Still a toss up in Missouri

PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds that Todd Akin is weathering the storm and the contest remains a toss up. Claire McCaskill leads 45-44, just a small change from our poll last week which found Akin ahead by a 44-43 margin.

A few key findings related to Akin's candidacy:

-53% of voters say that they accept Akin's apology for his comments last week to 40% who do not. For most Missourians Akin's words weren't a permanent deal breaker. Although Democrats are not ready to forgive him, 77% of Republicans say they accept his apology to only 18% who do not.

-Only 37% of voters now say they think Akin should withdraw from the race to 54% who believe he should not. There's a bipartisan consensus that he should stay in- 57% of independents, 53% of Democrats, and 52% of Republicans think he should continue running. There's clearly a disconnect on Akin's candidacy between GOP leaders in Washington DC and actual GOP voters back in Missouri.

-Akin's favorability numbers are still poor with 33% of voters rating him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. But that's up a net 11 points from our survey last Monday when it came down at 24/58. A lot of voters have already moved on from being disgusted with him over his comments.

One thing this whole episode hasn't done is soften voters' opinions of Claire McCaskill. Only 40% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 55% who disapprove. Even though 32% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Akin, only 11% of them actually say that they're going to vote for McCaskill. For many voters that don't care for Akin, he is still seen as the lesser of two evils. McCaskill has at least pulled into the lead with independent voters this round at 45-38.

When you dig in on the undecideds in this race 61% are voting for Mitt Romney to 25% who support Barack Obama. It's Republicans and GOP leaning independents who don't like Akin. Ultimately this race will be decided by conservative voters who have to decide if they're so unhappy with Akin that they want to let Democrats keep control of the Senate. My guess is those folks will ultimately hold their noses and support their party's candidate.

Missouri continues to look like a tough sell for Barack Obama. We find him trailing Romney 53-41, little change from the 52-42 we found on our poll there this week.

Full results here

Comments

[Hunter]

I'm getting a feeling that, this race might be getting over polled, I mean, since Todd Akin made the comments there have been 4 public polls and most likely more private ones. Maybe pollsters should give this race a break...

[Tom63010]

Senator Claire McCaskill has told people in our state that she is a Moderate. She reasons that while being very liberal in her social views she is conservative in her fiscal views and votes accordingly. The lapdog Claire became when Obama ran and subsequently became President is not lost on us. She has voted for every budget busting bill Obama put in front of her and her vote for Obamacare has left Missourians with a very bitter pill. In the primary election of 2009 Missourians voted by a 70% to 30% majority to prohibit Missouri from participating on Obamacare. When asked she implied we didn't know what was in the bill that made it fiscally wonderful.

[Matthew]

Your polls do not include any third party candidates who will be on the ballot. Because you are not asking the questions that will be on the ballot in November, your results are not valid.

[Obama 2012]

It's rather disgusting that Akin still has such a good chance of becoming a Senator. People just have no standards whatsoever.

[Adambohn]

I don't have a lot of experience polling, but I'd say you can never overpoll something. Hard to hit the same ~600 likely voters no matter how many pollsters ask questions. Plus, more polls = more evidence, which is always a good thing when looking for a good picture of the scene.

[Jim4theFuture e]

There is a Libertarian in the race. In order for your poll to be accurate the Libertarian needs to be included.

[fritz]

as much as i would like to have a third party option right now i dont see anything on the horizon that looks viable , lets be realistic - at the end of the day any vote that you cast on somebody who does not stand a chance is wasted !
There have been some reports that democrats in states with tight races have funneled money and support to third party candidates especially libertarians in a effort to siphon votes away from the GOP thereby increasing their chances to win the race , 3% can make a world of difference in a tight race so if you dont like obama and his policies then vote GOP , dont waste your vote !

[Dave Burton]

It's obvious to anyone who reads what he said, that when he said "legitimate" he meant "true," as distinguished from false. He never meant to suggest that rape is ever legitimate, only that sometimes an accusation of rape can be untruthful. Which is right.

I misspeak all the time. Who doesn't? A person's character and qualifications are not affected by verbal stumbles.

The people who are demanding that he drop out should be ashamed of themselves. Unless there is someone among them who never misspeaks, which I doubt, they are all hypocrites.