Obama leads in Iowa

PPP continues to find Barack Obama as the favorite in Iowa, although the race in the state is a good deal closer than it was in both 2008 and on our last poll in early May. Obama leads by 5 points, 48-43, after previously holding a 10 point advantage at 51-41.

Iowa voters have flipped from narrow approval of Obama (49/46) to narrow disapproval of him (47/49) over the last couple months. His numbers are pretty steady with Democrats and Republicans but with independents he's gone from 52/41 to 45/48. Fortunately for Obama, Romney's not very popular either. Only 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 55% with a negative one. That -18 spread is up a bit from its -22 standing at 34/56 the last time PPP polled Iowa, but it's still indicative of an electorate that's not exactly warming up to him yet.

Iowa really exemplifies how critical women are to Obama's reelection hopes. He leads 54-37 with them, helping to offset a 48-43 disadvantage with men. Iowa's also a state where Obama continues to benefit from a party unity gap, taking 87% of Democrats to Romney's 84% of Republicans. If Romney can close that up the state will tighten further. Obama leads 46-38 with independents, although that's down a good deal from his 54-34 lead in May.

Iowans may be leaning toward Obama overall but they take issue with some of his most prominent policy initiatives. They disagree with the Supreme Court ruling on health care, 41/46, and give John Roberts a slightly negative favorability rating at 31/33. As we've seen most places since the health care ruling Democrats (37/24) give Roberts good marks while Republicans (23/44) rate him negatively. Voters are more opposed to Obama's new immigration policy, splitting against it 35/47. We've now found opposition to that in North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Iowa over the last couple weeks.

Iowa voters have been closely divided on Terry Branstad ever since his return to office and that's no different on this poll- 45% approve of him to 43% disapprove. On the off chance he was Romney's running mate, Obama would lead their ticket 49-42. On the even offer chance Romney made a play to conservatives by picking Steve King Obama's lead would rise to 48/40. King is not very popular statewide, with a 26/37 favorability rating.

Iowa and Wisconsin are in a very similar boat right now- Obama's not nearly as strong in either as he was in 2008, but he does still look like a clear favorite at least for the time being.

Full results here

Comments

[Gosto Tothiwim]

Anyone have an idea about a humane way to deal with illegal immigration that doesn't encourage more?

[NRH]

Make a Mexican Marshall Plan to get their economy onto a sound footing. Eliminate the drug gangs to stabilize Mexican society (and legalizing marijuana in the US could do this almost overnight, as by some estimates marijuana smuggling makes up over 90% of their profits, but YMMV). Illegal immigration is itself a symptom of the disparity in living conditions across the border. Raise the Mexican standard of living (at least relatively) and illegal immigration drops notably. If you try to deal with it purely on the receiving country's end, you have to make the penalty for illegal immigration more significant than the gain in standard of living, which can rapidly break the 'humane' requirement.