Barack Obama's considerably weaker in Wisconsin than he was in 2008, but he still looks like the clear favorite to win the state again. We find him with 50% to 44% for Mitt Romney.
Obama actually has under water approval numbers in the state. 47% think he's doing a good job, while 48% disapprove. But voters aren't very high on Romney either. Only 41% rate him favorably, while 50% have a negative opinion of him.
One thing that could make the state look like much more of a toss up is if Romney chooses Paul Ryan as his running mate. Ryan has a pretty solid 44/39 favorability rating and if he was on the ticket Obama's lead would decline all the way to 47/46. Ryan's presence has the effect of further unifying the GOP base around Romney and also helping to bring some more independent voters into the fold.
Wisconsin voters are closely divided on the Supreme Court's decision regarding health care- 46% say they agree with it, while 44% disagree. John Roberts' favorability is 30/31 and reflecting what we saw in North Carolina and Virginia numbers yesterday he has pretty good marks with Democrats (36/20) and pretty bad ones with Republicans (19/42). One issue that could have the potential to cause Obama some trouble is immigration- just 39% of voters say they agree with the new policy he announced last month while 44% disagree.
Obama's probably going to win Wisconsin again this year but early indications are that he'll have to fight harder for it than he did the first time around.
Full results here