Obama lead declining in Iowa

PPP's newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state declining all the way to two points. He's at 47% to 45% for Mitt Romney. In July we found Obama ahead 48-43 and in May it was 51-41.

Iowa makes yet another swing state where voters don't really care for either Obama or Romney. Obama's approval numbers are particularly poor with only 45% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. The fact that he has a small lead in the state despite his under water approval speaks to at least some voters regarding this election as a choice rather than a referendum. Voters aren't big on Romney either with 47% rating him favorably to 48% with an unfavorable opinion.

If wind energy ends up being a defining issue for Iowa voters that will be good news for Obama's prospects in the state. 54% of voters support the tax credit for wind energy production companies to only 26% who oppose it. Among independents support is 58/25. 68% of voters say they consider wind energy to be an important issue, including 29% of voters who say that it's 'very important.' When asked which Presidential candidate they trust more on wind energy Obama beats Romney 47-37. In a state that looks like a sheer toss up this could end up being a defining issue.

A lot of attention has been paid to Republicans regaining the party registration advantage in Iowa this year. The reason Obama continues to lead the state anyway is a large lead among unaffiliated voters. On this particular poll he has a 49-36 edge with them and that finding has been consistent in our polling- he was up 46-38 with them on our July poll and 54-34 in May.

It's hard to quantify but the Paul Ryan pick could be helping Romney at least a little bit in Iowa. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. Those aren't earth shattering numbers, but they're at least better than Obama and Romney's. Iowa makes another swing state where voters express a positive view of Ryan while also being opposed to the Ryan Plan by a 46/37 margin. People like the man, but not necessarily his policies.

The gender gap shows up in a major way in Iowa. Romney leads 51-40 with men, but that's not enough to offset Obama's 53/40 advantage with women. There's also a pretty big generational gap with Obama leading 50-40 among voters under 45, but Romney ahead 48-45 with voters over 45.

There's not much doubt at this point- Iowa's a swing state and the landscape there looks a whole lot more like 2000 or 2004 than it does 2008. Obama's unpopularity gives the GOP a great chance at reclaiming the state.

Full results here

Comments

[Khyber Jones]

Internals suggest a GOP leaning sample. 38% GOP, 35% Dem and 27% independent. Actual Iowa registration stats are approximately 35.6% unaffiliated, 32.55% GOP and 31.85% Dem. The internals have Obama leading among indies 49-37, so if adjusted to actual registration numbers, Obama's lead grows to close to 4 points.

There has also been purging of the voter rolls by Iowa's Secretary of State that has reduced numbers for both parties. However, Iowa has same day registration, so it's very likely that the number of registered GOPers and Dems will go up by election day. Obama might have the edge among those who are newer Iowa residents and those who simply need to update their registration. He may add more net voters than the GOP does between now and election day.

I do agree with the main point, however, that Iowa will be a closely contested battleground. It is one of the few battleground states where Barack Obama is somewhat underperforming his 2008 numbers at a similar stage of the race.

[Dustin Ingalls]

1.) It's party self-ID, not based on registration records. We don't weight for party ID.

2.) Turnout by party never matches registration. Unaffiliated voters are almost always less likely to turn out than partisans, so the proportion of Ds and Rs will almost always be higher than their proportion in the overall registered electorate.

[Bob]

To address something that the first commentator brought up: you can't go off of registration numbers to say that a sample is leaning one way or another. It's well known that democrats usually hold a registration advantage in swing states, but republicans are more likely to show up on election day. That probably has a lot to do with young people being mostly registered democrats and the worst age group for voter turnout. Most polling firms, including PPP, have switched over from registered voter polls to likely voter polls.

[Nancy]

I am from Iowa. Female and a Romney supporter. And I do like Romney very much.

[Obama 2012]

Interesting. It seems possible that Obama could win Virginia, Ohio, & Florida while losing Iowa. That would be an interesting mix... Regardless Obama is so close to 270 he doesn't necessarily need Iowa... that said; this is a disappointing #.

It's sad to the Republican lies working on uninformed voters.

I have no doubt that if voters were simply presented the facts of what each side wants to do Obama would be up by over 20 points nationally.

[Matthew]

Your polls do not include any third party candidates who will be on the ballot. Because you are not asking the questions that will be on the ballot in November, your results are not valid.