Rest of Florida Poll

-PPP's newest Florida Senate poll finds Bill Nelson continuing to expand his lead. He's at 46% to 37% for Connie Mack IV. Three weeks ago Nelson led by 7 points and in early July he had been ahead by only 2.

Nelson's still not popular. Only 34% of voters approve of him to 41% who disapprove. But he lucked out with an extremely weak opponent. Only 30% of voters have a favorable opinion of Mack to 44% with a negative one. Mack's numbers are a particularly dreadful 22/53 spread with independents, and he trails Nelson by 22 points with them at 48-26.

The most striking finding in the poll is that Nelson leads Mack 44-41 with white voters. If a Democrat can win white voters in Florida they're headed for a blowout victory overall, and increasingly that appears to be the case in this race

-Mitt Romney didn't get much of a bounce out of the Republican convention in Florida, but Marco Rubio sure has. His approval breakdown this month is 52/32, the best we've found for him since he took office. He's on solid 50/33 ground with independents and has a higher than normal 26% of Democrats who approve of him. Rubio's approval numbers were pretty middling for the last year and a half but he's seen a noticeable improvement since the convention.

-38% of Florida voters approve of Rick Scott this month to 48% who disapprove. His numbers, although still bad, continue to be better than they've been for most of his term. Scott trails a generic Democratic opponent for reelection by a 48/42 margin.

One specific person who seems like he could be the Democratic candidate for Governor in 2014 is Charlie Crist. He leads Scott 48-43 in a hypothetical contest. Crist is not an overwhelmingly popular figure in Florida anymore though. 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 43% with a negative one. His numbers with Democrats (up from 44/33 to 55/22) and Republicans (down from 24/60 to 19/69) have headed in opposite directions in the three weeks since he appeared at the Democratic convention. 48% of voters think he should complete the switch and become a Democrat to 21% who think he should not and that sentiment is held among Democrats (61/11) and Republicans (40/33) alike.

-And finally Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in Florida 47-43.

Full results here

Comments

[SC Guy]

My opinion is that the 44%-36% Dem advantage in Florida is just off, which shows why Obama is 'ahead' rather than tied. Even in 2008, Dems only held a 3 point advantage (37%-34%) so I think you are off in FL.

Don't forget the 'rising tide lifts all ships' fact. Recent polling found Romney up 56%-35% in neighboring Georgia that only went 52%-47% for McCain in 2008. My point is that the South often votes as a block and one of the reasons Obama did so well in VA, NC and FL in 2008 was that McCain was doing poorly in the Southeast as a whole (in GA as mentioned and he won fire engine red SC by just 9 points). My guess is that northern Florida and the panhandle which are similar to most of the rest of the South are going much more strongly for Romney than they did for McCain.

It's hard for me to imagine Romney losing Florida.

[Burton]

How about a poll of Indiana. Very little polling there. Wondering if the race is at all close there as it was in 2008?

[Jeepgeek]

So, read the Demos, you polled 44-36-20... How does that compare to Fla turnout in 2008, 2010?