Obama ahead in Colorado

PPP's newest Colorado poll finds Barack Obama leading 49-43 in the state, just a shade closer than 49-42 when we last polled there two months ago. Obama continues to have the upper hand in Colorado because he leads with all the fastest growing groups of the electorate.

The key to Obama's lead in Colorado is Hispanic voters. They like Obama a lot, approving of him by a 66/33 margin. And they strongly dislike Romney, with only 28% rating him favorably to 69% with an unfavorable opinion. As a result Obama currently leads with them by a 2:1 margin, 58/29. Add that to Obama basically running even with whites, down only 48-47 to Romney, and it's the formula for a strong Obama standing in the state.

There's also a broad generational gap in Colorado. Seniors support Romney by a 53/42 margin, but young voters go for Obama by a 59/27 spread. When you expand the categories, Romney leads 51-45 with voters over 45 in the state but Obama leads 55-34 with voters 45 and under. That bodes well for Democrats' long term prospects in Colorado.

Obama's up 49-38 with independents and he's also benefiting from a more unified party base. 92% of Democrats say that they'll vote for him, while only 85% of Republicans say they'll vote for Romney. Registered Democrats being more likely to vote for their party's candidate than registered Republicans is consistent with what we found in the 2010 Senate race, which is why the GOP's registration advantage in the state is less important than it is sometimes made out to be.

We also tested an iteration of the race in Colorado involving Gary Johnson and he actually hurts Obama a little bit more than Romney. He takes 6% of the vote and pulls Obama's lead down to 4 points at 46-42. That's because Johnson gets 13% of independents, taking more from ones who lean toward Obama than Romney.

Colorado is another state like North Carolina where we released numbers this morning that isn't particularly thrilled with the job Barack Obama has done- but isn't sold on Mitt Romney either. 47% of voters approve of the job Obama's doing to 49% who disapprove. But Romney's numbers are worse, with only 44% of voters rating him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion.

Colorado is closer than it was in 2008 but the combination of Hispanics, young voters, and independents continues to have Obama favored there.

Full results here

Comments

[Bob]

Can we please see a Georgia poll soon? I'd like to see if Obama has a chance at winning the state. No one else has polled it recently.

[WordsMatter]

Completely at odds with Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls. The partisan composition makes a difference.

[david]

NC is a lost cause for Obama this time around, and I think they know it, thats why theyre cutting back on the DNC convention here...I almost expect some demonstrations in Charlotte during the convention. Cant speak to Colo but I think the race is closer than you show, but thats just a hunch...we shall see I guess:}

[Dfw3157]

What percentage were the Dems over sampled in this poll?

[Christus Regeln]

Good thing most of the Hispanics in Colorado are illegal and will not be voting.

[Pat]

Yet another absolutely ridiculous poll by PPP. Your Democratic bias is truly astonishing

[TexasMom2012]

Gee, where is the breakdown on the people polled? D,R,I? Otherwise this poll is useless. Enthusiasm? Likely or Registered Voter sample? Useless, indeed.

[Fong]

Why bother releasing this poll if you don't reveal the +(pick a number) Democrat sample size in your story?

[Bob Davis]

Well, I guess it's all over, right? PPP couldn't possibly be biased with their polling methodology, could they? :)

[Ray Lopez]

I am an hispanic in Colorado. I have never been polled in my life. Where the hell are you taking these polls? at Home Depot? Any hispanic who is going to vote for Obama is either not paying attention or has been in a coma for the last 4 years.

[NRH]

Looks like some right-wing nut-blogger linked the story and the kooks came out!

[Inkan1969]

I thought these comments were moderated. How then did the explicity racist comment by Christus Regeln pass through?

[Obama 2012]

All of you right wingers screaming bias: On what facts to you base your claims? PPP has a great track record! On other hand most of you love to quote Rasmussen polls despite how badly biased towards Republicans they were in the 2010 Senate races.

[Todd Dugdale]

TexasMom2012 wrote:
"Gee, where is the breakdown on the people polled? D,R,I?"

Here's a clue, TexasMom: Above the comments is a sentence, "Full results here". The word "here" is a hyperlink. It takes you to the full results, which is surprising, I know.

[Obama 2012]

Ray Lopez - it always amuses me when people say things like that... "I'm a ____ and I like this or that ... so I'm sure all the rest of us must like this or that."

That would be like me saying "I'm a white male and I support Obama... where are all of these white males who support Romney?!?"

You're just one person. You don't represent an entire demographic.