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September 05, 2012

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DoobMartingale

Although this is interesting stuff, you know that none of it will survive the next four years. Only four contenders will survive with any certainty. Hillary will; Mike Huckabee, who has a loyal following; Jeb Bush also has a following, as does Marco Rubio. There are many fine emerging Democratic politicians, but "emerging" isn't "emerged".

Several of these contenders will probably be leaving the arena soon. Ron Paul, for example, will be 81. Not all politicians at this age are ready to retire, but most are. John McCain, of course, is out.

Joe Biden probably won't be limited by age (he'll be "only 73" in 2016) but has a medical history that will soon cause crocodile tears of concern, particularly with Sarah Palin running an ongoing campaign of sarcastic cracks about his age. He had a nearly fatal aneurysm in the 1980s. It is certain that the Republicans will follow Palin's lead in High School campaign tactics. On the other hand, if Republican extremism subsides, Palin may become a footnote like Dan Quayle, who's shown a lot more classiness than Palin.

Chris Christie has some extremely derogative baggage (including an unwise, if innocent, association with a mobster early in his career), and the longer he's in the field, the more likely he is to have to face it. He may indeed be able to overcome the negatives, but when it starts coming out, he will face a period of wanderiing in the proverbial wilderness. That can also happen to any of the Democrats if they have similar histories.

So aside from Hillary, Huck, Jeb, and the young Mr. Rubio, none of the survey's results are in any way prophetic for 2016. Which is probably to our benefit.

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