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September 25, 2012

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SC Guy

My opinion is that the 44%-36% Dem advantage in Florida is just off, which shows why Obama is 'ahead' rather than tied. Even in 2008, Dems only held a 3 point advantage (37%-34%) so I think you are off in FL.

Don't forget the 'rising tide lifts all ships' fact. Recent polling found Romney up 56%-35% in neighboring Georgia that only went 52%-47% for McCain in 2008. My point is that the South often votes as a block and one of the reasons Obama did so well in VA, NC and FL in 2008 was that McCain was doing poorly in the Southeast as a whole (in GA as mentioned and he won fire engine red SC by just 9 points). My guess is that northern Florida and the panhandle which are similar to most of the rest of the South are going much more strongly for Romney than they did for McCain.

It's hard for me to imagine Romney losing Florida.

Burton

How about a poll of Indiana. Very little polling there. Wondering if the race is at all close there as it was in 2008?

Jeepgeek

So, read the Demos, you polled 44-36-20... How does that compare to Fla turnout in 2008, 2010?

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