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September 04, 2012

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Philip

Duke or UNC?
LeBron James approval rating in Ohio

Tyler

Please ask them - Do you support same-sex marriage? Do you support any legal recognition of same-sex, committed relationships? Thanks!

jpmassar

Make sure you use the correct language for the Minnesota same-sex marriage initiative. Apparently Ballotpedia has not yet updated their language for the title to conform to the court decision.

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Minnesota_Same-Sex_Marriage_Amendment_(2012)

According to the Star Tribune the language will be

'Additionally, the amendment against gay marriage will be titled "Recognition of Marriage Solely Between One Man and One Woman." The ballot question, which was not challenged in the cases, will ask voters if the constitution should be amended so that "only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota."'

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/167637595.html?refer=y

It's CRITICALLY important to include the title, not just the text of the question, when presenting the issue, because that is what the voters are going to see first.

Chuck Johnson

Don't forget to include the third-party candidates in the Montana polls, because they could affect the outcomes of close races. In Senate race, the Libertarian candidate is Dan Cox. In House race, the Libertarian is David Kaiser. In governor's race, the Libertarian candidate is Ron Vandevender.
You might do job performance questions on President Barack Obama, Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester, Rep. Denny Rehberg and Gov. Brian Schweitzer.
A big ballot issue is the referendum on the 2011 law that made it harder for people to obtain medical marijuana. Because of the law, and federal raids of medical pot growers, the number of medical marijuana cardholders has dropped to less than 9,000, down from a peak of more than 30,000.

Toby

I like to see how Montana voters would vote in a Presidential race between Schweitzer and a generic Republican, as well as in a Romney reelect scenario.

Jose Banegas

In Minnesota:

You hit the nail on the coffin. What is interesting here is the biggest races aren't the Presidential (Obama should win by 6-12% depending on Dem turnout) while Sen. Amy Klobuchar is facing off against a Republican whose going back to teaching this fall. Has not taken a leave of absence and most likely will lose to Senator Klobuchar by at least 35-40% (65-25, 70-30)

The real campaigns here are surrounding the two Constitutional Amendments. Both on Defining Marriage and setting up Voter Id.

The real question is when it comes to candidate. Can DFL candidate Rick Nolan defeat 2010 Tea Party surprise Chip Cravaack who defeated 30 year incumbent Jim Oberstar in the 2010 Republican House takeover. The Congressional 8th District located in the Upper NorthEast includes Duluth. So to me the more important races are: Constitutional races on Marriage/Voter ID and the Rick Nolan v Chip Craavack race.

Thanks!

Paul

Do voters in Ohio support early voting the weekend before the election?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/31/ohio-obama-early-voting-lawsuit_n_1821882.html

SD

Really excited to see Montana being polled, thanks for including it this week!!

Since the polls will be conducted after both conventions, it could be interesting to see favorability ratings of both Ann Romney and Michelle Obama, given that both will have given high-profile convention speeches at that point.

It would be nice to see an update on gay marriage legal/illegal numbers in Ohio, Minnesota, and Montana, since Minnesota will have that on the ballot this year and Ohio could have a ballot initiative to legalize SSM in 2013 (and I'm just curious if numbers have moved at all in Montana over the last few months).

For Minnesota, a generic legislative ballot would be nice since the Republican Party there has had a rough time since taking over in 2010.

Thanks for taking suggestions!!

MO

Gary Johnson should be polled for the presidential race in Montana. Johnson has a lot of support and appeal in the Mountain West, so he can make a pretty strong showing in a state like Montana along with a few others. It would be interesting to gauge his level of support after the RNC convention and Ron Paul's supporters' migration to him.

Erik

Please do the anti-gay marriage amendment in Minnesota! :) Thank you!
If you want to be really nice, ask an additional question that will help prep/inoculate people for the anti-gay adds that are going to come out right before the election. Like-- In previous states anti-gay activists have produced adds in the lead up to the vote to scare people in to voting for the amendment by using inflated language and non-factual information. Do you think television and radio adds such as this will work on you? Do you believe influencing elections by spreading non-factual information is healthy for our American democracy?
Obviously, you'll have to look into the language you'd want to use. These amendments have turned out counter to what their polling has said because in the lead up to the vote the anti-gay side release a flurry of purely emotional attacks before they can be refuted as factually false. To a certain extent, polling about these amendments haven't given an accurate picture of the election results because of this fact, so if you are going to poll about the marriage amendment you may want to test the waters about peoples' internal responses to these emotional based attacks.
Thanks!
E.

JesseMT

For Montana - How about a hypothetical Schweitzer/Baucus Democratic primary in 2014?

Alexander

Montana
--Ask about Brian Schweitzer running for president in 2016
--Max Baucus vs. Generic Republican

Minnesota
--Mark Dayton vs. Generic Republican
--Al Franken vs. Generic Republican

Ohio
--John Kasich vs. Generic Democrat

Jacob

Supreme Court Race in OH: Yvette McGee Brown vs. Sharon Kennedy

Also The Redistricting Amendment in OH.

In NC: NC Supreme Court Race between Ervin and Newby.

Joshua Bradshaw

Please ask about the referendum on the medical marijuana. A big issue very interesting as well as potential for a schweitzer presidential run. And could you ask about approval and disapproval of a sales tax in Montana, as Rick Hill has in the past supported it and Bullock opposes it.

Mike

Maybe add Green Party presidential poll for Minnesota. The green party polled over 6% there once and Jill Stein is running political ads during the democratic convention so it would be interesting if she would effect the Obama bounce.

Mark B.

In MN, I think it would be extremely interesting to ask a generic legislative ballot. Also, the gay marriage referendum there bears looking at. As well, including the Independence party candidates in the poll would provide a much-needed check-in on whether any sort of 3rd-party wild-card effect is in store.

In MT, IR-124, a medical marijuana-related referendum, is on the ballot and would be interesting to poll. And there is also I-166, an initiative on 'corporate personhood!'

In OH, another look at the redistricting referendum would certainly be appropriate. In NC, I can't think of any suggestions but I know you all will know just what to poll there.

Thanks as always for asking for suggestions!

Jim M

Minnesota, the state fair closed yesterday - ask 'Pronto Pups or Corn Dogs'?

ChuckInSeattle

I'm thinking of something fun for Minnesota. Growing up, we mocked and told jokes about people from Wisconsin, Iowa and North Dakota. Oddly, never South Dakota.
So maybe fav/unfav for each of our neighbor states. Or which state you like the most/least.

More seriously, it might be interesting to ask a regilion based demograpic question up front, Catholic, Lutheran, etc. to see how various religious groups are voting for Prez, and the marriage amendment.

Nancy

Redistricting has made districts more competitive for challengers to incumbents, so the MN2 Kline-Obermueller and the MN6 Bachmann-Graves races could generate interesting poll results, in addition to the MN8 Cravaack-Nolan contest and the MN3 Paulsen-Barnes race.

Steven

On MN, when you poll on the marriage amendment, PLEASE include an option for those respondents who do not intend to cast a vote on the question. MN is unique in that ballots which have no vote cast on a constitutional amendment count as "no" votes. This unique MN rule has resulted in the defeat of a number of proposed constitutional amendments, even when those amendments received more "yes" votes than actual "no" votes. Since this can determine the outcome, if you want an accurate result, your question has to allow for the no-vote option.

Also, I second the comment by JPMassar above: use the precise language of the ballot amendment. If you want to poll a second question using your standard language on gay marriage, that's fine. But do that in addition to polling the actual ballot language.

Justin

Please poll the Minnesota Marriage Amendment using the ballot wording, thank you.

Patrick

Include Gary Johnson in the presidential poll for all of the states. The results will be surprising and his effect on the results will give an indication of which candidate is likely to lose the most votes.

Also, include Barbara Howe in the NC Governor's poll. She is going to steal votes from McCrory and how many could decide the outcome of the race.

Nicholas

Perhaps to qualitative, but can you question NC tone of the DNC convention. I'd like to see how tone themes translate to the actual state. It would be interesting to see the if the stratified NC sample in Charlotte area was more influenced, better or worse than by rest of state (and country) by democrati messaging. Gettin down to on the ground interpersonal effects and larger mediated messaging

jpmassar

I second Steven's comment above. For MN amendment questions, all three options -- YES, NO, and DO NOT INTEND TO VOTE ON THIS, should be given.

Doing that would, if nothing else, be different than any other polling that's been done on the amendments in the state, and should be interesting if and of itself.

Brigham

This year's two big initiatives in Montana:

IR-124: Referendum on legislature overturning will of the voters on medical marijuana

I-166: Corporations aren't people

Of course you'll also want to again test Schweitzer v Baucus, this will be the third time.

I think an approval question on the last legislative session would provide lots of light on why campaigns are making the moves they are.

If you want to go for broke, add in the Tier II races.

Dan

Could you make sure to include Gary Johnson in the presidential poll no no matter what the other questions are?

Lucas

Please include Gary Johnson in Montana, as he has polled well in all the Mountain West states. Also, I would include Johnson in all the states. It is an unfair reflection to only include the two major parties when there are more than two choices. At least include a "somebody else" option. In Minnesota Ron Paul was very popular, I can't see why Johnson's Libertarianism wouldn't also be, the Republican nominee for Senate, Kurt Bills, is a libertarian. Please consider including him.

Mike

For Ohio:

--Issue 2: How do they plan to vote on a constitutional amendment to place redistricting in the hands of a citizens commission? (A "yes" vote would enact it.)
--Early Voting: Do they support no early voting the weekend before the election, only military members and their families being able to vote the weekend before the election (the Republican proposal), or all voters being able to vote the weekend before the election (the Democrat proposal)?
--2012: Generic legislative ballot D vs. R, for Congress and for the state legislature
--2014: Kasich vs. Generic D, Kasich vs. Strickland
--Favorables: former Gov. Strickland (and it would be interesting to see if his convention speech moved the needle on his numbers at all)
--Approvals: SoS Jon Husted, Treasurer Josh Mandel, Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Brown, Sen. Portman
--Which presidential ticket do voters trust more on: the economy; Medicare; Social Security; higher education; health care?
--And in addition to polling the Senate race, possibly include a question from your earlier polling that asks voters which party they would rather see in control of the Senate.
--Fun stuff: favorite MLB team, Reds or Indians; LeBron James approval ratings; how well will Ohio State football do this season

Harrison

Montana: I agree with the hypothetical Bacaus/Schweitzer Priamry for 2014 GOV.

Minnesota: How about a hypothetical Bachmann/Franken or Pawlenty/Franken Senate Race, also if possible look at The Governors Race in 2014 Dayton/Bachmann or Dayton/Cravaack

Ohio: Governor's Race 2014 Kasich/ Kucinich, Kasich/Cordray Kasich/Strickland would all work.

Josh Ridings

Please include Gary Johnson in the polls

Rose

Please ask about IR-124, the initiative referendum on the marijuana law passed by the last legislature (Senate Bill 423) Voting 'Against' would overturn SB423 and revert temporarily to the original marijuana law passed in 2004.
SB423 has made it nearly impossible to be a legal marijuana provider. New patients are having a very difficult time finding providers. Patients, growers or dispensaries who rent must have their landlord sign an affidavit stating they understand their property can be siezed by the feds. Patients have absolutely no non-felonious way of obtaining seeds or clones.

jmartin4s

Not sure why Minnesota won, there is nothing really competitive there. Even though New Hampshire lost is it possible you could do just a weekend poll of the democratic primary between cilley/hassan. It's on 9/11/12.

dft

In Ohio: would be interested to see how Bengals, Browns, Other NFL support would compare to Indians, Reds, Other MLB support. Might be a good way to gauge on what support is coming from where in the state. Also, intrinsically interesting to see whether geography trumps winning percentage.

wwmiv

Montana is an at-large state. Please poll the house race there.

Tom

I'd like to see gay marriage polling in Montana.

Mike

Montana:
I wish to see all the statewide offices polled. Who knows when will the next poll.

North Carolina:
I wish to see polled NC-AG.

Minnesota:
I wish to see MN-01 and MN-07.

Mike

Ohio:

Strickland vs Porter (Sen 2016)
Strickland vs Kasich (Gov 2014)

Chris

In Montana, the public perception of IR-124 and the medical marijuana law it could repeal.

Leah

Please ask about Questions 1 and 2 on the Minnesota ballot.

Amanda

Please include Gary Johnson in the Presidential questions.

Df90266

Montana: IR-124, referendum to block bad "substitute" medical marijuana law. Yes vote keeps bad law, No vote tosses it out. Issue of great controversy in the state for >3 years, coming to a head. Get ballot language from the state.

Nathan Williams

NC:

-Question on impact of DNC being held in Charlotte.

-Intention of straight-ticket voting (NC still has that box, yes?). Always wondered how many people avail themselves of it.

Wes Volkenant

I'd like to see the Bachmann-Graves race in MN CD-6 polled, as Jim Graves is running a strong race vs. Congresswoman Bachmann, whose performance in her Presidential race may have harmed her among her less-than-core constituents. I'm told there is internal polling showing Graves is less than 5% behind Bachmann in this traditionally "red" district. Besides MN CD-8, this is the race I'm most interested in at trhe CD level this year.

Big Swede

Please ask in MT which Senator, the incumbent Jon Tester or the challenger Denny Rehberg, who be more likely to support any efforts to reinstate gun control legislation such as the Brady Bill.

Michael Everts

Q:
"Do you believe you are better off now under the Obama administration, or four years ago when Bush was president?" I think it's better than just asking "are you better off than four years ago," because people interpret that question as "Are you doing as good as you want to do?"

Alan Johnson

It would bge good to have a look at the Montana Secretary of State race. This office runs elections. The incumbent, Democrat Linda McCollough defeated Republican incumbent Brad Johnson in 2008, and Johnson is facing her this year in a rematch. The issue of voter ID has come up in this race, making it interesting. Also, both candidates have run in several state-wide elections and are well-known.

Jack

If there is any way to pose such a question to Minnesota voters, I would like to hear what they think of Michelle Bachmann's honesty. I would actually prefer to ask them if they think she's clinically sane but let's stick with honesty. Do her extreme claims about Democrats strike you as: a) standard political exaggerations, b) sincere beliefs, c) grotesque lies.

Mtfreedom9

Agree that the Schweitzer Baucus 2014 match-up is the hot topic in Montana right now-U.S. Senate race.

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