Obama, Klobuchar up by solid margins in Minnesota

Raleigh, N.C. – In the last three months, President Obama’s lead in Minnesota has been cut in half, but he is still a clear favorite to defeat Mitt Romney in the state.  While Obama led by 15 points (54-39) in PPP’s early June survey, he now is ahead only seven (51-44) with likely voters in this fall’s election.

Obama’s lead with independents—about a third of voters—is down from 23 points to nine.  He leads by 14 points with women and lags by only one point with men—a smaller gender gap than in most states, but still an improvement for Romney from June, when he was down 18 with women and 11 with men. 

In the U.S. Senate contest, Republican Kurt Bills has gained a little ground after winning the nomination almost a month ago, but massively popular incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar still holds a huge advantage heading into November.  Klobuchar leads Bills, 55-36.  It was 55-29 in the previous survey.

Klobuchar’s standing has not slipped.  She still has the same 55% of the vote as in June and an identical 57% approval rating (with 31% disapproving, rather than 29%).  Bills has simply doubled his name identification from a paltry 20% before the primary to a still meager 41% now.  Because of that, he has made up some ground with his own party, from 69% to 75% of their support, but Klobuchar is also up from 14% to 16% of the GOP, while she locks up Democrats 93-2.  Her lead with independents is down from 35 to 20 points, however.

If he were to achieve parity with Klobuchar in voters’ recognition of his name, Bills could close the gap a bit, but Klobuchar still leads by 17 points with those who already have an opinion on both candidates, whether positive or negative.  She leads by the same margin if the small group of undecideds fall as they do on the presidential race.  But given Klobuchar’s superior cash reserves, the race is more likely to widen than close.

“Obama and Klobuchar are both safe bets in Minnesota,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 824 likely Minnesota voters from September 10^th to 11^th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 43%
Unfavorable .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy
Klobuchar’s job performance?
Approve ................. .57%
Disapprove............. .31%
Not sure ................. .12%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kurt Bills?
Favorable........................................................ 18%
Unfavorable .................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 59%

Q6 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Amy
Klobuchar and Republican Kurt Bills. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Amy Klobuchar ............................................... 55%
Kurt Bills.......................................................... 36%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 10%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 21%
Moderate......................................................... 28%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 25%
Very conservative ........................................... 16%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 49%
Man................................................................. 51%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 35%
Republican...................................................... 32%
Independent/Other.......................................... 33%

Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2
White .............................................................. 92%
Other............................................................... 8%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 32%
46 to 65........................................................... 36%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%