PPP's first likely voters survey of Minnesota voters finds a much closer race than earlier in the year, although Barack Obama still has a solid 7 point lead over Mitt Romney at 51-44. That's down from an average lead of 12.5 points for Obama on PPP's two previous polls of the state in 2012.
Minnesota voters only narrowly approve of Obama with 50% giving him good marks to 48% who disapprove. But Romney is pretty unpopular with the state's voters- only 43% have a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative one.
Each candidate has his party base pretty much locked up. Obama gets 94% of Democrats, while Romney takes 92% of Republicans. Obama's lead comes in large part thanks to a 48-39 advantage with independent voters. Obama has his customary large lead with women in Minnesota (54-40) while trailing Romney only 48-47 with men.
The Presidential race in Minnesota might end up closer than it was in 2008 but the state doesn't look like a toss up by any stretch of the imagination.
The Senate contest in Minnesota continues to look like a blow out. Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar leads Republican challenger Kurt Bills by a 55-36 margin. The race has tightened since Klobuchar led by 26 points in early June but she hasn't actually lost any ground. Bills has just moved from 29% to 36% as his name recognition has doubled from 20% back then to now 41%.
Klobuchar is winning 16% of the Republican vote while losing only 2% of Democrats, and also has a 52-32 lead with independents. She continues to be one of the most popular Senators in the country with 57% of voters approving of her to 31% who disapprove. She doesn't have much to worry about this year.
Full results here
Obama seems to be losing a bit of ground in states like Minnesota where he plenty of ground to lose but in swing states he's holding on nicely. Not sure why this is... maybe because of Obama ads in swing states? If this thing breaks open into landslide territory it would be cool if Obama expanded his ads nationally... maybe it would lead to down ballot coat tails.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | September 13, 2012 at 02:22 PM
Can we have a South Carolina Poll? Georgia, Indiana, Montana would also be nice.
Posted by: Caught in a moment | September 14, 2012 at 09:11 AM
No question on the Minnesota marriage constitutional amendment question? It is probably the closest statewide contest in MN this year.
Posted by: Terje | September 14, 2012 at 05:38 PM