PPP's newest look at the Virginia Senate race finds Tim Kaine and George Allen dead even at 46%. Although we've always found a tight contest, this is the first time in our last five polls that Kaine hasn't had a modest lead. Last month Kaine had a 46-44 advantage.
The numbers break down pretty much as you would expect. Kaine is up 50/39 with women, while Allen has a 53/40 advantage with men. There's almost no spillover across party lines- only 6% of Democrats are planning to vote for Allen and just 4% of Republicans are supporting Kaine. Allen leads 55-37 with white voters, and Kaine leads 66-25 with non-white voters. Kaine leads 49-40 with voters under 45, and Allen leads 50-43 with voters over 45. Everything about this race is about as predictable as it could be.
Allen and Kaine have very similar favorability numbers as well. Allen comes out at a net +2 with 43% of voters seeing him favorably to 41% with an unfavorable opinion. Kaine is at a net +1 with 45% of voters rating him positively to 44% who have a negative view.
Nothing in this race ever really changes.
Other notes from Virginia:
-Mark Warner continues to be Virginia's most popular politician with 50% of voters approving of him to 27% who disapprove. Warner has more crossover support than any of his colleagues with 29% of Republicans giving him good marks. He has almost identical numbers to McDonnell with independents at 54/29.
-The Virginia Senate race would have been a challenge for Democrats this year even if Jim Webb had decided to run for reelection. Voters are evenly divided on his job performance with 37% approving and 37% disapproving of him. He'd probably be in a similarly close race with Allen if that had been the match up.
-Eric Cantor is a good example of how unpopular House Republicans are with voters right now. Even in his home state just 27% have a favorable opinion of him to 39% who see him negatively. He's at 29/41 with independents. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state 45-41.
-Artur Davis' interest in Virginia politics has received a lot of attention recently, but nobody there really knows who he is yet. 83% of voters have no opinion about him- among those who do he isn't faring very well- 5% rate him positively to 12% with an unfavorable opinion. Davis is at 5/16 with African Americans and 6/9 with Republicans.
-59% of Virginia voters would be happy to pay 14 cents extra for a Papa John's pizza so that the company's employees can have health care to 22% who would be unwilling to. Even Republicans would by a 45/34 margin.
Full results here