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July 25, 2012

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dw

And there's not a lot of question among folks there about who's been better for the automotive industry- 55% pick Obama to 29% for Romney, and it's an even wider 55/23 among independents.

Writing a New York Times editorial entitled "Let Detroit go bankrupt" will do that to you...

Dustin

Wow, who did you poll in Michigan? Seems like a case of poor sampling. That is nowhere near what half a dozen or so other polling firms are finding. You may want to re-poll the state in the near future, might have better luck the second time around

hawkny

Obama has a lock on 347 electoral votes..... this is all that counts.

Kevin

Amazing how PPP is always the outlier. Every single poll has the race tightening but not PPP.

Obama 2012

I have a hard time believing Rice would really make that much of a difference. That would be pretty astonishing for a VP choice to change the race that much... luckily because Rice is pro-choice I just don't see how Romney can pick her. ... would far right wing nutters really forgive that? is their hatred of Obama so strong that they would be willing to have a pro-choice VP if helped beat him?

Cas

How does PPP explain the gaps between all other polling and their numbers? Obama leads Romney among white men? That doesn't pass the laugh test, not even in Michigan.

TallDave

This looks like another poll that assumes 2012 turnout will look like 2008 (D+7) rather than 2004/2010 (even). Wishful thinking?

Lyle

This just in: Obama is in a dead-heat right now with Romney, an unthinkable position for any incumbent heading into re-election. Jimmy Carter was further ahead of Reagan at this point in 1980 before continued bad news, economic and otherwise, drove voters toward Reagan in record numbers in the final weeks of the campaign. Similarly, I see Obama's campaign coming off the tracks in October...if not before. Their deserate campaign advertising so far could tip the scales to Romney well before October.

Mitch Segel

I think your Michigan poll is way off. Common sense tells you that. Too many outlier polls, PPP.

ian twolan

This poll is made up bull shit !

Bcunningham

PPP is the ABC News of polling. According to Gallup, a real pollster, only 21% of Americans have confidence in TV news. I doubt that the confidence level of those familiar with PPP would hit double digits.

Obama 2012

It amuses me to no end how all of the right wingers talk trash about PPP every time there's a poll out that they don't like. PPP has a proven track record.

And it's absolutely amazing to me that anyone thinks Romney has a chance in hell in Michigan. "LET DETROIT GO BANKRUPT" Romney wrote four years ago. He will never win Michigan. Obama saved the auto industry for God's sake. How out of touch with reality are you people?

Obama wins Michigan by 16 points in 2008 and then saves the auto industry and he's going to lose the state in 2012? It's preposterous.

fidel305

who cares. neither of these states is essential for romney to get to 270. and, if obama were to lose either it would be part of a massive obama route and romney "57 state" victory.

btw, Condi would be a great choice for veep.

Paul B

What exactly is this poll worth without divulging the sampling - except as propaganda? We have seen one poll after the other oversample Dems dramatically in order to give obama just a slight edge. The time this sort of thing was clever is rapidly drawing to a close. Do you have any question why the media is held in such disregard?

Chic

You can choose to believe or not but PPP is a superb polling agency I've always wonder how they get their numbers so right and spot on.

I have watch PPP polling for years and they seem to be one of the most close in accuracy in most of their Polls most of the time, even in congressional race which is difficault to poll, the hold the key. I don't even know how their auto polling is so.. accurate (Not like Russmussen) compared to live polling.

I am just like every poll-hock but anyone who doubt my personal accessment, can check tight close and surprise congressional races, and they always get it first hand. Also, most surprising was their last weekend polls release before a Tuesday election has always been on the spot with one or two point off.

But the only time I saw them off or struggle was during the caucus polling in Republican normination process which I understand because it depends on who show-up.

The only polls I don't believe is the TV News media CNN, FOX, ETC and News paper polling who does it for their punditry rant market.

Chic.

Scott

seems about right to me.

Dustin Ingalls

Cas: We didn't say anything about white men, just white voters of both genders.

TallDave: We have it as D+4, but we never weight for party ID, which shifts and isn't necessarily correlated with party registration.

Scooterboy

Absolutely hilarious polling by Jensen. He finds Obama and Romney tied Nationally and Romney winning Independents but somehow in Michigan he finds Independents falling in love with Obama. I would be ashamed to post a poll with my name on it if I were Jensen. Just more propaganda polling. Somebody else commented how does ppp always seem to be the outlier. Do you really need to ask that after seeing these types of bogus polls. Jensen is a Democratic hack job who will start doing real polls closer to the election so his numbers will start falling in line with everybody else. Right now he's just singing to the Democratic choir.

Montana

So from which part of your anatomy did you neocons pull your numbers? Even Rasmussen, that ultimate pay-to-play Republican polling firm, has Obama up 48 to 42 in Michigan, and the conservative RealClearPolitics.com multiple poll average has Obama leading by 47 to 42.8. Sure would be nice if reality reflected your right wing fantasies, but your belief in Obama's unelectability has nothing to do with the on-the-ground reality, where he's doing just fine in Michigan, thank you.

Austin Bodger

It is sad that PPP was once among the elite in polling. Now it is confined to the label outlier. There is no way Romney is losing 14 points, even if he is losing in Michigan, which i agree he probably is, it is ALOT closer than 14 points.

Morgan Whitacre

Wow, people are so hateful -- even for a pollster! Calm down folks. Maybe the numbers are a little high, but it is clear that Obama has a lead in both states.

tk69

Oh, ok. lol. good lick with that. Just because you want it to be does not make it a reality.

CHange is coming and i suspect that these people are not going to like it.

George

Before criticizing PPP let us note the fact that they are using registered voters in Michigan. If they switch to likely voters I think the results would not be much different than Rasmussen or We Ask America at least as far as Michigan is concerned..about a 6-7 point lead that was reported by those two polls. I see that PPP is switching to likely voters. I predict that CT will show a double digit lead for Obama or high single digits. However, I predict that with a likely voter sample Florida will be very close to call.

will

trolling blog posts are trolling
from my experience talking to white voters in MI, you seem to have pegged it well.
Hopefully the numbers will hold to election day but with all the right wing messaging/inept polls in MI your going to continue to take heat on the MI results till the election

David

The poll is clearly inaccurate. Gary Johnson is not in the polling sample, and he's show clearly to take a large percentage of votes in the more "democrat" leaning states. He will take the younger vote and the independent vote from Obama in both michigan and pennsylvania. Gary Johnson will take a significant amount of votes from both parties and will change the polling dramatically.

I don't understand why PPP polls Gary Johnson in some states (out west) and not all. After all he is running a "National" campaign.

Todd Dugdale

Paul B wrote:
"What exactly is this poll worth without divulging the sampling - except as propaganda?"

Did you not click through to view the survey results? It has pretty comprehensive information on the sampling: size, partisan breakdown, race, gender, age, ideology, etc.

At the end of the post are the words "Full results here". The word "here" is a hyper-link. You may be surprised what happens if you click on it -- you are taken to the "full results".

"Do you have any question why the media is held in such disregard?"

PPP is now "the media"?

John

I love that the lefties like to criticize Rasmussen and blindly believe in PPP numbers. Are you aware that Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight, who has far more experience analyzing polls than anyone posting here has calculated PPP's house effect at D +3.1 while Rasmussen is only R +1.3? Are you not aware that in the special elections since the 2010 elections that PPP has had an average bias of D +4?

Inkan1969

I think these comments boards should be moderated. They're being overwhelmed with troll posts, from people who only hurl insults at PPP with nothing to back them up. At least TallDave and John specifically called out PPP's methodology and sampling, but they're the big exceptions.

I really think a moderator would be justified in deleting posts like ian twolan's or tk69's which are nothing but cheap shots.

Obama 2012

re: Gary Johnson - it seems unlikely he will have much impact anywhere except for his home state ... although I agree I'd like to see him included to see for sure.

re: Virgil Goode --- I sure hope he makes it on the ballot in Virginia. if he gets anywhere close to the 9% he got in PPP's last VA poll, it's hard to see how Romney could overcome that. Goode is a far right wing lunatic - almost all of his support will come from Romney (any Obama supporters voting for Goode are some very confused folks)

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