Polls

Stable presidential race in Michigan and Pennsylvania

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Presidential polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania find Barack Obama with healthy leads in both states. He’s up by 14 points, 53-39, in Michigan and by 6 points, 49-43, in Pennsylvania. We last looked at each of these states in May. Speaking to the stability of the Presidential race over the last couple months the Michigan result is exactly identical to the last poll, and the Pennsylvania poll differs only slightly from Obama’s 50-42 advantage on the previous one.
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There are a couple common themes driving Obama’s success in these states. The biggest is his competitiveness with white voters. He actually leads 48-44 with them in Michigan, and he just narrowly trails 46-45 with them in Pennsylvania. Given the healthy sized African American populations in both those states anything close to a split with white voters will give Obama an easy victory. Obama is also benefiting from a huge lead with women in both states, 59-33 in Michigan and 54-37 in Pennsylvania, which helps him offset a closer race with men.

One thing that could be a huge game changer in both of these states? Mitt Romney selecting Condoleezza Rice as his running mate. She would give him a 6 point advantage both places, pulling him into a tie in Pennsylvania at 45-45 and narrowing the gap in Michigan to 50/42. Rice is a very unusually popular political figure. In Pennsylvania her favorability rating is 60/27 and in Michigan it’s 56/28. She’s even seen favorably by Democrats- 47/38 in Pennsylvania and 41/40 in Michigan- in both states. Her selection has the potential to be a game changer.

Despite his lead Obama’s approval numbers in Pennsylvania continue to be a little bit worrisome. Only 46% of voters approve of him to 50% who disapprove. His numbers are better in Michigan where he has a 51% approval rating to 44% who are unhappy with him. Romney continues to have personal likability issues in both states. In Pennsylvania his favorability rating is 39/51 and in Michigan it’s 38/55.

“Barack Obama is still a clear favorite in Michigan and Pennsylvania,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He may not match his 2008 margin of victory in those states, but he’s in a good position to win them again.”

PPP surveyed 758 Pennsylvania voters and 579 Michigan voters between July 21st and 23rd. The margin of error for the Pennsylvania survey is +/-3.6% and for the Michigan one it’s +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Michigan Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%

Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Bobby Jindal for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 54%
Romney-Jindal………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Tim Pawlenty for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 52%
Romney-Pawlenty……………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Portman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rob Portman for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 52%
Romney-Portman…………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q11 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Condoleezza Rice for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 50%
Romney-Rice ………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q12 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 58%
He should not………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q13 Who do you think has been better for the
automotive industry in Michigan: Barack
Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q14 Do you consider Mitt Romney to be a
Michigander, or not?
He is a Michigander …………………………………. 22%
He is not…………………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 40%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Pennsylvania Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Bobby Jindal for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Jindal………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Tim Pawlenty for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Pawlenty……………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Portman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rob Portman for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Portman…………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Condoleezza Rice for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 45%
Romney-Rice ………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q12 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 62%
He should not………………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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