Polls

McCrory maintains lead over Dalton

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C.–
PPP’s newest poll on the North Carolina
Governor’s race finds a steady contest with Pat McCrory leading Walter Dalton
by 6 points, 45-39. Libertarian Barbara Howe polls at 5%. 5 PPP polls conducted
since Dalton won the Democratic nomination have all found the same thing-
McCrory leading by either 6 or 7 points.

McCrory continues to be a popular candidate with 46% of voters holding a
favorable opinion of him to 33% with a negative one. He has 79% name
recognition compared to only 55% for Dalton. Dalton’s favorability numbers have
improved a net 12 points in the last month from -7 at 24/31 to +5 at 30/25.

McCrory leads thanks to strong support from independent voters and his
crossover appeal to Democrats. With independents he holds a 20 point lead,
48-28. He’s also taking 19% of the Democratic vote, compared to only 10% of
Republicans going for Dalton.

The good news for Dalton is that the undecideds skew heavily in his favor.
60% are Democrats, compared to only 18% who are Republicans. 40% are African
Americans and 65% are women. These are folks who are voting for Barack Obama
and voting Democratic for other offices but simply don’t know Dalton that well
yet. If those folks end up coming home in the end this is more like a 3-4 point
race.

“Pat McCrory continues to be the clear favorite for Governor,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But this race could tighten up if
undecided Democrats move into the Walter Dalton column as they become more
familiar with him.”

Democrat Linda Coleman leads Republican Dan Forest just 41-39 in the race
for Lieutenant Governor. Incumbent Democratic Auditor Beth Wood has only a 2
point lead over Republican challenger Debra Goldman at 40-38. Incumbent
Democratic Treasurer Janet Cowell has a 42-38 advantage over GOP challenger
Steve Royal. Republican incumbent Steve Troxler leads Democratic challenger
Walter Smith 45-35 for Agriculture Commissioner.

PPP surveyed 1,012
likely North Carolina voters from August 31st to September 2nd . The
margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or
authorized by any campaign or political organization.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Walter Dalton, Republican Pat McCrory, and
Libertarian Barbara Howe. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 39%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 45%
Barbara Howe…………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q4 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Democrat Linda Coleman and Republican Dan
Forest. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Linda Coleman………………………………………… 41%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q5 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Janet Cowell and Republican Steve
Royal. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Janet Cowell …………………………………………… 42%
Steve Royal ……………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 The candidates for Agriculture Commissioner
are Democrat Walter Smith and Republican
Steve Troxler. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Walter Smith …………………………………………… 35%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q7 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Beth Wood and Republican Debra Goldman. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Beth Wood……………………………………………… 40%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .30%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .33%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .39%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .24%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .16%
Disapprove…………. .56%
Not sure …………….. .28%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q13 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q14 Do you think North Carolina’s ban on smoking
in bars and restaurants has been a good thing
or a bad thing for the state?
Good……………………………………………………… 71%
Bad ……………………………………………………….. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q20 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 22%

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