North Carolina remains extremely tight

PPP's post-Democratic convention North Carolina poll finds virtually no change from last week. Barack Obama leads 49-48, a result hardly different from the 48/48 tie we found last week.

That's not to say the convention wasn't a success for Democrats. 57% of voters think hosting it was a good thing for North Carolina to only 15% who believed it was a bad thing with 26% considering it neutral. Democrats consider it to have been a positive by an 84/4 margin and independents do 53/11. Republicans though believe it was a bad thing by a 34/23 margin. By a 47/39 margin North Carolinians say the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.

Why no bounce? North Carolina voters have simply proven to be pretty intractable. We have polled an Obama/Romney match up in the state 25 times since November of 2010. Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each other 24 out of those 25 times. Sometimes Obama's up by a little and sometimes Romney's up by a little but it's never outside the margin of error. The state of play in North Carolina this year is that each candidate has about 46% of the vote locked up, has had it locked up forever, and now they're just fighting over a very small persuadable swath of the electorate and seeing who has the superior GOTV operation. Barring a big shift in the national picture over the final eight weeks it's unlikely either candidate will win by more than 2-3 points, and a less than 1% difference in the final outcome like 2008 seems very plausible.

Obama has slightly positive approval numbers at 50/49. This is the first time PPP has found him above water in North Carolina since April. Romney has narrowly negative favorability numbers at 48/49. Those figures are basically unchanged from a week ago.

The marginal bump Obama has received is due to tying the race with independents at 48%. Last week Romney had led 51-40 with them. The convention didn't do anything to help Democrats win over Republican voters though. Romney's lead with the party base solidified, going from 86/10 to 93/5. Obama saw some party unification in the wake of the convention too though, going from a 79/19 lead with Democrats to 81/17.

Everything breaks down about as you would expect demographically. Obama is up 55-42 with women, 89-8 with African Americans, and 51-46 with voters under 65. Romney is up 56-42 with men, 60-37 with whites, and 56-41 with seniors.

There was some talk that Obama's convention speech was mediocre but by a 60/32 margin North Carolina voters still say that Obama gives better speeches than Romney. That's up from a 56/35 spread on our poll last week. Bill Clinton (59/34) and Michelle Obama (55/37) are very popular figures in the state and their speeches may have helped the President's image a little bit. Out of the newer faces who had primetime roles at the convention last week Elizabeth Warren (23/20) and Julian Castro (23/21) have nearly identical numbers, while Martin O'Malley (84% no opinion) didn't make much of an impression one way or the other.

North Carolina's been a swing state from the start and it looks like it will be a swing state to the end.

Full results here

Comments

[Obama 2012]

It's interesting that you haven't seen much of a bounce for Obama in Ohio or North Carolina but the national trackers are seeing significant movement to Obama.

That said; Obviously the Obama campaign would gladly take a 5 point win in Ohio and a 1 point win in North Carolina. And these numbers are actually slightly better than his 2008 #s in these two states.

If things are looking anything like 2008 (reference to one of your tweets) that's a very good thing for Obama.

That said; I have my fingers crossed for a true blowout. I want a wave election so we have a chance of winning back the House. It's going to be so difficult to do anything positive with the Republicans obstructing everything in the House.

[Peter Principle]

If North Carolina really is break even, the Rmoney is toast -- burnt toast.

[TJampel]

States where lots of campaign resources are already being targeted should see a much small bounce than those that have been ignored. Most minds are already firmly made up in these states, with all the Ads they've been forced to watch having done the job one way or the other (they've already sat through a convention's worth of speeches. As stated above, the situation in NC, for example, is pretty "intractable".

Also, it's expected that, in a close state, there will be more news coverage and a little more excitement than, say, in Hawaii or NY, where the result is a certainty, or in OK where Romney leads by 30 points or so. Perhaps that lead is now down to 25, as people there got to see a more humanized picture of Obama (as opposed to Fox-demonized one)

[Jay]

Little of the pre-election 2008 polling, even right before the election, gave an indication of the margin he went on to win many states by. Wisconsin and Nevada in particular come ot mind.

[George Templeton]

And if Democrats have 13-point advantage in turnout in North Carolina in 2012 I will eat ever hat I've ever owned.

[William Jefferson Jr.]

Massive D oversample. Wow.

[Stephan]

its interesting.but can you guys PLZ poll indiana-we havent had any data since had a ridiculous +16 romney some months ago.if obama is up +6 NC is a tossup then logic dictates indiana should also be close but i havent seen a single poll in months

thx guys

[Obama 2012]

TJampel - interesting theory - that makes some sense. If that's true then the DNC bounce is more about the national numbers than the swing states... still that could have positive effects for the Democrats down ballot.

[James]

First of all Dems outnumber Rep buy like 700k and out number Indies by like more than 1M! Pres is losing like 15% of Dem vote!turnout and GOTV will be huge! plus be even with Indies or not lose by more than 5%.The other thing is Pres is getting 37% of white vote,black vote will be very important.so people stop this over sample BS look at the registration numbers.whoever has the best TURNOUT and GOTV will win the New North Carolina[Winsconsin more conservertive]

[Matthew Reece]

Your poll does not include Gary Johnson, who is on the ballot in North Carolina. Because you did not ask the question that will be on the ballot, your result is not valid.