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October 03, 2012


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Obama 2012

And this before the "giving abortions to women who aren't pregnant" quote makes the rounds. Todd Akin is an idiot and would be a true embarrassment to Missouri.

At some point pride has to kick in, you just can't possibly want this fool representing your state unless you're certifiably insane yourself.


Kinda weird on the crosstabs. The Romney lead consists of 10.8 points among whites (55-42x.83) minus 7.2 points among AA (76-16X.12) plus 2.2 among other (63-26X.06). Even if you think that what looks like a low Obama margin with AAs (60 v. 86 in '08) is balanced out by an equally low Romney lead with whites (13 v. 15 in '08), the number for all other races (63-26 Romney) looks strange. The '08 exit polls didn't break down for these groups in Missouri specifically, but the national exit polls were 67-31 Hispanic, 62-35 Asian, and 66-31 Other. Nothing I've seen in the limited polling for these groups this election cycle shows any great departures from those margins. Even if you went with a straight 50-50 split, which would be Romney-favorable, the lead would be down to 3.6, and if you went with the '08 exit polling for these groups, it would be down to 1.4-1.8. Bottom line is that I think Romney is leading but that the margin might be closer than we see here. Interesting stuff, and I'm curious to see how it turns out!


"-93% of Missouri voters think you can get pregnant from being raped to 4% who think you can't and 4% who are unsure.

-Only 27% of voters think McCaskill is 'un-ladylike' as Akin suggested last week."

What a world we live in, when there's a reason to even ask these questions.

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