No bounce for Romney in Florida

PPP's newest Florida poll, conducted completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last poll of the state five weeks ago.

The Republican convention being held in Tampa appears to have been a wash. 33% of voters say it made them more likely to vote for Republicans, 33% said it made them less likely to vote for Republicans, and 34% said it didn't make a difference to them either way.

Romney did see a slight bump in his favorability numbers. 49% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. That +2 spread is up a net 5 points from late July when his breakdown was 46/49.

The rest of the speakers at the convention seem to have been more of a hit with voters. Condoleezza Rice's numbers in particular stand out. 66% of voters see her favorably to 22% with a negative opinion. That's up a net 13 points from our last poll when she was already pretty darn popular at 59/28. Even with Democrats Rice comes in at 47/36. Another star from the convention is Ann Romney. 56% of voters give her good marks to 22% with an unfavorable opinion and she comes close to breaking even with Democrats at 32/39.

Clint Eastwood's speech may have drawn more attention than anything else that happened at the convention and it didn't go over particularly well with voters. 36% say they have a favorable opinion of his remarks to 41% with a negative opinion. While Eastwood's speech didn't do much to help Romney it doesn't seem to have hurt his own reputation either. 72% of Floridians have a favorable opinion of him to 11% with a negative one and even with Democrats the spread is 58/20. Those are certainly numbers any politician would die for.

The biggest winner of the convention on the Republican side may have been Marco Rubio. He now has a 51% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him. Those are the best numbers PPP has found for him since he took office. He is pretty universally beloved by GOP voters at 85/11 and even with Democrats he has a 26% approval rating, more crossover support than we usually find for folks these days.

Everyone else who spoke in the 10 PM hour at the convention has better favorability numbers than Mitt Romney. Besides those already mentioned Susana Martinez has a +19 spread at 35/16, Chris Christie has a +9 spread at 41/32, and Paul Ryan has a +7 spread at 47/40.

Obama continues to have his modest lead in Florida because he's up 51-39 with independents, 63-33 with non-white voters, and 54-40 with voters under 45. Romney's up 54-42 with whites and 53-44 with folks over 45 but he would need bigger margins with those groups to lead in the state overall.

Other notes from Florida:

-One reason Romney may not get much, if any, of a convention bounce is simply that people don't think he's a very good speaker. 58% in Florida say Obama is a better public speaker to 32% for Romney.

-49% of Florida voters think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns to 41% who think he should not.

-Florida voters oppose the Ryan Plan 44/37 but given the lack of change in the race since Ryan's selection as Romney's running mate and the strong advantage the Republican ticket has with seniors that may not be having too much of an impact.

Full results here

Comments

[Reality Checked]

Of course when one reads into the demographics it is clear you oversampled Democrats, Hispanics, and African-Americans. Accordingly, the results you present here are skewed and highly questionable.

[Maxwell]

Small typo in your post: "54-40 with voters over 45" (Obama) should read "under 45", I suspect.

[Peter Principle]

"Obama continues to have his modest lead in Florida because he's up . . . 54-40 with voters over 45. Romney's up . . . 53-44 with folks over 45 "

I'm guessing that's a typo. Either that, or an awful lot of older folks in Florida are suffering from multiple personality disorder.

[Khyber Jones]

The internals show Obama leading Romney 80-19 among African Americans. It is highly unlikely that Romney receives even 5% of the AA vote in November. Obama's real lead in the state may be understated.

[Pinky B]

Barack Obama will kick Romney's ass back to the planet Kolob. America isn't stupid enough to elect Romney!

[QuidProRomo]

Why have you yet again misled the voting public by omitting Gary Johnson and Jill Stein from your polling questions? This seems like an huge oversight for a company that touts itself as having "Highly Accurate Polling."

[Eilein]

To Reality Checked who said, "Of course when one reads into the demographics it is clear you oversampled Democrats" -
This poll is:
Dem- 41%
Rep- 37%
Other- 21%
Florida active registered voters (officially, July 2012):
Dem- 41%
Rep- 36%
Other- 24%
Source:
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp
Apparently Republicans were Oversampled by 1% here.

Plus in this poll
moderately liberal to very liberal - 25%
moderately to very conservative - 38%
moderate - 36%
Seems like the conservatives were polled sufficiently, no?

[Dee]

Mitt is a shallow man. He has Ann doing his dirty work for him. She should be ashamed of herself using her MS and breast cancer to garner the woman's vote. She who has all the money in the world and no doubt great health insurance has no concern for the poor working women who don't go to a doctor for a check up because they wouldn't be able to afford a cure.

Paul Ryan what the HE++ is forced rape? Are these the fools you want taking this country back to the 50's?

OBAMA 2012
Hillary 2016

[David Jack Smith]

The female population of the USA is what? 50.5%? Given that it was 50.9% from the 2000 census, and the ratio is historically trending down.

Yet your poll over-samples at 54% female, 46% male.

This is absurd.

[Smooth Jazz]

Thanks for your post. Other pollsters have been getting different results out of Florida, so here is my question: What is the partisan breakdown in your poll - ie Dem versus Rep versus Ind. I think you'll agree the number of Dems versus Reps polled can make a big difference in the results. With national tracking polls showing Obama at 43% - 44% job approval, I would be curios to see the partisan breakdown from your poll.

[Bill Mitchell]

Well you oversampled Democrats so what do you expect. Do you honestly believe that 4% more Democrats than Republicans will vote in Florida.

Lemme guess. I bet this poll isnt even likely voters.

All all the bs together and you get about a 5 point Romney bounce. Funny the only time PPP has ever oversampled Republicans was when they were trying to create fake momentum for Akin In MO by using a +9 Republican sample.

PPP is not a serious polling firm. They are agenda protagonists for the DNC.

[Smooth Jazz]

"The internals show Obama leading Romney 80-19 among African Americans. It is highly unlikely that Romney receives even 5% of the AA vote in November. Obama's real lead in the state may be understated."

Remember there are 2 sides to the same coin, so we need to know how many African Americans were included in the sample. Sure, 19% - 20% overstates Romney's share of the AA vote, but if AA's typically represent 10% of the vote, and a poll assumes 20% of the vote is AA, that is not representative either. The key to the election will be the white versus non-white vote. Any poll that doesn't capture a representative mix of these demographics should be viewed with caution.

[Jim Temple]

There are many PPP polls I just don't trust. In Missouri, they oversampled Republicans to keep Akin close to McCaskill, and therefore reluctant to pull out of the race. NOw, in Florida, they oversample Democrats to show no convention bounce for Romney.

If PPP wants to believe this poll, I guess that's their choice, the ultimate poll will happen in November, and it will show the validity of polls like this.

[John Pollster]

To Reality Check the Reality Checker the percentages of the various groups of REGISTERED voters is worthless!

Polling 101..thanks for playing

[D]

QuidProRomo | September 03, 2012 at 12:47 AM
"Apparently Republicans were Oversampled by 1% here. "

Actually depends upon whose numbers are to be believed. Looks like the numbers you quoted on Republicans is..... a bit low.
According to NYTimes numbers, Republicans have the advantage in FL at +4.2% over Dems.

Strain your eyes or increase the size of the page:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/07/24/us/politics/538-statenat4/538-statenat4-blog480.png

So, yes, Republicans were undersampled, not oversampled as you state.

[Obama 2012]

Jack Smith - Women have a higher likelihood of voting than men do.

Here's a quote I found online about it: "In 2004, 60.1% of women and 56.3% of men voted. That's 67.3 million women and 58.5 million men - a difference of 8.8 million."

[Rick Averill]

-49% of Florida voters think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns to 41% who think he should not.
And what percentage of Florida voters think Obama should drop his spurius Executive Priviledge claim and release the Fast & Furious documents he is illegally witholding?
Oh! You didn't bother to ask THAT question? I wonder why.

[Marvin Ashe]

I looked up the founder of this particular polling company and surprisingly enough he is a Democrat and backs Democrats so this poll is PURELY propaganda and is not a true showing of how NC thinks.
Be sure to take a look at my last name....Ashe...as in Governor Ashe of NC....yes I am of that family.

[Jack Moss]

Of course with a D+13 sample, what would you expect. No polls show Democrat voter enthusiasm greater than in 2008. Corrrectly weighted polls show the bounce (Gallup, etc).

[Fred CPA]

To: Eilieen, you can use registered voters if you like. you i assume know that has no bearing on reality. likely voters does. 2010 DRI, 36/36/29. and given that, dems are oversampled by 5%. so the original point is indeed valid. dems oversampled. and believing this poll and especially the laughable analaysis will only heighten the cognitive dissonance thats comig. good luck.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#FLG00p1

[Jack Moss]

One other important issue. This poll takes place after Isaac and into the Memorial Day weekend. That means forget samples in LA, MS, AL, where many are recovering from the storm. Long weekend means that most people are on the road and not at home. Traditional weekend samples always favor democrats. Let's wait until about,er the week after next, after the DNC, and after the coming friday jobs report. Then you start to get the real numbers. All this simply static.

[BlogMagog]

Record number of Americans in poverty and on food stamps.
4 MORE YEARS

Gas prices and oil prices skyrocketing as Obama wanted.
4 MORE YEARS

Unemployment above 8% for 41 weeks. A new record.
4 MORE YEARS

What is wrong with you people. We are broke and on the verge of another disaster. They are hiding this from you until after the election. I can't believe you are dumb enough to let this man "finish off" the country. We are going the way of liberal California BROKE, BANKRUPT. All you people getting government handouts, will get nothing when we run out of money. NOTHING !!! YOU ARE SLAVES BUT YOU ARE IN DENIAL.

[Nlc]

Bullhockey!

[rev.dan hartley]

clint eastwood is the man,. mr.president romney. dan63070 youtube -our only hope-

[Gene Schwimmer]

Eilein,

Voters do not actually show up to vote in the percentages of their registration. Regardless of registration, Republicans usually vote in higher numbers than Democrats.

That said, Obama's lead of only a single point, is well within the margin of error, so at the end of the day, the candidates are tied.

[Bill Mitchell]

Lol, PPP has been exposed for the utter and complete frauds they are.

In their new NC poll where they have Obama and Romney tied, they used a +13 Democrat sample to get to that number. Are they honestly claiming that 13% more Democrats are going to vote in NC than Republicans?

You've been exposed PPP.

[TJP77]

PPP heavily oversamples Democrat voters. They had Scott Walker at +3 for the Wisconsin Recall, and he ended up winning by 6.8.

The latest Rasmussen poll has Romney at +1 in Florida (admittedly from mid-August), but they're generally the most accurate poll.

In most swing states, Obama's lead is either nonexistent or greatly exaggerated.

[donna]

Obama the better speaker - That seems to be the only real attribute he holds, our dear Teleprompter in Chief. Anyone can do that. It takes a real leader and one who really WANTS the USA to succeed. Obama only want to give handouts to everyone and have us taxed to the hilt!

[John]

I could understand if she is tired and hung up the dream. I don't know if the margin really matters much though. The question is not what Obama wins by this year - the question for any candidate for 2016 is how their party does in 2014 and where Obama stands in 2015.
http://www.surveytool.com/survey-polls/