-PPP's first poll of the Michigan Senate race since switching to likely voters continues to find Debbie Stabenow with a solid lead over Pete Hoekstra, 50-41. Stabenow has her party more unified around her, taking 88% of Democrats to Hoekstra's 81% of Republicans. She's also up 53-36 with independents. Stabenow is running almost even among white voters, trailing Hoekstra just 46-45, and when you add in her overwhelming support among non-whites you get her overall solid lead.
Michigan voters aren't in love with Stabenow. They're evenly divided on her job performance with 43% approving and 43% disapproving. But they continue to have a dim view of Hoekstra with 32% rating him favorably to 39% with an unfavorable opinion. That's about where his numbers have been ever since his controversial Super Bowl ad- he's had a hard time bouncing back from that.
-We polled three of this fall's ballot initiatives and found little change from our Michigan July poll on any of them. The constitutional amendment to guarantee collective bargaining rights is ahead by a 44/37 margin. The one to mandate that 25% of Michigan's electricity comes from renewable energy sources by 2025 is up 49/31. And in what would be a big victory for Rick Snyder, voters are saying by a 40/31 margin that they will keep the emergency managers law. There are a lot of undecideds on all these so the numbers could shift but for now they're favored for passage.
-Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot 45-41, including 38-28 with independents. That's a more narrow lead than they've had on our other polls this year and given the Republican drawn districting lines they may need to win by more than that to get control of the State House this fall.
-If Carl Levin decides to run for reelection in 2014 he will start out in a pretty good position. He has a 46/35 approval rating and leads a generic Republican opponent by 11 points, 51-40.
Full results here