Obama holding serve in the upper South

In 2008 Barack Obama put North Carolina and Virginia in the Democratic column for the first time in decades. PPP's newest poll in those two states finds him running very close to his performance four years ago. In Virginia he leads Mitt Romney by 8 points, 50-42, and in North Carolina he has a single point advantage at 47-46.

Our polling in both of these states has been pretty steady over the last year and a half. Obama has consistently fared very well in Virginia, leading by 6 points, 8 points, and now 8 points again on our last three polls. This is looking like it could be something of a firewall state for him. We have now polled North Carolina 22 times since late November of 2010. 21 out of those 22 times Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each other. The state's about as much of a toss up as it could possibly be.

Health Care

Voters in both North Carolina and Virginia are pretty evenly divided on the Supreme Court's recent health care ruling. In Virginia 45% of voters say they agree with the ruling while 44% are opposed. In North Carolina the  numbers are nearly identical with an equal 44% both supportive of and opposed to the ruling. For Obama the health care issue as a wash in these swing states is good news given how unpopularly it polled throughout 2009 and 2010.

Feelings about Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts are mixed in both states as well. His favorability rating in Virginia is 34/34 and in North Carolina it's 35/32. Roberts is liked by Democrats in both states (43/18 in Virginia and 46/18 in North Carolina) and disliked by Republicans (23/52 in Virginia and 21/44 in North Carolina).

Although it hasn't received as much attention Obama's recent policy announcement on immigration might cause more trouble for him in these states. Voters oppose it 43/39 in Virginia and 46/40 in North Carolina.

Running Mates

There are several prominent Republican politicians in these states who seem like plausible Romney running mates, but none of them would have much of an impact on the home front. If Bob McDonnell was Romney's choice the race would simply shift from a 50-42 Obama advantage to a 50-43 one in Virginia. If Richard Burr was on the ticket Obama's 47-46 edge in North Carolina would remain completely unchanged.

The one person we looked at who would make a big difference is Eric Cantor in Virginia. Cantor has a 22/41 favorability rating and on the off chance Romney selected him Obama's advantage would become 12 points at 50/38. That's a pretty strong sign of how weak the House Republican brand is right now.

Other Notes

-If Virgil Goode gets on the ballot in Virginia it could spell trouble for Romney. He pulls 9% of the vote, getting most of his support from Republicans and conservative leaning independents. With him in the picture Obama's lead pushes out to 14 points at 49-35. It's highly unlikely Goode would get 9% in the end but he certainly could make a difference if Virginia ended up being more like a 1-2 pt race. Goode staying off the ballot may be vital to Romney's prospects there.

-The Bain attacks appear to be working for Obama in North Carolina. 29% of voters say that Romney's work at Bain makes them feel more positive toward him, while 40% say it makes them feel more negative.

-Our North Carolina poll last month found Obama leading Romney only 76-20 with African Americans, a level of support that we said at the time was unrealistically low for Obama. This month his advantage is back up to 85-12. Chances are he'll even still do better than that but Romney's 20% black support last month definitely looks like it was more statistical anomaly than concerning trend for the President.

Full results here

Comments

[Eric Blitz]

It is sad that American democracy has been so captured by the two-party system, which uses the law to limit access by third parties and rewards with money and other legal advantages the two main parties, that a statement such as "Goode staying off the ballot may be vital to Romney's prospects there" is viewed as merely a factual assessment of the situation by a polling company, and not a value-laden premise of legalized duopoly. I am no supporter of Virgil Good by any measure, but that ballot access is used to crimp democracy in America is largely ignored. It has become such a regular part of the political landscape that horse race predictions of campaign outcomes can routinely use denial of access to the ballot as a legitimating factor. I'm sure this poll comment will point out to the Romney campaign that it might make sense for it to use its already over-sized campaign funds to oppress Mr. Goode's VA ballot access effort with expensive and probably spurious legal challenges.

[Randomsubu]

Hey Tom:
I was comparing your NC poll against Civitas/SUSA's recent poll showing Romney up 5. Two most interesting demographic differences: your sample is 56% women, while Civitas is only 52% women. (I assume your poll is also RVs.) Civitas also shows women more evenly divided than you do.
Second, Civitas' party split is 38% D, 30% R and 31% U. Your split (46/34/21) more closely tracks NC registration split (from Civitas' Carolina Transparency.) Both polls show similar preferences for all 3 groups.

So...have I figured out why you two show different results? :)

Another question: why didn't you explain what new immigration policy Pres Obama announced two weeks' back, like you did for Romney's Bain experience?
Thanks!

[Andrew]

I must be honest - I used to really respect your polling outfit but ever since you got involved with the DailyKos partisan radicals, you seem to be missing the mark on very important races.

Consider the following:

- You were off in Wisconsin (the marquee, non-presidential race of 2012) and even suggested that it had moved into the margin of error

- In spite of trumpeting your accuracy on gay marriage polling, you were off a whopping 6 points on your North Carolina poll

- You were way off in your poll for Gabby Giffords' old seat poll

What is troubling is that in every single one of these instances, you erred on the side of the liberal candidate/cause.

Now you come out with a poll that shows Dems outnumbering Republicans 46-34 in North Carolina turnout (wider even than the Dem advantage in the very tough GOP year of 2008) and you expect us to believe that? In 2004 (a much more tied national race), George Bush led 40%-39% in NC turnout.

Additionally, Virginia just doesn't sound right. How can the race be so much closer nationally and Obama performing exactly the same in Virginia as in 2008? Something smells.

[Kevin]

SEIU polling firm always has Obama looking much stronger than he is. All one has to do is go on the ground in Virginia and North Carolina to see that these numbers are wrong.

[NYC]

The world is crazy. Yall left wing ZAPATERO'S ideas are simply stupid. How can you vote for a communist? I'm spanish and i couldn't understand in 2008 how Obama won and why is he now up in the polls in southern states and in all the states? The economy is bad and health care reform, debt, taxes.... If people vote for him they are simple stupid. This is like 2008 spanish election and Obama = ZAPATERO won , what a mess, the worst president ever , just an idiot but white.

[Obama 2012]

I'm pleased that my state (Virginia) looks to be a bit of a firewall for the President right now. It's very hard to imagine Romney winning without Virginia and if your polling is on the money... good news indeed.

[RR]

Obama leads in Virginia by the same margin he leads by in Oregon, says PPP polls. The polls were corroborated by no one.

[Inkan1969]

Andrew and Kevin, polls that PPP does for Daily Kos and SEIU are labelled "Daily Kos/SEIU", and are not featured on the blog. These polls had nothing to do with either. And of the results you listed, PPP still predicted the correct winner. PPP said that Walker and Barber would win, and that the anti-gay amendment would pass.

[Matt]

Your house effect toward the Democrats is getting worse and worse every single poll you release, guys. Every single time I see a headline about a poll result and say to myself, "huh?", *invariably* the article ends up pointing to one of your polls. You are 3-4 points to the left of reality.

That is such a shame. You had such a good reputation, and you were THE go to pollsters in the 2010 cycle. I don't know what happened... if it was the Kos relationship, or if you just changed your methodology... but... it is just insane watching how bizarre your poll results have become.

Nobody... NOBODY believes Obama is up 8 in Virginia. NOBODY. 3-4 point lead in Virginia? Yeah, sure... probably. 8? Are you out of your mind?

And at this point, neither Obama nor Romney really thinks North Carolina is within reach for Obama anymore. Romney is probably up by about 3 there, which fits with what everyone ELSE's polling shows.

You have sacrificed your credibility, and I can't for the life of me understand why. Such a shame.

[Mikey]

Goode at 9%? When he couldn't get 50% of one of eleven districts in VA to win re-election in 2008? Seriously?

Also, you guys polled during a holiday weekend when power was out for over one million people throughout the state. What's the geographic breakdown of this? Did you just ignore the areas there wasn't power? (Western VA, NOVA, etc)

Last poll you had much fewer Republicans and it was still this close. We're supposed to believe if you sample more Republicans the needle doesn't shift?

A lot of this isn't adding up.

[Xerxes]

What a stupid poll!!! PPP polled Virginia from July 5-8??? How? Half the state had no power!!!!! LMAO!

[lynn]

get over it you black haters. obama 2012