Ohio Miscellany

-Voters in Ohio are still opposed to gay marriage, but they've moved quite a bit on the issue over the last eight months. 37% think it should be legal to 50% who believe it should be illegal. That -13 spread is a net 10 point increase in support compared to our poll in the state last October when 32% thought it should be legal and 55% illegal.

Republicans have barely moved over that time but the numbers reflect a big increase in support from Democrats. They've gone from supporting gay marriage only 46/41 to favoring it by a 54/30 margin. Independents have also shifted from opposing it, 32/51, to supporting it 42/38.

Although it's a small sample the movement has been particularly acute among black voters. They opposed gay marriage by a whooping 63/16 margin on our October poll but now express support for it by a 42/35 spread. That's reflective of the movement we've seen everywhere among African Americans since Barack Obama announced his support for gay marriage.

When you expand the discussion to civil unions 66% of Ohio voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 32% completely opposed to any recognition.

-It's been two years since the decision, but voters in Ohio aren't showing much of an inclination to warm up to LeBron James. 25% have a favorable opinion of him to 39% with a negative one. That -14 favorability spread is almost identical to the -15 one we had at 19/34 right in the wake of the 'Decision' in 2010. 66% of Ohioans who had a rooting interest in the NBA finals pulled for the Thunder over the Heat.

There's a great deal of racial polarization both in James' favorability numbers and in who people in the state cheered for in the finals. James is quite popular with African Americans at 61/26, but quite unpopular with whites at 21/42. Similarly black voters rooted for the Heat 45-31, while white voters went for the Thunder 29-12.

-Most national generic House ballot polling this year has been pretty close and the story is no different in Ohio. 43% of voters say they'd pick a Democrat for Congress if the election was today, and an equal 43% say that they would go for the GOP.

Full results here

Comments

[Obama 2012]

I think this bit on independents support of gay marriage is very good: "Independents have also shifted from opposing it, 32/51, to supporting it 42/38" ...

I really don't think many Democrats or Republicans are going to be swayed one way or the other by this issue - so whether it's a plus or minus depends on how the indies view it (as they are the type of people who are open to voting both ways) ... so it's a very good thing that it's now a positive with them.

The Republicans are running out of ways to make people vote against their own economic best interest! hoo-ray!