrats have a 52/40 advantage on the generic legislative ballot, including a 48/34 lead with independents. It's always hard to say exactly what a generic ballot translates to in terms of seats gained, but that should lead to a pretty healthy number of pick ups for the Democrats.

-Mark Dayton continues to be one of the more popular Governors in the country with a 53% approval rating to 33% of voters who disapprove of him. He leads a generic Republican foe for reelection in 2014 by a 52/35 margin, including 46/26 with independents.

-Al Franken continues to post solid approval numbers with 49% of voters approving of him to 38% who disapprove. He leads a generic Republican foe 50-38. Tim Pawlenty (trails Franken 51-42 in a hypothetical) and Norm Coleman (trails Franken 51-41) both do slightly better than a generic GOPer. Michele Bachmann, whose statewide favorability is 33/55, does much worse and trails Franken 55-37.

-Finally we looked at how Minnesota voters feel about a former major statewide figure (Jesse Ventura) and a potential future one (R.T. Rybak). Ventura is unpopular with 29% of voters rating him favorably to 53% with a negative opinion. He is unpopular with Democrats (34/46), independents (32/49), and Republicans (18/67) alike. Rybak is seen favorably by 38% of voters with 22% holding an unfavorable opinion and 40% not having one one way or another.

Full results here

Comments

[Mitchpberg]

So what was your turnout model?

[TRitchie]

You know, there's this handy button where you can click to see the full results of the poll, including the crosstabs. But here, let me help you out.

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat
38%

Republican 29%

32%

[Rita McClain]

Wow, you guys have a sample of D+9 and call it an accurate poll? how do you sleep at night? The fact that you have to manipulate numbers so much to get the amendment to fail is pathetic. When it passes by double digits, I expect to see you guys explain your bias for once.

[Jake]

Rita, the fact that there are more Minnesotans self-identifying as independents/others than Republicans might indicate that a lot of Minnesotans voting for Republicans that don't identify as Republicans -- which wouldn't be surprising given the dramatic shifts from moderate Republican governance to conservative extremism in the past few years.

[Steven]

Thank you for continuing to include the "won't vote" option in your polling on the marriage amendment. I see that this choice now takes 1%, which under MN law would bring the no vote to 50%.

We'll know in a few weeks how this plays out, but there is a decent chance that this special MN rule concerning non-votes could determine the outcome.

[Liberty84]

Did anyone think that some Republicans also oppose Voter ID, that it's not just partisan opposition?

[Fatherdude]

"When it passes by double digits, I expect to see you guys explain your bias for once." Can we expect an apology from you when this doesn't happen?

[Chris]

The debate is pointless as both sides have their "opinion" but my attitude is "All men are created equal" and "Freedom for all".

Biased personal limitations will fall, if not now, then in time. Gays do not threaten or scare me. Does a gay marriage harm me, my (man/woman) marriage, or marriage in general? I don't see how.

[Dawg]

hopefully we can keep society healthy and vote to ban gay marriage, I just think it's unfair they should have it where you need so many in favor of banning to get it to pass, where the no votes don't count, if it was the other way people would be protesting it. It should just be a majority rules

[Joseph Norquist]

Here is my observation:
We redefined marriage in the Bible when we told David that you can’t have more than three wives. And Jacob you can’t have six wives. And King Solomon, Sir, you’ve got to get rid of 699 wives.

We redefined marriage when we allowed by law, just 45 years ago, people of color to marry white people.

We redefined marriage, the word, when we allowed dictionaries to say,”the 
marriage of two chemicals”, the “marriage of two ideologies” or the “marriage of two
Fortune-500 companies”.

We redefined marriage about 250 years ago when men and women began to marry, not for family or business or community reasons, but for love of each other.

,,,,,when we allowed frivolous weddings on a 100-ft. tower in Las Vegas or under water in a Hollywood swimming pool without mentioning Providence.

.... when we made divorce too easy and stopped pledging “until death do us part.”

.... when we allowed fathers to ignore their parental responsibility.

We redefine marriage now because in the twentieth century we have witnessed the acceptance of GLBT people in all walks of life and the success of thousands of families parented by same-sex couples with love, discipline, security, devotion, and outstanding children. People of Faith support marriage and are going to vote NO in NOvember. Dr. Joe Norquist

[Ted]

To take this debate to another level, who are we as people, as MNs, as Americans, trying to emulate or identify with? Germany held that gays were to be eliminated because they also did not fit their mold of the dominant race. today, many repressive governments enforce the illegality, and many times immortality, of being gay. What is underneath our need to put this into our constitution? I don't feel this is an innocent yes or no vote.
By the way, wanting to have a simple majority to change our constitution, that opens the door to many more frivolous, in my opinion, challenges to the constitution.