Murphy leads by 6 in CT-Senate race

PPP's newest poll of the Connecticut Senate race finds Democrat Chris Murphy expanding his lead to 6 points over Republican foe Linda McMahon, 48-42. Last month he led 48-44.

There's no doubt Murphy's image has taken a hit over the course of this campaign. Only 36% of voters say they have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. That's down a net 15 points from July when he was at a 38/31 favorability spread. But voters aren't warming up to McMahon either- she has a 42% favorability rating with 49% of voters seeing her unfavorably, numbers basically identical to 42/48 a couple months ago. McMahon's done a good job of hitting Murphy but she hasn't done anything to prop herself up and in a race between an unpopular Democratic candidate and an unpopular Republican candidate in a state like Connecticut the Democrat is going to win.

The key question we asked on this poll was probably whether people wanted Democrats or Republicans in control of the Senate, and by a 50/38 margin folks say they want the Democrats in charge. That reality should help Murphy along as well.

McMahon actually leads the race with independents, 51-38. Her problem is that 20% of Republicans are supporting Murphy over her, similar to what we found her losing to Richard Blumenthal in 2010. You simply can't win as a Republican in Connecticut without holding your party base in line to a greater extent than that, but many GOP voters continue to find her unacceptable.

There's a huge gender gap on the race with Murphy leading 54-35 with women, while McMahon has a 49-41 advantage with men. If there was any thought that McMahon might be able to over perform with women that seems not to be the case. Also key for Murphy is that he's running even with white voters- if he can continue to do that his wide advantage with minorities will pull him along.

Murphy's still not up by as much as you would expect a Democrat in Connecticut to be but he does look again like the clear favorite.

2 other notes from Connecticut:

-One thing that would help McMahon is poor turnout from Democrats. But 59% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote, compared to 56% of Republicans. There doesn't appear to be a pro-GOP enthusiasm gap.

-The wrestling stuff certainly doesn't help McMahon. 17% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of WWE to 51% with a negative opinion.

Full results here

Comments

[Pealerl]

I find the numbers very interesting, too bad they are skewed way out of sync! This poll used a sample of 43% democrat, 26% republican and 32% other. The percentages that should have been used are 37% democrat, 21% republican and 42% other. I wonder what the real results should have read since the report is that the other is breaking by some 58% for the republican? I suspect a fairly close election.

[Molly]

Thank goodness the people in CT have woken up!I was so confused the last few months. It seemed as if the people of CT were falling for this woman's scam & that's all it was. I am a devout Republican and had the opportunity to speak with her about some issues that are close to my heart. I came away so discouraged because Linda McMahon was completely out of her depth as far as these issues went. Even my 6th grader was more knowledgeable than she! So sad, but I've also spoken with Chris Murphy and he is encyclopedic. He's not a movie star or sharp dresser, but he knows these issues inside and out. There's just no comparison. I'd love to vote for a Republican, but she's so out of the loop it's a little scary.

[Thomas]

Pealerl: The 2008 electorate was 43% democrat 26% republican and 31% independent...so this polling sample was not biased.

[I love you, imaginationland.]

No that isn't right either. The One True Sample is 2% Democrats, 67% GOP and 31% other. Other is breaking for the GOP at a rate of Ham Sandwich to one, which guarantees not only a Republican landslide but also deliciousness!

[Jay]

My newly released JJJ poll has McMahon with an 18 point lead over Murphy. Like the recent UCONN/Hartford Courant poll and this PPP Poll my poll is truly unbiased, objective and fair too.

[paulc]

Only the Quinnipiac poll has McMahon ahead. The other three major polls show Murphy ahead by a margin of 2-6%. You GOP drones can quote imaginary statistics all you like, but the reality in THIS state is that even a respected Republican always has an uphill battle in any election, and McMahon is anything but. Smells like a dem victory to me...