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September 10, 2012

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Obama 2012

It's interesting that you haven't seen much of a bounce for Obama in Ohio or North Carolina but the national trackers are seeing significant movement to Obama.

That said; Obviously the Obama campaign would gladly take a 5 point win in Ohio and a 1 point win in North Carolina. And these numbers are actually slightly better than his 2008 #s in these two states.

If things are looking anything like 2008 (reference to one of your tweets) that's a very good thing for Obama.

That said; I have my fingers crossed for a true blowout. I want a wave election so we have a chance of winning back the House. It's going to be so difficult to do anything positive with the Republicans obstructing everything in the House.

Peter Principle

If North Carolina really is break even, the Rmoney is toast -- burnt toast.

TJampel

States where lots of campaign resources are already being targeted should see a much small bounce than those that have been ignored. Most minds are already firmly made up in these states, with all the Ads they've been forced to watch having done the job one way or the other (they've already sat through a convention's worth of speeches. As stated above, the situation in NC, for example, is pretty "intractable".

Also, it's expected that, in a close state, there will be more news coverage and a little more excitement than, say, in Hawaii or NY, where the result is a certainty, or in OK where Romney leads by 30 points or so. Perhaps that lead is now down to 25, as people there got to see a more humanized picture of Obama (as opposed to Fox-demonized one)

Jay

Little of the pre-election 2008 polling, even right before the election, gave an indication of the margin he went on to win many states by. Wisconsin and Nevada in particular come ot mind.

George Templeton

And if Democrats have 13-point advantage in turnout in North Carolina in 2012 I will eat ever hat I've ever owned.

William Jefferson Jr.

Massive D oversample. Wow.

Stephan

its interesting.but can you guys PLZ poll indiana-we havent had any data since had a ridiculous +16 romney some months ago.if obama is up +6 NC is a tossup then logic dictates indiana should also be close but i havent seen a single poll in months

thx guys

Obama 2012

TJampel - interesting theory - that makes some sense. If that's true then the DNC bounce is more about the national numbers than the swing states... still that could have positive effects for the Democrats down ballot.

James

First of all Dems outnumber Rep buy like 700k and out number Indies by like more than 1M! Pres is losing like 15% of Dem vote!turnout and GOTV will be huge! plus be even with Indies or not lose by more than 5%.The other thing is Pres is getting 37% of white vote,black vote will be very important.so people stop this over sample BS look at the registration numbers.whoever has the best TURNOUT and GOTV will win the New North Carolina[Winsconsin more conservertive]

Matthew Reece

Your poll does not include Gary Johnson, who is on the ballot in North Carolina. Because you did not ask the question that will be on the ballot, your result is not valid.

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