Barack Obama came awfully close to winning Missouri in 2008, but his chances of doing it again in 2008 don't look very good. Our newest poll there finds him trailing Mitt Romney by a 10 point margin, 52-42.
Missouri's one state where Paul Ryan's selection might really be helping the GOP ticket. He has a 48/40 favorability rating there, better poll numbers than Obama, Romney, or Joe Biden has in the state. Voters there even narrowly support the Ryan Plan, 41/38, the first place where we've found that to be the case since Romney announced his selection.
Romney's substantial lead comes for 3 reasons:
1) He leads 49-43 with independents.
2) Republicans are more unified than Democrats. 86% of GOP voters are committed to Romney, while Obama has only 82% of Democrats behind him.
3) The state's moved to the right since 2008 and we find that the electorate is likely to be much more Republican friendly this time around.
Romney has narrowly positive favorability numbers at 48/45. Obama is deeply unpopular in the state with only 42% of voters approving of him to 55% who disapprove.
Thing are looking better for Democrats in the Governor's race. Jay Nixon leads Republican challenger Dave Spence 46-37, numbers pretty similar to PPP's last poll in late May which found Nixon ahead 45-34. Nixon is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 53% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 28% who disapprove. Most notably he breaks almost even with Republicans at 38/39, and he's at 54/25 with independents.
Despite barely surviving the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder starts out with a 45-38 lead in the general election over Susan Montee, thanks to a 44-33 lead with independents. In the race for Attorney General incumbent Democrat Chris Koster leads Republican challenger Ed Martin 41-39. Proposition B, which would raise the state's cigarette tax, leads 47-38. And Roy Blunt continues to have pretty middling approval numbers with only 37% of voters giving him good marks to 39% who disapprove.
Full results here