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July 18, 2012


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Until someone else verified, this seems like an outlier. When's the last time NM polled this closely?

Tom Johnson

With all due respect, this is not a valid poll. There's no way Romney gets above 35% with Hispanics in New Mexico. It's simply not going to happen. I suspect there were probably no surveys conducted in Spanish here. English speaking hispanics tend to be more Republican.


polls like this happen sometimes. I suspect that it's a lot less close than this poll states. BTW vice presidents rarely ever decide elections.


This is a good sign. All polls seem to be trending in the right direction.

CBS/NYT just released a poll showing Romney leading 47/46 with a D+6 sample (2008 was a record turnout year for D's at +7), so that sample skew is probably still high. When you consider GOP overwhelming lead in voter intensity, Independents all breaking for Romney in every poll, and the built in advantage for the GOP when the samples switch from registered to likely voters, signs are starting to point to a GOP wipeout.


LOL.. So to the authors of the comments above. I suppose the PPP polls that any average human could consider calling "outliers" due to their heavy Democratic lean really are fair and accurate polls?

Mmmhmmmm... We saw how accurate PPP was in Wisconsin in June.


Haha! Comments on this are hilarious. There's a whole class of Romney Democrats being born these days. I'm one of them. I started as ABO, but now that I know Romney's record, I'm fully on board with him being the best man for the job hands down.



For a context of 2014 I understand not why you reject to poll the strongest potential candidates. Now the poll is done and unfortunately we know not how would be the best what a Democrat can do against S Martinez.

She would defeat every Democrat in the state? or she would be defeated vs an enough strong Democratic candidate?

Maybe we know it the next time.


Don't count Gary Johnson out of the race. This is a three man race and Johnson is starting to get national ranking. See the top secret tip for all poker players at

Obama 2012

re: Annabellep

80 Romney Democrats... in the entire country. That seems about right.


re: eric

GOP wipe-out? 538 still sees Obama as a 67% favorite (81% _now) and Intrade has Obama at 57% (Romney now under 40%.)


How much do you want to bet that the people who think this poll is an outlier thought the Iowa poll with Obama +10 was a true representation? Republicans can definitely win this kind of Hispanic support, so this is not at all unreasonable. McCain won 30% of their vote, Bush won 44%. With republican Hispanics in politics now (govs Susana Martinez and Brian Sandoval and senator Marco Rubio) and no solutions to issues from Obama, maybe they are finally starting to see the light and switch. They are more conservative than liberal ideologically, the democrats just string them along with promises of immigration reform but never deliver on those promises.

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