« | Main | Presidential race tightens in New Mexico »

July 18, 2012

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Jay

Until someone else verified, this seems like an outlier. When's the last time NM polled this closely?

Tom Johnson

With all due respect, this is not a valid poll. There's no way Romney gets above 35% with Hispanics in New Mexico. It's simply not going to happen. I suspect there were probably no surveys conducted in Spanish here. English speaking hispanics tend to be more Republican.

Jeff

polls like this happen sometimes. I suspect that it's a lot less close than this poll states. BTW vice presidents rarely ever decide elections.

3rjc

This is a good sign. All polls seem to be trending in the right direction.

CBS/NYT just released a poll showing Romney leading 47/46 with a D+6 sample (2008 was a record turnout year for D's at +7), so that sample skew is probably still high. When you consider GOP overwhelming lead in voter intensity, Independents all breaking for Romney in every poll, and the built in advantage for the GOP when the samples switch from registered to likely voters, signs are starting to point to a GOP wipeout.

Michael

LOL.. So to the authors of the comments above. I suppose the PPP polls that any average human could consider calling "outliers" due to their heavy Democratic lean really are fair and accurate polls?

Mmmhmmmm... We saw how accurate PPP was in Wisconsin in June.

Annabellep

Haha! Comments on this are hilarious. There's a whole class of Romney Democrats being born these days. I'm one of them. I started as ABO, but now that I know Romney's record, I'm fully on board with him being the best man for the job hands down.

https://www.facebook.com/romneydemocrats2012

Mike

For a context of 2014 I understand not why you reject to poll the strongest potential candidates. Now the poll is done and unfortunately we know not how would be the best what a Democrat can do against S Martinez.

She would defeat every Democrat in the state? or she would be defeated vs an enough strong Democratic candidate?

Maybe we know it the next time.

MootsaGootsa

Don't count Gary Johnson out of the race. This is a three man race and Johnson is starting to get national ranking. See the top secret tip for all poker players at

Obama 2012

re: Annabellep

80 Romney Democrats... in the entire country. That seems about right.

~~~

re: eric

GOP wipe-out? 538 still sees Obama as a 67% favorite (81% _now) and Intrade has Obama at 57% (Romney now under 40%.)

John

How much do you want to bet that the people who think this poll is an outlier thought the Iowa poll with Obama +10 was a true representation? Republicans can definitely win this kind of Hispanic support, so this is not at all unreasonable. McCain won 30% of their vote, Bush won 44%. With republican Hispanics in politics now (govs Susana Martinez and Brian Sandoval and senator Marco Rubio) and no solutions to issues from Obama, maybe they are finally starting to see the light and switch. They are more conservative than liberal ideologically, the democrats just string them along with promises of immigration reform but never deliver on those promises.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2014

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them
–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

For more information on hiring PPP for your polling needs click here

Among the Best Pollsters, Year after Year.

2014 :
Rated Most Accurate Pollster in Governor’s Races Nationally

2012 :
Correctly predicted the winner of every state in the Presidential race, and the winner of every major Senate race

2010 :
First pollster to predict Scott Brown’s upset win over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race, only pollster to predict Christine O’Donnell’s upset victory over Mike Castle in the Delaware Republican Senate primary.

2008 :
Ranked by the Wall Street Journal as the 2nd most accurate swing state pollster in the Presidential election.


WSJ Graphic

CONTACT US

Public Policy Polling
2912 Highwoods Blvd., Suite 201
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888.621.6988

Questions or Comments?
Email Us

RECENT POSTS

Categories

HIRE PPP

Dean Debnam Dean Debnam
Public Policy Polling CEO

PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations.  Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"

Learn more about working
with PPP for your next project >

FOLLOW US

Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
RSS Feed RSS Reader
Email Sign up: New Polling Data email