Obama leads by 6 in Wisconsin

Barack Obama's considerably weaker in Wisconsin than he was in 2008, but he still looks like the clear favorite to win the state again. We find him with 50% to 44% for Mitt Romney.

Obama actually has under water approval numbers in the state. 47% think he's doing a good job, while 48% disapprove. But voters aren't very high on Romney either. Only 41% rate him favorably, while 50% have a negative opinion of him.

One thing that could make the state look like much more of a toss up is if Romney chooses Paul Ryan as his running mate. Ryan has a pretty solid 44/39 favorability rating and if he was on the ticket Obama's lead would decline all the way to 47/46. Ryan's presence has the effect of further unifying the GOP base around Romney and also helping to bring some more independent voters into the fold.

Scott Walker's numbers are holding up more than a month after he survived his recall election. 51% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 46% who disapprove, tracking the results of his contest against Tom Barrett pretty closely. Walker wouldn't make much of a difference as a potential Romney running mate though- Obama would continue to lead 49-43. Republican support for the Romney/Walker ticket actually drops from when we just ask about Romney, perhaps reflecting a desire among GOP voters for Walker to just stay where he is.

Wisconsin voters are closely divided on the Supreme Court's decision regarding health care- 46% say they agree with it, while 44% disagree. John Roberts' favorability is 30/31 and reflecting what we saw in North Carolina and Virginia numbers yesterday he has pretty good marks with Democrats (36/20) and pretty bad ones with Republicans (19/42). One issue that could have the potential to cause Obama some trouble is immigration- just 39% of voters say they agree with the new policy he announced last month while 44% disagree.

Obama's probably going to win Wisconsin again this year but early indications are that he'll have to fight harder for it than he did the first time around.

Full results here

Comments

[Matt D]

This poll has a rather large enthusiasm gap. It's 46-46 Obama-McCain, compared to the 56-42 actual win. Even if there were an enthusiasm gap, it couldn't possibly be that big.

[Chuck Tranberg]

Interesting about Paul Ryan. However, any benefit of selecting Ryan may be short-lived. It would make the Ryan Budget a top campaign issue. What with his voucher scheme for Medicare and cuts to programs while protecting tax cuts to the rich--I don't think it would be a big selling point nationally. I think it wouldn't necessariy sell in Wisconsin either.

[fladem]

Demographics look more like 2010 than 2008. The 18-29 vote in this poll is 12%, versus 16% in the Walker recall, 15% in 2010 and 22% in the 2008 general election. Moreover this electorate is a GOP +2 partisan makeup, versus a Dem +1 in 2010 and a +6 Dem electorate in 2008.

The question lurking here is whether the fact that more than half the young do not have landline is skewing these polls. Charles Franklin has certainly raised this concern, and I frankly do not believe we will see a 10 point drop-off in the 18-29 vote between 2008 and 2012.

[Bill Mitchell]

Wait, I'm sorry. Are you trying to tell me Obama leads by 6 in a poll where there is a +2% Republican sample and Walker just won a landslide recall victory?

So what you are saying is that both Republicans and Independents are breaking hard for Obama in Wisconsin where the Dem just lost by 7%?

I'm sorry but what are you smoking? One more bogus poll from PPP.

[Todd Dugdale]

Bill wrote:
"So what you are saying is that both Republicans and Independents are breaking hard for Obama in Wisconsin where the Dem just lost by 7%?"

The D/R/I is 30/32/38, which means that Independents are the largest group in the sample. IOW, it's not a "+2% Republican sample". If you looked at the cross-tabs, you would see that Republicans break for Romney 87%. That is hardly "breaking hard for Obama", is it?

Independents, however, go for Obama by 14 points. Why you find that so hard to believe is beyond me.

If anything, the poll is probably underestimating Obama's support because the sample is 46/46 for McCain vs. Obama in a state that Obama won by double digits.

The Walker recall election has nothing to do with the Presidential race, and the recall exit polling indicated a similar lead for Obama.

[scott]

The Marquette poll showed Obama leading by 8. Are they smoking something too?

[Billy Grubbs]

It is pretty clear what is happening here.
After the June fundraising numbers were posted with Romney raising almost 50% more that Obama, a panic set in and a rash of e-mails were sent to donors (I have been a registered Democrat for over 30 years and am on the list).

Whether overtly or by a feeling in the Force, liberal leaning pollsters suddenly began publishing polls showing a surge for Obama in a few key states. I do not believe these new numbers by college poly sci departments or any poll that uses registered voter instead of the more accurate likely voter standard.

If Obama settles back to a tie in a few weeks, and Romney continues to out-raise him, then Obama will spiral downward and folks will write him off as a failure.

Also, the lack of passion and enthusiasm for Obama is amazing. If it rains on election day, I expect Obama to lose in an epic landslide as folks simply do not vote as an act of passive-aggression.

[Todd Dugdale]

Billy wrote:
"the more accurate likely voter standard"

Sure, LV is more accurate when you are close enough to an election to be able to determine who is really a likely voter. Recall that Rasmussen has been using a LV sample for TWO YEARS already. How does any pollster know, two years in advance of an election, who will actually vote? Also, since Rasmussen's LV model is a proprietary secret, you are essentially trusting Rasmussen blindly when he tells you that he is measuring likely voters.

As far as money, look at the examples of Fiorina and McMahon. Money doesn't necessarily buy an election. The messages that will be used in the Romney ads are all messages that people are familiar with ALREADY. If you don't currently believe Obama is a "failed President", for example, you probably won't change your mind after hearing that 2376 times in an ad campaign.

Otherwise, nobody really cares what you believe or don't believe. Do you think that PPP is suddenly going to "adjust" their polling to satisfy Billy Grubbs? Don't like the free polling PPP is providing? Ask for your money back.

[Jim Maas]

The elite national "news" media and the bi-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates have rigged the game to try to limit this fall’s presidential debates to only the Democrat and the Republican candidates.

Never mind that one out of three Americans don’t consider themselves to be either Republicans or Democrats, or that, in this poll, the plurality of respondents, 38%, identify themselves as third party supporters or independents. Yet, not one question was about about a third party candidate. Gov. Gary Johnson actually has been chosen by the Libertarian Party whereas the Republicans and Democrats have yet to hold their nomination conventions.

Would it be fair to conclude the PPP is an establishment polling outfit? Isn't including all serious candidates in a poll part of the democratic system? Since the Commission on Presidential Debates arbitrarily includes candidates polling at least 15%, and PPP doesn't include Johnson in their poll, therefore it will impossible for him to get to the debates.

Can't you be a bit more sneaky than that?