Obama lead down to just 2 points in Iowa

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state declining all the way to two points. He's at 47% to 45% for Mitt Romney. In July we found Obama ahead 48-43 and in May it was 51-41.

Iowa makes yet another swing state where voters don't really care for either Obama or Romney. Obama's approval numbers are particularly poor with only 45% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. The fact that he has a small lead in the state despite his under water approval speaks to at least some voters regarding this election as a choice rather than a referendum. Voters aren't big on Romney either with 47% rating him favorably to 48% with an unfavorable opinion.

If wind energy ends up being a defining issue for Iowa voters that will be good news for Obama's prospects in the state. 54% of voters support the tax credit for wind energy production companies to only 26% who oppose it. Among independents support is 58/25. 68% of voters say they consider wind energy to be an important issue, including 29% of voters who say that it's 'very important.' When asked which Presidential candidate they trust more on wind energy Obama beats Romney 47-37. In a state that looks like a sheer toss up this could end up being a defining issue.

A lot of attention has been paid to Republicans regaining the party registration advantage in Iowa this year. The reason Obama continues to lead the state anyway is a large lead among unaffiliated voters. On this particular poll he has a 49-36 edge with them and that finding has been consistent in our polling- he was up 46-38 with them on our July poll and 54-34 in May.

It's hard to quantify but the Paul Ryan pick could be helping Romney at least a little bit in Iowa. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. Those aren't earth shattering numbers, but they're at least better than Obama and Romney's. Iowa makes another swing state where voters express a positive view of Ryan while also being opposed to the Ryan Plan by a 46/37 margin. People like the man, but not necessarily his policies.

The gender gap shows up in a major way in Iowa. Romney leads 51-40 with men, but that's not enough to offset Obama's 53/40 advantage with women. There's also a pretty big generational gap with Obama leading 50-40 among voters under 45, but Romney ahead 48-45 with voters over 45.

“Barack Obama’s lead in Iowa has steadily declined in our polling over the last three months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He still has a narrow advantage, but it’s clear that the state deserves its perceived swing state status.”

Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,244 likely Iowa voters from August 23-26. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 47%
Unfavorable .................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable........................................................ 46%
Unfavorable .................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q5 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan's
proposal for reforming Medicare?
Support ........................................................... 37%
Oppose ........................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%

Q6 Do you support or oppose the tax credit for
wind energy production companies?
Support ........................................................... 54%
Oppose ........................................................... 26%
Not sure .......................................................... 20%

Q7 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of wind energy?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q8 Is the wind energy issue very important,
somewhat important, or not that important to
you?
Very important................................................. 29%
Somewhat important ....................................... 39%
Not that important ........................................... 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 1%

Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 43%
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 9%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 11%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 19%
Moderate......................................................... 28%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 24%
Very conservative ........................................... 17%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 35%
Republican...................................................... 38%
Independent/Other.......................................... 27%

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White .............................................................. 93%
Other............................................................... 7%

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 30%
46 to 65........................................................... 38%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

Comments

[Midwesterners]

It's time for the Democrats to stop playing nice everywhere--from Iowa to Wisconsin to Massachusetts to every state in the country. The Republicans never ever take the high road--indeed, they continuously laugh at Democrats for doing so.

For decades now, Rove, Norquist, the Koch Brothers and Limbaugh have been at the helm of their party--and their years and years of endless lies and smears are working everywhere! These folks long ceased caring about facts and the truth! ! From the Presidential race to almost every down-ballot race, the Dems must run ads that concentrate on showing just how arrogant and entitled the Republican Party is by revealing how Romney and Ryan fail to pay their fair share of taxes, support Corporations and the Top 1 Percent at everyone else's expense, seek to cut Medicare, and are ready to send America back to Stone Age with their political platform. The same is true for ads in ALL races--especially in the Senate races in places like Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Wisconsin for starters. In short, Democratic candidates must start connecting their Republican opponents with the Republican Party's heinous political/social agenda and platform--and not let them escape from this!

Democrats at every level of government must start realizing that what they are up against in political races is not just a candidate but the Republican "brand." And this Republican brand has -- from decades of Culture Wars that folks like Rove and Norquist started--too often succeeded in making the Democrats look weak and on the defensive. If Democrats continue to play nice and take the high road, they are fulfilling the Republican Party's prophecy.

[Fred Feareo]

What are you talking about "Midwesterner?" The dems are the ones who never take the high road. How long did it take for Obama to fabricate that fictitious birth certificate.... btw, here's even more proof it wasn't real: http://okmed.wordpress.com/2012/08/17/obamas-real-birth-certificate-liberals-should-delete-now/

[Midwesterners]

"Fictitious birth certificate," Fred? Really?!! I rest my case!