Polls

Obama leads by six in New Hampshire

| Dustin Ingalls

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Raleigh, N.C. –
President Obama’s lead in the Granite State has been halved in the three months since PPP last polled the state.  He once led Mitt Romney by 12 points not long after he had wrapped up the GOP nomination, but he now leads by only six (51-45) among likely November voters.

As the Republican convention approaches, Romney has locked up his base.  He ceded 13% of his party to Obama in the previous poll, but now is losing only 8% of them.  But Obama has maintained his lead among the state’s plurality block of independent voters.  He leads Romney 52-40 with them now, roughly the same as his 50-39 advantage earlier.  Independents make up 36% of voters likely to cast a ballot this fall, one of the largest shares they have of any state’s electorate.

This corresponds with the movement in Obama’s approval rating and Romney’s favorability mark.  49% approve and 48% disapprove of the president’s job performance now, versus a healthy 52-45 in May.  At the same time, Romney has gotten more popular, almost entirely due to sunnier reviews from his base.  45% view him positively now, and 50% negatively, up from 40-54 in PPP’s last survey.  He has jumped from 77% to 86% favorability with the GOP.

Romney’s new running mate Paul Ryan is still a fairly unknown quantity to many of the state’s voters, and those who do say they have an opinion on him already are split about evenly.  27% are either unaware of him at this point or not able to say how they feel about him.  The rest break down at 36% favorable and 37% unfavorable.  Ryan will be a polarizing figure, and that effect should only increase as he campaigns more for the ticket.  67% of Republicans like him, and 64% of Democrats dislike him, while independents fall at 33-39.

“New Hampshire is like many of the states that Obama won in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s not likely to win by the same kind of margin that he did last time around, but he’s still the clear favorite there.”

PPP surveyed 1,055 likely New Hampshire voters from August 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Jeanne Shaheen’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .50%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q6 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Democrat Jeanne
Shaheen or her Republican opponent?
Jeanne Shaheen…. .51%
Republican
opponent……………..42%
Not sure …………….. . 7%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%

Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

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