Democrats lead Senate races in Virginia and Wisconsin

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's new Virginia and Wisconsin Senate polls find the Democratic candidates in position to hold onto both of these open seats in next month's election.

There's been a big shift over the last three weeks in Virginia. After months of polling showing a tied race, Tim Kaine has now broken open a 51-44 advantage over George Allen. Just three weeks ago the candidates were separated by only a point at 47-46.

The big shift over the last three weeks has been with independent voters, who've gone from being effectively tied to supporting Kaine by a 53/40 margin. Kaine's also cut Allen's lead with white voters almost in half from 16 points at 55-39 to 9 points at 52-43. Any Democrat who can hold a Republican to a single digit advantage with white voters in Virginia is going to win handily. Kaine's also leading with both women (53-41) and men (49-47).

The Wisconsin Senate race has been very steady over the last month. Tammy Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson by a 3 point margin, 49-46. PPP's done three polls there since Labor Day and Baldwin's held a 3-4 point lead in every one of them.

No one would have imagined six months ago that Baldwin would have a bigger lead in Wisconsin than Barack Obama. But Thompson has proven to be quite a weak candidate. Only 43% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Those numbers are quite a bit worse than Mitt Romney's 49/48 spread in the state.

Baldwin leads mostly thanks to a 52/40 advantage with independent voters. She's up big with women (50/43) while managing to run about even with men, trailing only 48-47. She's running even with white voters at 47% and leads with non-whites 65-30.

“Virginia and Wisconsin looked like great pick up opportunities for Republicans a few months ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But now the Democratic candidates are consistently polling ahead in these races.”

PPP surveyed 979 likely Wisconsin voters from October 4^th to 6th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.1%.  The Virginia survey interviewed 725 likely voters from October 4^th to 7^th with a margin of error of +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Virginia Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable........................................................ 44%
Unfavorable .................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable........................................................ 50%
Unfavorable .................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q3 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George
Allen. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Tim Kaine........................................................ 51%
George Allen................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 15%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 19%
Moderate......................................................... 27%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 27%
Very conservative ........................................... 13%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 53%
Man................................................................. 47%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 38%
Republican...................................................... 32%
Independent/Other.......................................... 30%

Q7 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 75%
African-American ............................................ 18%
Other............................................................... 7%

Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 24%
46 to 65........................................................... 42%
Older than 65.................................................. 22%

Wisconsin Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable........................................................ 44%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable........................................................ 43%
Unfavorable .................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q3 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Tommy Thompson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin............................................... 49%
Tommy Thompson .......................................... 46%
Undecided....................................................... 6%

Q4 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ...................................................... 46%
Republicans .................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 18%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 24%
Very conservative ........................................... 16%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 51%
Man................................................................. 49%

Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 34%
Republican...................................................... 33%
Independent/Other.......................................... 33%

Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White .............................................................. 91%
Other............................................................... 9%

Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 15%
30 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 39%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%