Obama continues to lead in Virginia

PPP's newest poll of Virginia finds Barack Obama leading by 5 points, 50-45. In 8 Virginia surveys PPP has done this cycle, Obama has never led Mitt Romney by less than 4 points. It continues to look like it could be his firewall state this fall.

Obama's continued success in the state is very much a product of its rapidly changing population. Among voters who have lived in Virginia for less than 20 years Obama leads Romney 62-32. When you narrow it to folks who have come to the state in the last ten years his advantage expands even further to 67-29. Romney leads 51-45 with folks who have been in Virginia for more than 20 years and they make up 68% of the electorate, but the transplants are so heavily Democratic that he leads the state overall.

One effect the newer voters are having on the Virginia electorate is to make it more racially diverse. Obama trails 56-40 with white voters, but with non-whites he's ahead 75-19.

The Virgil Goode situation continues to be worth keeping an eye on in Virginia. Our new poll finds him receiving only 4% of the vote but he pulls it pretty much all from Romney, pushing him down to 42% while Obama remains at 50%, giving him an 8 point lead. It's unlikely Goode will really end up having that big of an effect if he gets on the ballot, but if it gets to the point where Virginia is just decided by a point or so social conservatives in his old district voting for him instead of Romney really could prove to be a difference maker.

Virginia voters narrowly approve of the job Obama is doing, 49/46. They have a slightly unfavorable opinion of Romney, 46/49. They have a slightly unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden as well, 46/47. The person with the best numbers on the two tickets is Paul Ryan, who has a 47/41 favorability rating. Interestingly despite Ryan's good numbers personally, only 38% of voters support the Ryan plan while 46% are opposed to it. We saw a similar trend in our Wisconsin polling over the weekend and it suggests that voters like Ryan personally but don't necessarily like what the stands for. Democrats need to try to shift the focus with Ryan from the man to the policies.

Virginia's tightened up a little bit- Obama had led each of our last two polls there by 8 points- but for now the President continues to look like the favorite there.

Full results here

Comments

[Jay Thompson]

This is good news despite all the other things have been polled lately.

[jenn]

What, if any, effect do you see the new voter ID law having on the race?

[Brian]

You can include myself with the VA transplants in NOVA. This group is very educated working within Finance, Government, Technology, & Military.

The only people with Romney stickers on their cars are the old folks. The data shows what everyone already knows in VA. It's very much a base election here. If Obama can get out young people, college educated whites, blacks, & new residents Romney goes down.

Goode should be able to get 1.5% of the vote.

[Smooth Jazz]

Thanks for the poll. What is the partisan breakdown of your poll: What is the number of Dems versus Rep versus Ind that comprise your survey??

[NRH]

Dear Smoothie: Please learn to click the 'Full results HERE' link at the bottom so you can read the answers to your questions directly.

[Ryan]

Q13 on full results contains the partisan breakdown.

[Mike Hall]

When there's a seven percent difference in favor of the Dems (even though American party identification has an even split) and when 5% more AAs are used, then who voted in a historic turnout in 2008, then you have problems. This poll is hardly accurate. Romney is actually ahead, it seems.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Mike Hall: According to exit polls, 20% of the VA electorate in 2008 was AA. We have 17%. There's no indication there has been much of a drop in enthusiasm from black voters for voting for Obama or voting in general. In fact, in our national polls, black voters remain one of the most enthused groups about turning out to vote--way more than whites and almost as much as Tea Partiers and Hispanics.

Also, the party breakdown in 2008 was D+6. No room to complain here, especially considering the continually growing and blue-ifying NoVa.