Barack Obama doesn't appear to be in any danger of actually losing Connecticut this fall, but it might be up there for the state where he falls the furthest from 2008. PPP's newest poll finds him ahead by just 8 points there, 51-43. He won it by 23 points against John McCain.
There are a couple of groups in particular that Obama's struggling with that are leading to the close race in the state. Only 41% of independents approve of the job he's doing to 53% who disapprove, and as a result he trails Romney47-40 with that group. He's also doing poorly with white voters, trailing Romney 48-46. You see the extent of Obama's issues with white voters when he's not winning them even in New England states.
Obama has a narrowly positive approval rating in Connecticut with 50% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove. The race in the state might be even closer if not for the fact that Romney is pretty unpopular there, with only 41% of voters rating him favorably to 53% with a negative opinion.
It speaks to Condoleezza Rice's unique appeal that even in a strongly Democratic state like Connecticut she has a 57/32 favorability rating. She's at 73/21 with Republicans, 55/32 with independents, and 46/40 even with Democrats. If she was on the ticket she'd pull Romney to within 5 points of Obama in the state, 48-43.
Obama will win Connecticut this fall but it is one state that's looking a whole lot more like 2004 than 2008 in this year's race.
Full results here