PPP's newest North Carolina poll continues to find an extremely close race for President in the state, with Barack Obama at 49% to 46% for Mitt Romney. PPP started monthly polling of this contest in November of 2010 and Obama and Romney have now been within 3 points of each 21 of the last 22 months.
North Carolina voters aren't thrilled with the job Obama's doing- 48% approve and 49% disapprove. But they continue to have pretty tepid feelings toward Romney with only 42% of voters rating him favorably to 50% who have a negative opinion of him.
This new poll really shows how in migration has changed the landscape for Presidential campaigns in North Carolina. Obama and Romney are tied at 47% among voters who were born in North Carolina. But among those who've moved into the state from somewhere else Obama has a 51/45 advantage.
The divide is even more stark when you look at how long folks have lived in North Carolina. Romney dominates among long time residents of the state, leading 54-41 with those who have been here for more than 30 years. But Obama's even stronger among North Carolina's newest residents, leading 58-37 with those who have been here less than 30 years and 66-27 with folks who have been here less than ten years. These sorts of numbers are why North Carolina's swing state status isn't likely to fade any time soon. The long term trends speak to continued Democratic competitiveness.
None of Romney's potential Vice Presidential choices would make too big an impact in North Carolina. The strongest, as we've found elsewhere, would be Condoleezza Rice who has a 61/25 favorability rating. In the unlikely event that she was on the ticket Romney would gain 3 points to pull into a tie at 47 in the state. Home state Senator Richard Burr, although relatively unknown in the state with 35% of voters having no opinion about him, would tighten Obama's lead to 49/47.
Every month in North Carolina the story remains the same- it's a sheer toss up and the way the campaigns have spent here reinforces that.
Full results here