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August 14, 2012

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Matthew Reece

Your poll does not include Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or Virgil Goode, all of whom are on the ballot in Ohio. Your results are therefore invalid.

Obama 2012

Good news (but still too close for comfort.)

Not that I believe them but it's a little disconcerting that both of the daily trackers have Romney up today. (Gallup R+2, Ras R+3)

Smooth Jazz

I just saw another poll that had Ryan at 51% favorability in Ohio, so I have a simple question for you: What are the demographic partisan break down of this poll. I've seen pollsters in recent weeks juice their numbers to push an agenda by oversampling Dems. If your polls has a sample split of Dem 40%, Rep 20%, Ind 40%, then it means nothing, since that type of voting % is preposterous. What is your sample breakdown: Dems vs Reps vs Ind??

Todd Dugdale

Smooth Jazz:
You will find the words "Full results here" directly above the comments. The word "here" is a hyper-link.
Surprisingly, it takes you to the full results. This includes the partisan breakdown.

It's weird, because this isn't the first time you've been here to comment. All of this time you've apparently been commenting on polls that you never read, because you never saw the link to the results.

You may also wish to brush up on the concept of "weighting", which would illuminate these "preposterous" samples for you from other pollsters.

It seems pretty common for the wingnuts who comment here to completely miss that link. It never stops them from dismissing the poll, even though they had not seen the results when they commented.

Smooth Jazz

"Not that I believe them but it's a little disconcerting that both of the daily trackers have Romney up today. (Gallup R+2, Ras R+3)"

You SHOULD be worried. Gallup & Ras are polling hundeds of people daily and are measuring the daily contours of the race. Most important, the daily trackers have partisan breakdowns that are more representative of who will vote in Sep (ie Dem 35%, Rep, 33%, Ind 32%).

All these other media polls like Pew, CNN, NBC, Reuters el al are bogus because they over sample Dems to juice the numbers in Obamas favor to push an agenda. For examle, the Pew, CNN, Fox, NBC & Reuters polls have more Dems voting than Repubs by amounts ranging from Dem +20 to Dem +10. That AINT gonna happen. Too many Repub psyched about voting this year.


Steve Stauffer

Smooth Jazz-- The crosstabs show 40-D, 37-R, 24-I. This is probably a nearly perfect sample for the state of Ohio (due to the "contested" nature of almost all races here, there really are not many people who are truly independent voters).

Joe

Matthew: Yeah, they're not, and they'll probably get about 1%, between them. It's not very meaningful.

Smooth Jazz: It's actually in the pdf file: 40D, 37R, 24I.

NRH

Dear Jazzy, please learn to read. You see at the bottom where it says "Full results here"? If you click on the word 'here' you can see the partisan breakdown all by yourself.

Also, there's little point polling people whose best-case scenario fails to reach the margin of error, so including Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or Virgil Goode is a fairly pointless exercise. Johnson and Goode might draw from Romney as disaffected Republicans vote for them, Stein might get 0.1% if she's lucky (since Democrats still recall how Nader played spoiler in 2000 and largely aren't ready to make that mistake again), and otherwise it's not going to make a notable dent in the toplines.

Todd Dugdale

Smmoth Jazz wrote:
" the daily trackers have partisan breakdowns that are more representative of who will vote in Sep (ie Dem 35%, Rep, 33%, Ind 32%)."

How many people do you think will be voting in September? the election is in November.

Again, weighting for partisan ID is a bad idea. PPP doesn't do that; they weight for other things that are stable.

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