PPP's newest Presidential polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania find Barack Obama with healthy leads in both states. He's up by 14 points, 53-39, in Michigan and by 6 points, 49-43, in Pennsylvania. We last looked at each of these states in May. Speaking to the stability of the Presidential race over the last couple months the Michigan result is exactly identical to the last poll, and the Pennsylvania poll differs only slightly from Obama's 50-42 advantage on the previous one.
There are a couple common themes driving Obama's success in these states. The biggest is his competitiveness with white voters. He actually leads 48-44 with them in Michigan, and he just narrowly trails 46-45 with them in Pennsylvania. Given the healthy sized African American populations in both those states anything close to a split with white voters will give Obama an easy victory. Obama is also benefiting from a huge lead with women in both states, 59-33 in Michigan and 54-37 in Pennsylvania, which helps him offset a closer race with men. And he has the upper hand with independents in both states, 50-37 in Michigan and 46-39 in Pennsylvania.
One thing that could be a huge game changer in both of these states? Mitt Romney selecting Condoleezza Rice as his running mate. She would give him a 6 point advantage both places, pulling him into a tie in Pennsylvania at 45-45 and narrowing the gap in Michigan to 50/42. Rice is a very unusually popular political figure. In Pennsylvania her favorability rating is 60/27 and in Michigan it's 56/28. She's even seen favorably by Democrats- 47/38 in Pennsylvania and 41/40 in Michigan- in both states. Her selection has the potential to be a game changer.
Other notes:
-Despite his lead Obama's approval numbers in Pennsylvania continue to be a little bit worrisome. Only 46% of voters approve of him to 50% who disapprove. His numbers are better in Michigan where he has a 51% approval rating to 44% who are unhappy with him.
-Romney continues to have personal likability issues in both states. In Pennsylvania his favorability rating is 39/51 and in Michigan it's 38/55.
-Romney still isn't enjoying much of a homefield advantage in Michigan. Only 22% of voters consider him to be a Michigander to 67% who do not. And there's not a lot of question among folks there about who's been better for the automotive industry- 55% pick Obama to 29% for Romney, and it's an even wider 55/23 among independents.
-In Pennsylvania voters think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns by a 62/31 margin, and in Michigan that spread is 58/34.
Full results here
And there's not a lot of question among folks there about who's been better for the automotive industry- 55% pick Obama to 29% for Romney, and it's an even wider 55/23 among independents.
Writing a New York Times editorial entitled "Let Detroit go bankrupt" will do that to you...
Posted by: dw | July 25, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Wow, who did you poll in Michigan? Seems like a case of poor sampling. That is nowhere near what half a dozen or so other polling firms are finding. You may want to re-poll the state in the near future, might have better luck the second time around
Posted by: Dustin | July 25, 2012 at 11:53 AM
Obama has a lock on 347 electoral votes..... this is all that counts.
Posted by: hawkny | July 25, 2012 at 12:10 PM
Amazing how PPP is always the outlier. Every single poll has the race tightening but not PPP.
Posted by: Kevin | July 25, 2012 at 12:39 PM
I have a hard time believing Rice would really make that much of a difference. That would be pretty astonishing for a VP choice to change the race that much... luckily because Rice is pro-choice I just don't see how Romney can pick her. ... would far right wing nutters really forgive that? is their hatred of Obama so strong that they would be willing to have a pro-choice VP if helped beat him?
Posted by: Obama 2012 | July 25, 2012 at 12:52 PM
How does PPP explain the gaps between all other polling and their numbers? Obama leads Romney among white men? That doesn't pass the laugh test, not even in Michigan.
Posted by: Cas | July 25, 2012 at 12:53 PM
This looks like another poll that assumes 2012 turnout will look like 2008 (D+7) rather than 2004/2010 (even). Wishful thinking?
Posted by: TallDave | July 25, 2012 at 01:16 PM
This just in: Obama is in a dead-heat right now with Romney, an unthinkable position for any incumbent heading into re-election. Jimmy Carter was further ahead of Reagan at this point in 1980 before continued bad news, economic and otherwise, drove voters toward Reagan in record numbers in the final weeks of the campaign. Similarly, I see Obama's campaign coming off the tracks in October...if not before. Their deserate campaign advertising so far could tip the scales to Romney well before October.
Posted by: Lyle | July 25, 2012 at 01:21 PM
I think your Michigan poll is way off. Common sense tells you that. Too many outlier polls, PPP.
Posted by: Mitch Segel | July 25, 2012 at 01:27 PM
This poll is made up bull shit !
Posted by: ian twolan | July 25, 2012 at 02:00 PM
PPP is the ABC News of polling. According to Gallup, a real pollster, only 21% of Americans have confidence in TV news. I doubt that the confidence level of those familiar with PPP would hit double digits.
Posted by: Bcunningham | July 25, 2012 at 02:23 PM
It amuses me to no end how all of the right wingers talk trash about PPP every time there's a poll out that they don't like. PPP has a proven track record.
And it's absolutely amazing to me that anyone thinks Romney has a chance in hell in Michigan. "LET DETROIT GO BANKRUPT" Romney wrote four years ago. He will never win Michigan. Obama saved the auto industry for God's sake. How out of touch with reality are you people?
Obama wins Michigan by 16 points in 2008 and then saves the auto industry and he's going to lose the state in 2012? It's preposterous.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | July 25, 2012 at 03:02 PM
who cares. neither of these states is essential for romney to get to 270. and, if obama were to lose either it would be part of a massive obama route and romney "57 state" victory.
btw, Condi would be a great choice for veep.
Posted by: fidel305 | July 25, 2012 at 03:04 PM
What exactly is this poll worth without divulging the sampling - except as propaganda? We have seen one poll after the other oversample Dems dramatically in order to give obama just a slight edge. The time this sort of thing was clever is rapidly drawing to a close. Do you have any question why the media is held in such disregard?
Posted by: Paul B | July 25, 2012 at 03:07 PM
You can choose to believe or not but PPP is a superb polling agency I've always wonder how they get their numbers so right and spot on.
I have watch PPP polling for years and they seem to be one of the most close in accuracy in most of their Polls most of the time, even in congressional race which is difficault to poll, the hold the key. I don't even know how their auto polling is so.. accurate (Not like Russmussen) compared to live polling.
I am just like every poll-hock but anyone who doubt my personal accessment, can check tight close and surprise congressional races, and they always get it first hand. Also, most surprising was their last weekend polls release before a Tuesday election has always been on the spot with one or two point off.
But the only time I saw them off or struggle was during the caucus polling in Republican normination process which I understand because it depends on who show-up.
The only polls I don't believe is the TV News media CNN, FOX, ETC and News paper polling who does it for their punditry rant market.
Chic.
Posted by: Chic | July 25, 2012 at 03:17 PM
seems about right to me.
Posted by: Scott | July 25, 2012 at 04:03 PM
Cas: We didn't say anything about white men, just white voters of both genders.
TallDave: We have it as D+4, but we never weight for party ID, which shifts and isn't necessarily correlated with party registration.
Posted by: Dustin Ingalls | July 25, 2012 at 05:55 PM
Absolutely hilarious polling by Jensen. He finds Obama and Romney tied Nationally and Romney winning Independents but somehow in Michigan he finds Independents falling in love with Obama. I would be ashamed to post a poll with my name on it if I were Jensen. Just more propaganda polling. Somebody else commented how does ppp always seem to be the outlier. Do you really need to ask that after seeing these types of bogus polls. Jensen is a Democratic hack job who will start doing real polls closer to the election so his numbers will start falling in line with everybody else. Right now he's just singing to the Democratic choir.
Posted by: Scooterboy | July 25, 2012 at 07:59 PM
So from which part of your anatomy did you neocons pull your numbers? Even Rasmussen, that ultimate pay-to-play Republican polling firm, has Obama up 48 to 42 in Michigan, and the conservative RealClearPolitics.com multiple poll average has Obama leading by 47 to 42.8. Sure would be nice if reality reflected your right wing fantasies, but your belief in Obama's unelectability has nothing to do with the on-the-ground reality, where he's doing just fine in Michigan, thank you.
Posted by: Montana | July 25, 2012 at 08:08 PM
It is sad that PPP was once among the elite in polling. Now it is confined to the label outlier. There is no way Romney is losing 14 points, even if he is losing in Michigan, which i agree he probably is, it is ALOT closer than 14 points.
Posted by: Austin Bodger | July 25, 2012 at 11:06 PM
Wow, people are so hateful -- even for a pollster! Calm down folks. Maybe the numbers are a little high, but it is clear that Obama has a lead in both states.
Posted by: Morgan Whitacre | July 26, 2012 at 09:52 AM
Oh, ok. lol. good lick with that. Just because you want it to be does not make it a reality.
CHange is coming and i suspect that these people are not going to like it.
Posted by: tk69 | July 26, 2012 at 11:05 AM
Before criticizing PPP let us note the fact that they are using registered voters in Michigan. If they switch to likely voters I think the results would not be much different than Rasmussen or We Ask America at least as far as Michigan is concerned..about a 6-7 point lead that was reported by those two polls. I see that PPP is switching to likely voters. I predict that CT will show a double digit lead for Obama or high single digits. However, I predict that with a likely voter sample Florida will be very close to call.
Posted by: George | July 26, 2012 at 11:20 AM
trolling blog posts are trolling
from my experience talking to white voters in MI, you seem to have pegged it well.
Hopefully the numbers will hold to election day but with all the right wing messaging/inept polls in MI your going to continue to take heat on the MI results till the election
Posted by: will | July 26, 2012 at 12:50 PM
The poll is clearly inaccurate. Gary Johnson is not in the polling sample, and he's show clearly to take a large percentage of votes in the more "democrat" leaning states. He will take the younger vote and the independent vote from Obama in both michigan and pennsylvania. Gary Johnson will take a significant amount of votes from both parties and will change the polling dramatically.
I don't understand why PPP polls Gary Johnson in some states (out west) and not all. After all he is running a "National" campaign.
Posted by: David | July 26, 2012 at 12:59 PM
Paul B wrote:
"What exactly is this poll worth without divulging the sampling - except as propaganda?"
Did you not click through to view the survey results? It has pretty comprehensive information on the sampling: size, partisan breakdown, race, gender, age, ideology, etc.
At the end of the post are the words "Full results here". The word "here" is a hyper-link. You may be surprised what happens if you click on it -- you are taken to the "full results".
"Do you have any question why the media is held in such disregard?"
PPP is now "the media"?
Posted by: Todd Dugdale | July 26, 2012 at 01:07 PM
I love that the lefties like to criticize Rasmussen and blindly believe in PPP numbers. Are you aware that Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight, who has far more experience analyzing polls than anyone posting here has calculated PPP's house effect at D +3.1 while Rasmussen is only R +1.3? Are you not aware that in the special elections since the 2010 elections that PPP has had an average bias of D +4?
Posted by: John | July 26, 2012 at 02:54 PM
I think these comments boards should be moderated. They're being overwhelmed with troll posts, from people who only hurl insults at PPP with nothing to back them up. At least TallDave and John specifically called out PPP's methodology and sampling, but they're the big exceptions.
I really think a moderator would be justified in deleting posts like ian twolan's or tk69's which are nothing but cheap shots.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | July 26, 2012 at 04:55 PM
re: Gary Johnson - it seems unlikely he will have much impact anywhere except for his home state ... although I agree I'd like to see him included to see for sure.
re: Virgil Goode --- I sure hope he makes it on the ballot in Virginia. if he gets anywhere close to the 9% he got in PPP's last VA poll, it's hard to see how Romney could overcome that. Goode is a far right wing lunatic - almost all of his support will come from Romney (any Obama supporters voting for Goode are some very confused folks)
Posted by: Obama 2012 | July 28, 2012 at 04:30 PM