-PPP's newest poll on the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in Minnesota finds it virtually tied, with 48% of voters supporting the ban to 47% who oppose it. In January we found 48/44 support for the ban, while in June we found 49/43 opposition. It looks like a toss up.
Women (52/41), Democrats (78/16), and voters under 45 (50/45) all oppose the ban. Men (55/41), Republicans (80/17), independents (51/42), and seniors (53/40) all support it in greater numbers though.
While Minnesotans are split down the middle on gay marriage they're strongly supportive of providing gay couples with some form of legal rights. 72% support either marriage or civil unions to only 25% opposed to any sort of legal recognition. Even Republicans by a 51/47 margin at least support civil unions.
-Minnesota's voter ID amendment looks to be headed for more comfortable passage, although the numbers have tightened up a little bit since our June poll. It leads by 17 points, 56-39, compared to a 24 point lead at 58-34 the last time we polled it. That movement is because Democrats have hardened in their opposition to it, going from being against it just 54/36 to now 72/20. But it retains overwhelming support from Republicans (88/9) and independents (62/33).
Democrats lead the generic state legislative ballot by a 47/44 margin. That's a good deal tighter than June when they had a 48/36 advantage and it's hard to say what that will translate to in terms of the number of seats they pick up this fall.
-Al Franken would be in good shape if he had to run for reelection this year as well. He has a 49/42 approval rating and would lead a generic Republican opponent 48-42. We also tested three of the state's well known Republicans in head to head match ups with Franken. None of them are popular- Norm Coleman has a 35/39 favorability rating, Tim Pawlenty's is 40/48, and Michele Bachmann's is the worst of the bunch at 29/59. Franken would lead Coleman and Pawlenty by identical 50-43 margins in hypothetical head to head match ups, and he'd have a 52-40 advantage over Bachmann.
-And finally we polled Twins fans on whether they think Ron Gardenhire should be fired and despite another bad season only 9% think he should be let go to 57% who would oppose his being fired and 34% who say they don't have an opinion one way or the other.
Full results here