Romney slightly ahead in Wisconsin

PPP's first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP's last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44.

The biggest change Ryan's selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney's gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There's also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that's down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll.

Ryan isn't exactly a universally popular figure in his home state. 49% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. But that does give him the best numbers of anybody on either ticket in the state. Obama has a 46% approval rating with 50% of voters disapproving of him, Romney has a 45/48 favorability rating, and Joe Biden stands at 41/48.

A big reason Wisconsin remains so competitive for the GOP is that the electorate looks like it will be considerably more Republican leaning than it was in 2008, reflecting the continued high energy level of the party's voters after its victory in June's recall election. We find an electorate that's 34% Republican and 32% Democratic. Exit polls in 2008 showed Democrats with a 6 point turnout advantage, 39% to 33%. Although the enthusiasm gap that plagued Democrats nationally in 2010 has dissipated some places, it appears to still be a real issue for them in Wisconsin.

Choosing Ryan as his running mate isn't giving Romney any trouble with seniors in Wisconsin. That's actually where his greatest strength is, leading Obama 52-43 with them. Which isn't to say the Ryan Plan is popular in Wisconsin- only 40% of voters support it to 46% who are opposed. But the concern with it is coming much more from young voters than seniors.

This could just be a bounce for Romney that will fade away as the election gets closer but for now Wisconsin looks very much like a swing state.

Full results here

Comments

[Adam]

Romney's approval rating seems suspiciously high to me.

[kd bart]

Obama won the state 56-42 in 2008 but according to the tabs, the make up of this poll is only 51-43 Obama from 2008.

[Marczen Y'cousa]

It wont last. Ryan's going through a honeymoon period, once people start getting familiar with his budget plans and hypocrisy they won't vote for him.

Plus its worth pointing out he's up by ONE PERCENT, that's within the margin of error. Calm down people.

[TexasMom2012]

I think the Ryan bounce will be followed by the Convention bounce next week followed by the money and ad bounce when Romney is finally able to use his general election funds... And as it looks like the Dem convention will be a dud and that Obama's frenzy of fundraisers and flurry of futile ads have not helped moved the needle in Obama's direction... Well, I feel pretty darn good about November 7th, the morning after this election is decided. Plus it looks like Romney will have a sizable funding advantage heading into the fall election season when many voter finally begin to pay attention. Think I will pick up a nice bottle of Chardonnay to toast with Tuesday November 6th! Merely 77 days....

[William Jefferson Jr.]

Obama's problem is that his support is soft, and not just in Wisconsin. Even in states where he's supposedly at the "magic" 50% mark, a couple of months pass and a new poll shows him down below 50%. His support in Wisconsin in July was 50%, now it's 47%. That 50% in July was not hard support. This means that Romney has a good chance, given his money advantage in the final 2 months, to win every state where Obama is currently at 50% or even 51%. This means Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Maine are all in play. A blitz of negative ads will pull Obama down to 47-49%. So, basically, every state but California, New York, and Hawaii is in play.

[D]

This is while Obama has outspent Romney by almost 3 to 1. Romney currently has a $60 million cash advantage, and will be able to outspend Obama in the final months.

If it's this close when Obama is outspending Romney by a large amount - what happens when Romney starts to outspend Obama?

[Jeanne]

LOL - regarding the comment that Romney's rating look suspiciously high. Sure don't see comments like that when the O person is leading....Just watch the Romney/Ryan numbers rise when the voter ID law goes through. O had his chance, legal or not, and he blew it. Sorry O, as NEWSWEEK says-Hit the Road.

[John Becvar]

Wisconsin will have 2 republican senators, and a republican governor elected twice in a year and a half. Obama has no chance, unless if the turn-out on Madison and Milwaukee can get to the 115% level again like the recall election. But even the fraudulent vote by the public sector unions. Oils not overcome the legitimate vote. I would be shocked if Obama ended up any better off than the recall election. 7% loss.

[danny katz]

Bush lost wisconsin by 5k votes. why did anybody think this wouldn't be close?

[Obama 2012]

It looks like Ryan is giving Romney a bounce in his home state. Nothing to get too worried about yet. If it's still tied in Wisconsin in a month then maybe it'll be a more serious concern.

[NRH]

BAHAHAHAH.... 'Illinois and Connecticut are in play.' Now that's a good joke! But you'd have to be a Republican optimist on the brink of brain damage (well, even moreso than it takes to be a Ryan supporter in the first place) to believe THAT one.

[AG]

From what I can tell, Wisconsin is whiter than your average midwestern state, and it also seems to be ground zero for the Koch's strategy of wildly overspending on state and local races. The fact that they've made Wisconsin their test lab has seemingly taken its toll.

[Matthew]

Your poll does not include Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or Virgil Goode, all of whom are on the ballot in Wisconsin. Because you did not ask voters the same question that will be on their ballots, your poll is not valid.

[...]

If Bush couldn't win Wisconsin, neither will Romney.

[TeaPartyWarrior]

The majority of Americans who believe in Freedom and Liberty will rise up this November and support Romney/ Ryan.
It will be a landslide similar to Reagan over Carter.

Interestingly, the polls found that one close right up until election day. History will repeat itself. NOBAMA2012!

Vote Romney/ Ryan for the future of this country.

[info4@siftthru.net]

Keep dreaming GOP; OBAMA all the way.

[D]

To the person who said the survey for 2008 comes out only 51-43 Obama vs. the 56-42 actual result, that does not necessarily show a flaw of the poll. It may indicate that 5% of those who voted for Obama are not going to vote this time, which matches the whole enthusiasm gap that has been noted. (The 43% for McCain vs. 42% is well within the margin of error for the survey.) That means 9% (4 percentage points) of Obama voters have switched to Romney, and 10% (5 percentage points) of Obama voters will be staying home.