Rubio edges Bush for Florida 2016, Hillary way up

After his star performance at the convention last week Florida Republicans say they'd slightly prefer Marco Rubio to Jeb Bush as their Presidential candidate in 2016, in the event that Mitt Romney loses this fall. 24% say Rubio would be their top choice to 22% for Bush, with Condoleezza Rice at 12%, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and Paul Ryan all at 10%, Rand Paul at 4%, Sarah Palin at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 1%.

Rubio leads the way thanks to strong support from Tea Party voters. He stands at 34% with them to 18% for Bush, 15% for Ryan, and 12% for Huckabee.  He also has the advantage with evangelicals at 29% to 17% for Bush, 14% for Huckabee, and 11% each for Rice and Ryan. Bush draws his support from more middle of the road Republicans, leading Rubio 24-16 with moderates and 27-21 with 'somewhat conservative' voters.

One thing that's clear is there will be a lot of potential candidates who GOP voters love in 2016 if Romney falters. 4 of the candidates come in over 80% in their personal numbers with Republican voters- Rice at 90/6, Bush at 87/8, Rubio at 87/9, and Ryan at 84/9.

It's a completely different story on the Democratic side in terms of the depth of the bench. Hillary Clinton at 84/11 is the only potential candidate on that front over 80%, at 84/11. Joe Biden's the only other Democrat we tested who even has over 50% name recognition, coming in at 69/20. By contrast everyone else we tested on the GOP side has a favorability rating over 50%- Chris Christie at 71/13, Sarah Palin at 66/23, Rick Santorum at 60/19, and Rand Paul at 52/25 round out the people we tested.

Beyond Clinton and Biden the Democrats simply aren't that well known. Andrew Cuomo has 50% name recognition, Elizabeth Warren has 38%, Martin O'Malley and Deval Patrick 23%, Mark Warner 20%, and Brian Schweitzer 16%.

Clinton is overwhelmingly who Florida Democrats would like as their next candidate. 67% pick her to 11% for Biden, 8% for Cuomo, and 2% for Warren. All of the other Democrats measure at less than 1%, with 11% undecided. Clinton polls at 74% with liberals, 71% with seniors, 70% with whites, 70% with African Americans, 68% with men, 67% with women, 67% with moderates, 64% with young voters, and 57% with Hispanics. There's no segment of the party that she's not extremely strong with.

If Clinton didn't run Biden would be the first choice of Democrats at 31% to 21% for Cuomo, 8% for Warren, 6% for O'Malley, 2% each for Patrick and Warner, and less than 1% for Schweitzer. And if neither Clinton nor Biden runs it's really up for grabs- 43% of voters would be undecided in that instance with 31% for Cuomo, 10% for Warren, 7% for Patrick, 6% for O'Malley, 3% for Warner, and less than 1% for Schweitzer.

Full results here

Comments

[DoobMartingale]

Although this is interesting stuff, you know that none of it will survive the next four years. Only four contenders will survive with any certainty. Hillary will; Mike Huckabee, who has a loyal following; Jeb Bush also has a following, as does Marco Rubio. There are many fine emerging Democratic politicians, but "emerging" isn't "emerged".

Several of these contenders will probably be leaving the arena soon. Ron Paul, for example, will be 81. Not all politicians at this age are ready to retire, but most are. John McCain, of course, is out.

Joe Biden probably won't be limited by age (he'll be "only 73" in 2016) but has a medical history that will soon cause crocodile tears of concern, particularly with Sarah Palin running an ongoing campaign of sarcastic cracks about his age. He had a nearly fatal aneurysm in the 1980s. It is certain that the Republicans will follow Palin's lead in High School campaign tactics. On the other hand, if Republican extremism subsides, Palin may become a footnote like Dan Quayle, who's shown a lot more classiness than Palin.

Chris Christie has some extremely derogative baggage (including an unwise, if innocent, association with a mobster early in his career), and the longer he's in the field, the more likely he is to have to face it. He may indeed be able to overcome the negatives, but when it starts coming out, he will face a period of wanderiing in the proverbial wilderness. That can also happen to any of the Democrats if they have similar histories.

So aside from Hillary, Huck, Jeb, and the young Mr. Rubio, none of the survey's results are in any way prophetic for 2016. Which is probably to our benefit.