Obama leads narrowly in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's first post-convention Colorado poll finds Barack Obama continuing to hold the lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 49-46. This is, however, the closest PPP has found the race in four Colorado polls this year suggesting that Romney may have received a modest bounce in the state.

Last month we found Obama ahead by a 49-43 margin in Colorado. But in the wake of his selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate and the Republican convention Romney has consolidated the GOP vote, going from an 85-10 advantage with his party base to an 89-8 one. He continues to trail in the state because of his struggles with independents there though. Obama has a 48-41 lead with them, a trend that's been consistent in our polling there all year.

We're seeing the same trends in Colorado that we're seeing everywhere in terms of where Obama and Romney's support is coming from. Obama is up 52-44 with women, 55-38 with non-white voters, and 53-40 with voters under 45. Romney's up 49-46 with men, 49-47 with white voters, and 51-46 with voters over 45. Obviously if Obama can continue to keep the race close to break even with whites and men his prospects in Colorado are going to be pretty darn good.

How much the convention has to do with Romney's improvement is unclear. 33% of voters say it made them more likely to vote for Romney, 32% say it made them less likely to, and 35% say it didn't make a difference to them either way. The biggest stars of the convention appear to have been Condoleezza Rice who has a 65/22 favorability rating, including 46/35 with Democrats, and Ann Romney who comes in at 50/31. Voters didn't think much of Clint Eastwood's speech- 37% rate it favorably to 38% with an unfavorable opinion- but they still have a highly positive opinion of him overall with 75% seeing him favorably to 8% with a negative view.

“Barack Obama continues to lead in Colorado but the state is getting closer,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Mitt Romney can open up a wider lead with whites and men he might have a chance at moving it into his column.”

PPP surveyed 1,001 likely Colorado voters from August 31^st to September 2nd . The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 46%
Unfavorable .................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable........................................................ 8%
Unfavorable .................................................... 13%
Not sure .......................................................... 79%

Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Gary Johnson ................................................. 5%
Undecided....................................................... 4%

Q6 Did the Republican convention make you more
or less likely to vote for Republicans this year,
or did it not make a difference?
More likely.............. .33%
Less likely .............. .32%
Didn't make a
difference ................35%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 50%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable........................................................ 41%
Unfavorable .................................................... 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 27%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable........................................................ 65%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable........................................................ 33%
Unfavorable .................................................... 13%
Not sure .......................................................... 53%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable........................................................ 47%
Unfavorable .................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable........................................................ 43%
Unfavorable .................................................... 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 32%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the speech Clint Eastwood gave at the
Republican convention?
Favorable........................................................ 37%
Unfavorable .................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 25%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clint Eastwood in general?
Favorable........................................................ 75%
Unfavorable .................................................... 8%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Q15 Who do you think gives better speeches:
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama................................................ 56%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q16 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan's
proposal for reforming Medicare?
Support ........................................................... 43%
Oppose ........................................................... 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q17 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should........................................................ 51%
He should not.................................................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 20%
Moderate......................................................... 28%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 25%
Very conservative ........................................... 15%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 37%
Republican...................................................... 37%
Independent/Other.......................................... 27%

Q21 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic.......................................................... 13%
White .............................................................. 76%
Other............................................................... 10%

Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 15%
30 to 45........................................................... 28%
46 to 65........................................................... 37%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%