PPP's first likely voters survey of Minnesota voters finds a much closer race than earlier in the year, although Barack Obama still has a solid 7 point lead over Mitt Romney at 51-44. That's down from an average lead of 12.5 points for Obama on PPP's two previous polls of the state in 2012.
Minnesota voters only narrowly approve of Obama with 50% giving him good marks to 48% who disapprove. But Romney is pretty unpopular with the state's voters- only 43% have a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative one.
Each candidate has his party base pretty much locked up. Obama gets 94% of Democrats, while Romney takes 92% of Republicans. Obama's lead comes in large part thanks to a 48-39 advantage with independent voters. Obama has his customary large lead with women in Minnesota (54-40) while trailing Romney only 48-47 with men.
The Presidential race in Minnesota might end up closer than it was in 2008 but the state doesn't look like a toss up by any stretch of the imagination.
The Senate contest in Minnesota continues to look like a blow out. Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar leads Republican challenger Kurt Bills by a 55-36 margin. The race has tightened since Klobuchar led by 26 points in early June but she hasn't actually lost any ground. Bills has just moved from 29% to 36% as his name recognition has doubled from 20% back then to now 41%.
Klobuchar is winning 16% of the Republican vote while losing only 2% of Democrats, and also has a 52-32 lead with independents. She continues to be one of the most popular Senators in the country with 57% of voters approving of her to 31% who disapprove. She doesn't have much to worry about this year.
Full results here