Polls

Carmona holds small lead in Arizona Senate race

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C.–
PPP’s newest poll of the Arizona Senate
race finds Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican foe Jeff Flake 45-43.
That represents a small shift in Carmona’s direction since our last poll of the
state three weeks ago, which had found Flake ahead by just a 44-43 margin.

There’s two things you have to do to win as a Democrat in a pretty
Republican leaning state like Arizona: win independents and a get a healthy
amount of crossover support from GOP voters. Right now Carmona’s doing both of
those things. He has a 52/37 advantage over Flake with independents. And he’s
winning over 14% of Republicans while losing just 7% of Democrats. Carmona’s
net favorability is a +8 spread (35/27), while Flake’s is -1 at 40/41.

There are still reasons to think this race could shift back in Flake’s
favor. The 12% of voters who are undecided prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama
for President by a 58/37 margin, so there’s reason to think they might end up
breaking toward Flake in the end. Also Arizona voters would generally prefer
that Republicans be in control of the Senate rather than the Democrats by a
50/40 spread. That Carmona leads anyway is a function of him being superior to
Flake as a candidate, but that still leaves open the possibility that if
Republicans can effectively nationalize the election Flake’s standing will
improve.

“The Arizona Senate race really belongs in the toss up column at this
point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Our last three
polls there have all found the candidates within 2 points of each other.
Richard Carmona’s strength as a candidate is helping him overcome the
Republican lean of the state.”

Arizona may go Democratic in the Presidential race sometime but it doesn’t
appear likely to be this year. We find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 53-44
in the state. This is a rare state where a majority of voters actually see
Romney favorably. 54% have a positive opinion of him to 42% with a negative
one. And Obama’s quite unpopular with just 40% of voters approving of him to
57% who disapprove.

PPP surveyed 595
likely Arizona voters from October 1st to 3rd. The margin of error
for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q7 If the candidates for President were Democrat
Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and
Libertarian Gary Johnson, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Carmona?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q10 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Richard Carmona and Republican Jeff Flake. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Richard Carmona…………………………………….. 45%
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jan
Brewer’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .46%
Not sure …………….. . 7%

Q12 Generally speaking, would you like the next
Governor of Arizona to be a Democrat or a
Republican?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
McCain’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .51%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Kyl’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .20%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Arpaio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q16 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 40%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q17 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 61%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 24%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 15%

Q18 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 44%
He should not………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q19 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q23 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q24 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 42%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Related Polls