The rest of the Missouri poll...

Barack Obama came awfully close to winning Missouri in 2008, but his chances of doing it again in 2008 don't look very good. Our newest poll there finds him trailing Mitt Romney by a 10 point margin, 52-42.

Missouri's one state where Paul Ryan's selection might really be helping the GOP ticket. He has a 48/40 favorability rating there, better poll numbers than Obama, Romney, or Joe Biden has in the state. Voters there even narrowly support the Ryan Plan, 41/38, the first place where we've found that to be the case since Romney announced his selection.

Romney's substantial lead comes for 3 reasons:

1) He leads 49-43 with independents.

2) Republicans are more unified than Democrats. 86% of GOP voters are committed to Romney, while Obama has only 82% of Democrats behind him.

3) The state's moved to the right since 2008 and we find that the electorate is likely to be much more Republican friendly this time around.

Romney has narrowly positive favorability numbers at 48/45. Obama is deeply unpopular in the state with only 42% of voters approving of him to 55% who disapprove.

Thing are looking better for Democrats in the Governor's race. Jay Nixon leads Republican challenger Dave Spence 46-37, numbers pretty similar to PPP's last poll in late May which found Nixon ahead 45-34. Nixon is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 53% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 28% who disapprove. Most notably he breaks almost even with Republicans at 38/39, and he's at 54/25 with independents.

Nixon's crossover appeal extends to the head to head numbers. He's taking 19% of the Republican vote while losing only 8% of Democrats to Spence, and he has a 13 point lead with independents. Spence still isn't particularly well known. 28% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, 28% have an unfavorable one, and the largest group at 43% doesn't have one either way.

Despite barely surviving the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder starts out with a 45-38 lead in the general election over Susan Montee, thanks to a 44-33 lead with independents. In the race for Attorney General incumbent Democrat Chris Koster leads Republican challenger Ed Martin 41-39. Proposition B, which would raise the state's cigarette tax, leads 47-38. And Roy Blunt continues to have pretty middling approval numbers with only 37% of voters giving him good marks to 39% who disapprove.

Full results here

Comments

[Obama 2012]

Very interesting that Rasmussen has the good #s for Dems/Obama in Missouri while you guys have the bad #s... Makes one wonder if Rasmussen is trying to push Akin out.

[The Interesting Times]

Can I suggest a do-over of this poll in the next few weeks?

A few days later Rasmussen shows Akin losing by ten points, and even dragging Romney down to a one-point loss to Obama in Missouri.

That's a huge divergence from your results, especially considering Rasmussen is commonly regarded to have a pro-Republican "house effect."

You may have polled before most Missourian voters became aware of this issue.

[Matthew]

Your poll does not include Gary Johnson or Virgil Goode, both of whom are on the ballot in Wisconsin. Because you did not ask voters the same question that will be on their ballots, your poll is not valid.

[Matthew]

Oops, I meant to say Missouri, not Wisconsin.

[Jello Mayberry]

This poll equals shit same shitty numbers from senate race..