Obama up by 3 in Colorado

PPP's first post-convention Colorado poll finds Barack Obama continuing to hold the lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 49-46. This is, however, the closest PPP has found the race in four Colorado polls this year suggesting that Romney may have received a modest bounce in the state.

Last month we found Obama ahead by a 49-43 margin in Colorado. But in the wake of his selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate and the Republican convention Romney has consolidated the GOP vote, going from an 85-10 advantage with his party base to an 89-8 one. He continues to trail in the state because of his struggles with independents there though. Obama has a 48-41 lead with them, a trend that's been consistent in our polling there all year.

We're seeing the same trends in Colorado that we're seeing everywhere in terms of where Obama and Romney's support is coming from. Obama is up 52-44 with women, 55-38 with non-white voters, and 53-40 with voters under 45. Romney's up 49-46 with men, 49-47 with white voters, and 51-46 with voters over 45. Obviously if Obama can continue to keep the race close to break even with whites and men his prospects in Colorado are going to be pretty darn good.

Colorado makes yet another swing state where a plurality of voters both disapprove of Barack Obama and have an unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney. 48% think Obama's doing a good job to 49% who are unhappy with him. Those numbers are almost identical to a month ago. 46% of voters see Romney positively to 50% with a negative opinion. That represents a net 3 point improvement from last month when he was at -7 (44/51), consistent with the modest improvements we saw in his image in North Carolina and Florida.

We also tested an iteration of the race in Colorado including Libertarian Gary Johnson. He pulls 5% and takes slightly more from Obama than Romney, pushing Obama's lead down to 46-44 when he's in the picture.

How much the convention has to do with Romney's improvement is unclear. 33% of voters say it made them more likely to vote for Romney, 32% say it made them less likely to, and 35% say it didn't make a difference to them either way. The biggest stars of the convention appear to have been Condoleezza Rice who has a 65/22 favorability rating, including 46/35 with Democrats, and Ann Romney who comes in at 50/31. Voters didn't think much of Clint Eastwood's speech- 37% rate it favorably to 38% with an unfavorable opinion- but they still have a highly positive opinion of him overall with 75% seeing him favorably to 8% with a negative view.

The other primetime speakers at the Republican convention have all made a good impression on Colorado voters- Susana Martinez comes in at +20 (33/13), Marco Rubio at +18 (43/25), Chris Christie at +9 (41/32), and Paul Ryan at +5 (47/42).

Other notes from Colorado:

-One of the reasons for Romney's lacking convention bump may simply be that he's not seen as that strong of a public speaker. 56% of voters in the state think Obama gives better speeches to 32% for Romney. Romney just wasn't likely to give the kind of out of this world speech on Thursday night that would have moved the numbers.

-51% of voters think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns to 40% who think he should not. The spread is 54/36 with independents.

Full results here

Comments

[C4LCNCPLS]

Romney was beat before he even got started.
The early polls showed that the only candidate that
could take the votes away from Obama to beat Obama
was Ron Paul.

And, after the fiasco at the RNC, you can bet independents will go back to Obama or over to Gary Johnson.

The GOP/RNC are fools. They didn't learn anything in 2008.
They keep doing the same ting over and over again expecting
different results!

[PockASqueeno]

Gary Johnson 2012

[Gomusicgo]

Most of the Paul supporters will consider Johnson. All of the Libertarians. The disenfranchised Republicans and Democrats will consider him, as well as Independents,, IF they learn more about him. Blocking him from the polls and media blackouts are not doing Americans justice. Ideally, he should be included in the presidential debates. It would add a fresh point of view and challenge Romney and Obama on their ideology.

The time has passed for telling Americans that there is only two choices (especially when they are so similar of critical issues). Johnson is a successful 2 term governor (twice as much experience as Romney) and left his state with a balanced budget and a billion dollar surplus. He has earned the right to be viewed by America, in polls and debates.

[jay]

Obama and Romney are two sides of the same coin, and while I am exaggerating this connection, I will still make it. The Dems are "left WING", Reps are "right WING" Corporations are the body that is the American Eagle.

Vote for Libertarian candidate and former two-term Governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson. Gary Johnson is fiscally conservative and socially liberal. He is the only candidate that wants to end the wars we are in, and end the failed Drug War. With no prior political experience, Gary Johnson became Governor despite being a Republican in a 2-1 Democratic state. While in office, he vetoed over 740 spending bills and over 1,000 line item vetos, never once raised taxes while lowering then 14 times, and left New Mexico (after winning.
a second term) with a one billion dollar surplus. Gary Johnson also began his own company and grew it to 1,000 people.
It is now one of the biggest construction.
companies in New Mexico.

THIS is the type of President we need right now. Not Obama. Not Romney.

Many will say that a vote for a third party is a vote wasted, or a vote for Obama, or that a third party could never win, but the truth is, you are wrong. The polls Johnson has been on has shown that he takes equally from both Obama and Romney, not to mention those who have become fed up with the Left and Right. Those who say that a third party could never win need to realize that it is because of folks like themselves that it hasn't already happened yet. Instead of treating elections like a race to be won, people need to stop voting based just on party and start voting their conscience. Isidewith.com is a survey site which asks you a series of political questions and the topics importance to you. Results have shown that, if folks based solely on the issues, Gary Johnson would win hands down. Another thing that I hear is that, since a third party will never win, we should vote lesser of two evils, if that isn't a waste of a vote, I don't know what it, again, we must vote our conscience.

So this election, instead of voting for the "lesser of two evils" vote your conscience and take part in bringing about real change.

Vote Gary Johnson 2012! LIVE FREE!

http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/

http://www.isidewith.com/

[DREGstudios]

The dynamic duo of Romney and Ryan would drive the entire economy into a nose dive as long as it benefits the richest Americans. Income inequality is endangering the Middle Class and making paupers of us all who don’t have those millions upon millions of dollars. Read more about the role of Romney’s riches in this election and the power of his sacred undergarments at http://dregstudiosart.blogspot.com/2012/05/mitt-romneys-magic-mormon-underwear.html The working class of our country can’t AFFORD to allow this election to be bought and sold!