Obama slightly ahead in NC

PPP's newest North Carolina poll continues to find an extremely close race for President in the state, with Barack Obama at 49% to 46% for Mitt Romney. PPP started monthly polling of this contest in November of 2010 and Obama and Romney have now been within 3 points of each 21 of the last 22 months.

North Carolina voters aren't thrilled with the job Obama's doing- 48% approve and 49% disapprove. But they continue to have pretty tepid feelings toward Romney with only 42% of voters rating him favorably to 50% who have a negative opinion of him.

This new poll really shows how in migration has changed the landscape for Presidential campaigns in North Carolina. Obama and Romney are tied at 47% among voters who were born in North Carolina. But among those who've moved into the state from somewhere else Obama has a 51/45 advantage.

The divide is even more stark when you look at how long folks have lived in North Carolina. Romney dominates among long time residents of the state, leading 54-41 with those who have been here for more than 30 years. But Obama's even stronger among North Carolina's newest residents, leading 58-37 with those who have been here less than 30 years and 66-27 with folks who have been here less than ten years. These sorts of numbers are why North Carolina's swing state status isn't likely to fade any time soon. The long term trends speak to continued Democratic competitiveness.

There's an enormous gender gap in North Carolina with Obama leading 57-38 among women, but trailing 56-40 with men. Romney has a 48-44 lead with independents but Democrats can lose by that margin with independents and still win overall in North Carolina as long as they keep their party base in check and for now Obama's doing that, taking 82% of the Democratic vote. Obama's up 91-7 with African American voters- any thought that his position on gay marriage would hurt him on that front can be cast aside. And he's only down 58-38 with white voters- if he can stay in that mid to upper 30s range with white voters it will probably be enough to put him over the top.

None of Romney's potential Vice Presidential choices would make too big an impact in North Carolina. The strongest, as we've found elsewhere, would be Condoleezza Rice who has a 61/25 favorability rating. In the unlikely event that she was on the ticket Romney would gain 3 points to pull into a tie at 47 in the state. Home state Senator Richard Burr, although relatively unknown in the state with 35% of voters having no opinion about him, would tighten Obama's lead to 49/47.

Every month in North Carolina the story remains the same- it's a sheer toss up and the way the campaigns have spent here reinforces that.

Full results here

Comments

[nat amadeo]

your poll is a D plus 12 poll. do u think that in NC that dems outnumber republicans by 12?

[Mitch]

I just don't trust your results recently. They way skew toward the Democrats.

[James Rhodes]

Wow, what garbage. You really need to stop releasing fake polls or it won't be long before your reputation is tarnished for good. I know you are more than capable of carrying out unbiased and accurate polling when you want to, so what gives? Can you please go back to that? Leave the partisan junk at home; we all know Obama is not ahead in NC and has little chance of winning it this year. Move on to a new narrative please.

[Jeff Price]

What a shame that voters will have a third choice on election day, but PPP can't figure out how to poll more than two candidates. /fail

[Charlie Deliopo]

Yes, very accurate polls indeed. Much like your Amendment 1 polls that showed single digit opposition when the voting results were actually 60% opposed and 40% support...the real polls show Romney up in NC by at least 5%.

[Obama 2012]

Loving all of the desperate right wing comments. Yes keep believing that Rasmussen is the only pollster around... even though Rasmussen had a terrible track record in 2010.

[Inkan1969]

Nat Amadeo is the only poster here who raised a substantial issue about this poll, while Jeff Price complained about lack of third party polling. Everyone else here did nothing but accuse PPP of partisan bias without evidence. These replies are examples of parroting; if everyone keeps saying the same thing, people assume it's actually true. People keep repeating, "PPP is biased" over and over again, and they sheepishly assume it's true just for that. Like the claim of alleged "real polls" showing a large Romney lead.

[Jeff Price]

nat amadeo, North Carolina voter registration is 43% D, 31% R, 25% according to the NC BOE website. This poll was 45/33/21. So I'd say that it may have under sampled Independents, but it's within the margin of error.

[Matthew Reece]

Your poll does not include Gary Johnson, who is on the ballot in North Carolina. Your results are therefore invalid.