In 2008 North Carolina was the second closest state in the Presidential race. It looks more and more like it could be the closest this year. PPP's newest poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney dead even at 48%. In 3 September PPP polls of the state we found a tie twice and a one point Obama lead the third time. Taking a bigger picture look, in 26 Obama/Romney polls dating back to November of 2010 we have only found the candidates separated by more than 3 points one time. It would be hard for the race in North Carolina to be much tighter.
North Carolinians narrowly disapprove of Obama, with 48% giving him good marks to 49% who are unhappy with his performance. They also have a narrowly unfavorable opinion of Romney with 46% of voters rating him positively to 49% with a negative opinion. The candidates are incredibly close on other measures as well. Romney leads Obama 49/47 in terms of who voters trust more on the economy, but Obama reverses those numbers for the 49/47 lead on who voters trust more on foreign policy.
57% of voters say they've been personally contacted by the Obama campaign, and 55% say they've been personally contacted by the Romney campaign. That those numbers are so close is an indication of the race in North Carolina being much different than 2008- the McCain campaign was sort of caught by surprise here and significantly lagged Obama's field operation.
Obama's up 54-42 with women, 92-7 with African Americans, and 60-32 with young voters in the state. Romney has a 57-40 lead with men, a 62-35 one with whites, and a 56-40 advantage with seniors. Democrats have a significant registration advantage in the state but Romney is overcoming that thanks to a 54-36 lead with independents.
The race in North Carolina started out as a toss up 2 years ago and it remains a toss up today. It's impossible to say who will end up coming out ahead.
Full results here