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August 28, 2012


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Khyber Jones

Internals suggest a GOP leaning sample. 38% GOP, 35% Dem and 27% independent. Actual Iowa registration stats are approximately 35.6% unaffiliated, 32.55% GOP and 31.85% Dem. The internals have Obama leading among indies 49-37, so if adjusted to actual registration numbers, Obama's lead grows to close to 4 points.

There has also been purging of the voter rolls by Iowa's Secretary of State that has reduced numbers for both parties. However, Iowa has same day registration, so it's very likely that the number of registered GOPers and Dems will go up by election day. Obama might have the edge among those who are newer Iowa residents and those who simply need to update their registration. He may add more net voters than the GOP does between now and election day.

I do agree with the main point, however, that Iowa will be a closely contested battleground. It is one of the few battleground states where Barack Obama is somewhat underperforming his 2008 numbers at a similar stage of the race.

Dustin Ingalls

1.) It's party self-ID, not based on registration records. We don't weight for party ID.

2.) Turnout by party never matches registration. Unaffiliated voters are almost always less likely to turn out than partisans, so the proportion of Ds and Rs will almost always be higher than their proportion in the overall registered electorate.


To address something that the first commentator brought up: you can't go off of registration numbers to say that a sample is leaning one way or another. It's well known that democrats usually hold a registration advantage in swing states, but republicans are more likely to show up on election day. That probably has a lot to do with young people being mostly registered democrats and the worst age group for voter turnout. Most polling firms, including PPP, have switched over from registered voter polls to likely voter polls.


I am from Iowa. Female and a Romney supporter. And I do like Romney very much.

Obama 2012

Interesting. It seems possible that Obama could win Virginia, Ohio, & Florida while losing Iowa. That would be an interesting mix... Regardless Obama is so close to 270 he doesn't necessarily need Iowa... that said; this is a disappointing #.

It's sad to the Republican lies working on uninformed voters.

I have no doubt that if voters were simply presented the facts of what each side wants to do Obama would be up by over 20 points nationally.


Your polls do not include any third party candidates who will be on the ballot. Because you are not asking the questions that will be on the ballot in November, your results are not valid.

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