Obama up 5 in Virginia

PPP's newest Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading by 5 points, 51-46. Obama's lead is unchanged from a month ago when we found him leading 50-45 in the state. He may not be seeing a bump from the convention in the state at this point, but he was in a pretty good position to begin with.

Virginia continues to look like it may be something of a firewall state for Obama. PPP has now polled it 9 times this cycle, and President Obama has led by at least 4 points on all 9 of the polls. He's been ahead by 5 points, 5 points, 8 points, and 8 points over the course of the four surveys we've conducted in 2012.

Obama has a slight advantage over Romney (49-47) in terms of who voters trust more on the economy and a wider (51-45) edge over Romney on foreign policy. Only 41% of voters say they approve of how Romney reacted to the situation in Libya this week while 48% express disapproval.

Obama's leading 56-42 with women, 91-7 with African Americans, 63-30 with other non-white voters, and 56-37 with young voters. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with men, a 57-40 one with whites, and a 54-43 lead with seniors. Romney is slightly ahead with independents, 47-45, but Obama's party is more unified with Democrats supporting him 95-4 while Republicans go for Romney by a slightly weaker 92-7 margin.

One thing playing to Democrats' advantage in Virginia is that their voters are actually more excited than Republicans about the election now, contrary to the conventional wisdom for most of this cycle. 73% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall compared to 63% of GOP voters. Women (64%) are more enthusiastic about voting than men (60%), African Americans (85%) are more excited than white voters (57%), and  young voters (72%) are more excited than seniors (62%). Republicans can't count on winning back Virginia just by the Obama base staying home because it's still pretty enthusiastic.

There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of Virgil Goode tipping the election to Obama in Virginia but our new poll finds that his support has mostly faded. When third party candidates are included on this poll Obama leads Romney 49-45 with Gary Johnson at 2% and Goode and Jill Stein both at just 1%. Goode's net favorability with Republican voters has dropped a net 15 points in the last month from +3 (19/16) to -12 (14/26), suggesting that many of the party faithful are not happy about the possibility of him having a spoiler effect.

Two other notes:

-Virginians narrowly approve of Obama (50/48) and narrowly have an unfavorable opinion of Romney (47/49).

-By a 50/43 margin voters in the state think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns.

Full results here

Comments

[Hasan]

So everyone says you have a Democratic lean but I just checked your last Virginia poll in 2008 (on 11/02) and you called it 52-46, compared to the actual 52.7-46.4! This is very good news for the President :)

[Mike]

Since you don't release your partisan splits this poll is worthless for anything than driving a narrative. I'm betting you are using a 2008 turn out model, despite the fact that voter self identification is currently R +3. I bet you are at least D+8

[John Difool]

Funny, Organizing for America was out & about in my area in Henrico Co.over the weekend doing their own polling & now this comes out on Monday.

Hmmmmmmm.....

IMO, most left-leaning polling like PPP that heavily sample Democrats only exist to make conservatives think they're losing to discourage them from voting.

I'm willing to bet the true numbers in Va. are closer to +5-+7 Romney.

[3rjc]

Hasan,

Every polling outfit eschews their political lean in their last pre-election poll.

[Johnny OBrien]

2008 model is outdate Hasan, the 2011 model has a 39/36/ advantage for republicans.. If you hadn't noticed the dem's got their ass kicked in 2009/2010 elections because of the guy in the White House and the path of destruction he is taking us down, PPP has it's nose stuck up his rear end so this poll should be taken with a grain of salf because it is no more than propaganda

[Jean]

You oversample democrats. This is not 2008. Conservatives know what you are doing. It won't work.

[MNMVR]

These results are meaningless unless and until you include the partisan breakdown of those polled. With all the data you include it is easy to guess why that is missing. Like other left leaning polls that skew the sample to favor Obama you and yours skew as well, unless of course a dem is legitimately winning as in the example cited elsewhere in comments.

[John Davies]

I didn't see the breakdown between D/R/I. Without that your poll is meaningless.

[Chris S]

and very bad news for the country

[suzy000]

This is silly...we have 4.00 a gal. gas, riots across the globe with people who hate us since Obama reset foreign policy, 23 Million UNEMPLOYED Americans with a million of illegals getting work permits as we speak. What is going on with the American voter? Our debt is 16 TRILLION dollars with no Obama budget showing cuts. We are going down the tube and Americans want more of the same. God help us.

[glezzery]

So, if the GOP gets out the vote, and Independents, Seniors, Men, and Whites favor Romney, how is it even possible to behind Obama?! I think something stinks! Seems to me everyone is using voter turn out and registration from 2008. Mistake.

[Johnny OBrien]

PPP censors it's readers also, a real propaganda machine for Obama

[Amash]

This isn't 2080. Using those numbers favoring democrats doesn't work try using 2010. That's closer to the numbers that will take place. Don't try and convince any rep. That enthusiasm is better for
Owe lamer than Romney. You are dead wrong on that.

[bill c]

There is no good news for this president and there will continue to be no good news until he is voted out of office.

[Jim]

Absolutely no way Obama wins Virginia again. Look at the state voting history:

http://piqscore.com/virginia/

Virginia has been a stalwart Red State for more than a generation, even in 1992-1996, when Ross Perot was siphoning votes from Bush and Dole. It's historical PIQ score is PIQ-54 (on a scale of 0-100). Romney by 4.

[Jojo]

How did PPP call it on Sept 17, 2008? What was the R/D/I split on Sept 17, 2008? How did that compare with the R/D/I split in the election?

[woodNfish]

This is what they polled on? What a load of BS.

[Steve from Wisconsin]

So where are the crosstabs showing the breakdown (Democrats, Republicans, independents) interviewed? Oh, that's right - PPP never releases this, because their polls are a joke!

[Ryan]

If you people would calm down for just a second and locate the hyperlink that says "Full Results Here" you'd find the partisan breakdown of the poll on page 2 of the press release, just like every other PPP Poll.

[polifrog]

From the microscopic crosstabs...

Obama Approval among independents:
approve - 46%
disapprove - 51%

Romney Favorability among independents:
favorable - 48%
unfavorable - 45%

Over sampling democrats relative to republicans corrects for the issue hinted at above.

[Ricky Waters]

Geez people!

While I agree that polls are only snapshots in time, some folks here are automatically claiming bias, saying that the partisan breakdown is not there. If you actually read the .PDF, you'll see that Question # 13 asks this very question to the folks being surveyed.

Republican 32
Democrat 35
Independent/Other 33

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_VA_91612.pdf

To that point, there is no polling conspiracy going on nationwide. The only reputable polling agency in the country that has Romney leading anywhere is Rasmussen, and that poll really doesn't matter. At this point in the race, its all about state poll. To start attacking the polls is a sure sign that you're losing ..... so said Ronald Reagan.

Lastly, to be up front and honest, I'm a Libertarian/conservative Democrat. I have in the past quite often supported "Republicans". The reason for all the angst in the Republican base for the last couple weeks is because the Republican party chose a weak candidate. PERIOD. The strongest amongst a very WEAK field of candidates. And he barely got over the finish line. Had it not been for his monetary advantage, Santorum would have whipped him.

Romney's biggest problem is that he's a moderate, pro-gay marriage, lenient on Abortion rights, moderate on anti-gun legislation, and all the other things that are anathema to the Teavangelical Conservative base that is the Republican party today.

As I said above, I have voted often for Republicans, but I'll never vote for anybody that is so whishy-washy as Romney. Call Pres. Obama whatever you will; Jihadist, socialist, Nazi, etc, etc, etc ... but at least you know where he stands. It's like Mike Huckabee said 4 years ago ....... Romney has no soul, no compass. He's not a movement conservative, and that's why he's losing

[Ethan]

Am I missing something? I thought Wisconsin was also being polled over the weekend? When do those get released?

[Stanley Lawless]

Lots of upset wrong wingers in here. Don't cry over the milk kids; spilt or otherwise. Romney hasn't a hell's chance in winning anyway. Get real.

[Accidental Superman]

@ suzy000 Quit blaming Obama for Bushes mess, and no Bush won't be forgotten until the debt he racked up for his buddies and two wars he didn't pay for. I remember the whole "support our troops!" emotional black mail, how about Bush and Cheney with Iraq? They lied, they pressured the CIA to make up evidence, then when the easy part was done (the conventional war) the Bush admin. didn't have a plan, they didn't think. That is shameful, Bush lowered the standard for the president of the united states of america.

The rest of the world does not hate you because of Obama, the recent riots are because some stupid, hate mongering right wing extremist has made a film depicting their prophet as a pedophile, coward and etc. They probably don't understand why the video is still on youtube and so think the US government endorses the video because why would they keep something that inflaming online?

For those still set on voting for Romney because he isn't Obama, the guy isn't fit for office. He screwed up a visit to the British olympics! How do you do that?! Oh thats right he insulted them, and then he goes to Israel, pisses off the Palestinians, and then compliments the Israeli's health care not knowing that they have had universal healthcare since the formation of Israeli state in 1947. He is more of the same old, the convention speech and policies have no substance.

Did you know that "Obamacare" was modeled on Romneycare, its what Mitt Romney created for Massachusetts when he was governor, now hes against his own policy hows that for flip flopping? It isn't universal healthcare, but it is a step in the right direction as you can see Australia is doing alot better for it, Canada is too, England... the list goes on, America is the odd one out and is paying for it)

Infact your world standing has dramaticaly improved since his election, although his continuation of the Bush admin. middle east policy has since returned approval just above Bush levels and the hundreds of drone strikes hes authorised in Yemen and Pakistan are going further than Bush ever did.

I like the conservatives here in Australia, I disagree with them, but they are by order of magnitudes more trustworthy, honest and sane than the majority of Republicans in the USA.

I'm glad that there is a movement of new Republicans that are for moderation and compromise, like other independents I hope Romney loses badly thus beginning a revolution in the Republican party as they attempt to adapt to the changing demographics and issues that are of concern for Americans.

[Accidental Superman]

And the republicans are obstructing any policies that would help the economy, employment etc. because and I quote: "our top political priority should be to make Obama a single term president" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-A09a_gHJc

“Our single biggest political goal is to give our nominee for president the maximum opportunity to be successful. … We need to work smarter than we did [in 1995], and not become the foil off which [President Obama] pivots.”

[Todd Dugdale]

It seems as if the wingnuts miss that hyper-link on every poll. They snarl about D/R/I, but they never can manage to click on the link to see the cross-tabs.