Akin 44 McCaskill 43

Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn't moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That's basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.

It's not that Missouri voters are ok with or supportive of Akin's comments. 75% of voters, including even 64% of Republicans, say they were inappropriate to only 9% who consider them to have been appropriate. 79% of voters say they disagree with what Akin said, including 65% who express 'strong' disagreement with him. 51% of GOP voters say they strongly disagree with him.

All of that is taking a toll on Akin's image. Only 24% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 58% with a negative one. He's pretty universally disliked by Democrats (3/85) and independents (21/61) and even with Republicans (43/34) he's on only narrowly positive ground.

But for all of that the overall numbers in the race have moved very little. When we polled in May McCaskill was getting only 8% of the Republican vote, and even with the controversy around Akin she's only pushed up to 10% of it. GOP voters dislike McCaskill so much they're not going to vote for her no matter what their nominee does. Independent voters haven't moved at all either. In May they supported Akin 45-41, and even though they don't like him on tonight's poll we still found him leading 45-41 with them.

The lack of movement speaks to a couple of things. One is the hyper polarization these days in American politics. Voters just aren't inclined to vote cross party lines with their voters regardless of the circumstances. And the other thing it speaks to is McCaskill's continued unpopularity. Only 41% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 53% who disapprove and for many voters their dislike of McCaskill trumps their concerns about Akin.

Akin has certainly been damaged by this whole thing- a Survey USA poll last week showed him up by 11 points in the wake of his primary victory. But he's by no means out of it- it looks like Missouri's increasing Republican lean over the last few years would give him a decent chance at victory in spite of this major controversy.

This poll was conducted between 6 and 9 PM central time tonight.

Full results here

Comments

[Jay Thompson]

Shame on these people in this poll.

[Sthisss]

Because this was a flash poll you only conducted over a 3 hour period in one night, I don't think it's up to snuff. If Akin stays in, wait a week, then conduct a full poll using your usual 3-day methodology.

[Obama 2012]

that's absolutely insane. it's unbelievable that 44% of Missouri voters would vote for this guy. just... wow. embarrassing.

[RE]

Claire McCaskill is such an unlikable human being that Akin still has a chance...

[Jeff]

maybe for now but this is a small sample and really doesn't reveal much considering that he made the comment yesterday. Plan on McCaskil not only to gain steam but democrats in the rest of the country as well.

[Nathan Paren]

It seems that 44% of Missouri voters don't have too much of a problem with an average run-of-the mill stupid comment. Akin will be fine, and this nonsense will blow over shortly.

[VickySTL]

This: GOP voters dislike McCaskill so much they're not going to vote for her no matter what their nominee does. Independent voters haven't moved at all either.

No matter what kind of hysteria and smears his opponents try to whip up, voters are simply going to DIG IN and tough it out.

Hopefully Akin will tough it out too.

As mentioned, the "hyper polarization" only contributes to the hunkering down.

Basically Missourians seem to be saying "FU" to those trying to dictate what candidate is "best" v. Claire. Anything but Claire!

[Jay]

This is exactly what I predicted today at work...this ultimately won't much matter. Not sure why the GOP is hyperventilating to get rid of him...maybe after seeing this poll they'll calm down.

McCaskill barely won even in the 2006 wave election.

[BruinKid]

Can your poll include Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine next time? The Libertarian got 2.2% in 2006 when McCaskill barely won with under 50% of the vote, so every little bit matters. It appears there are no other minor party candidates on the ballot.

[marvin]

Hang in there,Todd, !!!

[Tricky Trey]

Just out of curiosity, could these numbers be further broken down by gender?

[Ursus]

Missouri is the same state that voted McCaskill's dead husband into office, then re-elected his housewife to serve another term.

[Teemu]

MO party ID edge according to exit polls.

2010 R+3
2008 D+6
2006 R+2
2004 R+1

So 2010 R+3 was most Republican heavy turnout for quite a while.

Your poll has R+9, your May poll had D+2, this means that despite of Akin having 1 point lead as he had in May, his support has collapsed.

[Teemu]

If we use 2010 MO senate race exit poll party ID (R+3, this year is not going to be more Republican heavy than that) on your cross tabs McCaskill actually leads by 3.5 points 45.1 – 41.6.

[Rebecca Fine]

Probably a little soon to get an accurate result. More accurate polls will come out in the weeks ahead (if Akin stays in). I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people still vote for Akin. Politics is very divided, and many people will still vote (R) in Missouri regardless of whose name it's next too. Still, if Akin stays in, McCaskill will probably narrowly pull ahead.

[Paul Fleisher]

Around the time of Nero,ancient Romans got their drinking water supply from lead pipes. Lead poisoning as we now know,causes brain damage.
People of Missouri, please recheck your water supply or at least,drink responsibly....and with all this super pac secret money contamination going around, maybe we all should do the same....Show Me.

[The Interesting Times]

This may have something to do with the difference between the candidates' positions on major policy issues, and off-the-wall opinions everyone knows won't be put into practice anyway.

[Numbercruncher]

Nice Try. Clearly an attempt to keep Akin in the race the next 24 hours! Ppp tracking polls are agenda driven. While their final polls are so so their tracking polls tend to favor democrats by a ton....ppp wants akin in this race as do Democrats!

[N4cerinc]

Question, who benefits the most out of Akin staying in the race? The Republican Party or Democrats (via Claire McCaskill)?

[datechguy]

Hmmm a left leaning polling outfit oversampling the GOP, must be the first time in history.

I wonder why that might be, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the political advantage for the left in Akin staying in the race

[realnrh]

A three-hour poll? Given the compressed timeframe, there's no real way to get a good multi-day sample with callbacks, but it feels like you might have wanted to discuss the shift in methodology, the reasons for it, and the possible results of such a shift in the blog post itself. Those party ID and presidential-result numbers look off, but the nature of a flash poll could be the cause.

[pbrower2a]

The story hasn't sunk in. A week from now people will have discussed it more. Akin may be in a collapse phase.

[Inkan1969]

That May poll was way before the primary. Wasn't Akin just an also ran back then? Akin's May performance than reflected McCaskill's unpopularity instead.

Other polls taken after the primary showed Akin with a large lead over McCaskill. So I think a flash poll with Akin in a near tie with McCaskill actually does show movement away from him. If Akin perseveres, the problem is just going to get worse for him, and he's going to sink in the polls.

[LaVonne Wilson]

If Missourians think McCaskill hurts their image what do they think Akin is going to do? I can personally forgive him for making such an unforgivable assessment of the definition of rape, but to put him in office to continue trying to enforce that argument gives me the cold chills!!!!! The definition of "rape" is forced sexual contact so what can be legitimate about that????

[Jbigss1965]

Tricky Trey, you are wrong. You are thinking of Mel Carnahan's wife Jean. Nice try, though.

[Trenchpress]

Obama is right “Rape is Rape”; Rape: “take away by force”; Democrats in the closet rapists? http://trenchpress.com/?p=17441

Akin makes one mistake and told to drop out, while most make a dozen mistakes and told forgive them. But Todd Akin that didn’t rape is worse than the rapist by many.The Republicans are lately being guilty of hypocrisy.

People are swayed by what the media says and for the GOP to not have a backbone speaks volumes, and can be seen as worse than the Democrats. The GOP burned many republicans by pushing for the most far left candidate and they are burning the rest of their base to not be united like the Democrats.

[Mitchell]

Lol, if there was ever any doubt that PPP is a corrupt mouthpiece for the DNC and guilty of agenda polling at it's worst, the +9 Republican sample in this poll shows it in all it's glory.

Even in 2010 Republicans were only +3 in turnout and PPP has them +9?

PPP you are a joke.

[Paul C.]

Deleting my bookmark for this site. PPP, you just went from a Democratic polling group to an arm of the DNC. Disgusting.

[Michael H.]

Congrats to all the knuckle-dragging Neanderthals who are rooting for Todd Akin.

[George]

I strongly suggest you go back to MO sometime around September 9 and repeat this poll after the whole situation plays out. The poll was too early to determine the actual impact.

[STEVE SIPKO]

everybody says stupid things one time or another,maybe he should cheat on his taxes,that seems to give some a pass,to re-election??

[Inez Babington]

Dem polsters PPP oversampled Republicans by 9 points in that poll. They WANT Akin in this race. The worst thing for Dems is that Akin is replaced. By the way, it sure is a CHANGE to see Republicans the ones who are over-sampled in polls!!

Today's MSNBC Headline: "Obama up 4 points going into convention." Check out the poll internals: Dems 45 and Reps 39 if you add separate strong-lean-not strong numbers. So the headline SHOULD read: "Obama up by 4 if Dems are over-sampled by 6"

To all my fellow conservatives: PLEASE do not be fooled by these bogus polls! PLEASE check the poll internals first! They are trying to make us think that Obama has a lead that DOES NOT EXIST. DO NOT FALL for the lame-stream media SNAKE OIL!

Remember Wisconsin???? Remember how all the exit polls said it was 50/50?? Result: Walker won 52-47.

Today's MSNBC poll internals:
Strong Democrat...................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ............ 10
Independent/lean Democrat ........... 11
Strictly Independent ................ 13
Independent/lean Republican ......... 12
Not very strong Republican .. ........ 9
Strong Republican ................... 18
Other (VOL)........................... 3
Not sure ........................... 1

[me]

Claire thinks we are one of the wealthiest nations in the world and that we deserve govt. healthcare. Wonder who she thinks will pay for it? We are over 16 Trillion dollars in debt. and climbing!!! Common sense; Not possible. Sometimes politicians will tell us anything for a vote. Todd Akin makes better sense when it comes to the economy just read his record verses Claire. BTW...the remark Akin said he admitted it was a big mistake and retracted. I would defiantly vote by their record. Akin has my vote over reckless spendaholic Claire.