« | Main | IA Dems want Hillary in ‘16, GOP picture less clear »

July 23, 2012


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.


"If '12 was a crazy race for Republicans, wait til '16."

Even a dummy like you, Tom, must realize - there won't be a GOP primary in 2016.

Dustin Ingalls

Tom didn't write that or the above post; I did. Note that I said: "Of course, this is all contingent upon Romney not winning in November."


No Republican primary in 2016? That's a bit overoptimistic. Sure, they're solidly wedged in on the wrong side of a demographic shift, but they'll still have enough voters to put together a primary in 2016. They might have to start time-sharing convention space with the Libertarians by 2024, though.


I doubt Clinton runs. Biden will try, but he'll end up being the first sitting Vice-President to lose his party's nomination. I think a wildcard takes it in 2016. Like Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer or New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich.

Derek Gabriel

Look to see if someone like Martin O'Malley is invited to give the keynote address at the convention. O'Malley has been putting himself on the national stage for a while, via talk shows and addresses, so it's only a matter of time before he decides to run for president. Clinton I don't think wants to run, but if she did, it would be pretty tough for anyone to beat her (although that's what everyone said four years ago). If Clinton runs, Biden won't, but don't count him out if she doesn't. Warren won't run in 2016, look to her for 2020 or 2024.

As for the GOP, Santorum will probably be the Palin of this year: a social conservative with the "next in line" title, teasing at getting in the race but ultimately deciding to sit out and be a pundit. Huckabee is unlikely to run, enjoying his spot on Fox and the fact that he still has followers even though he is not running for office. Rand Paul might, as a sort of bridge between the Libertarian and conservative factions of the GOP. Rubio will run eventually, so 2016 is as good as ever. Palin probably is done with elected life. Walker shouldn't run, but he might, unless he is terribly beat in 2014.

By the way, there is no quicker way to have your opinion completely invalidated than calling someone "dummy".


Derek Gabriel

Also, Cuomo has gotten in trouble with labor interests. He would have to bulk up there in order to survive a Democratic primary.

Obama 2012

Four years is an eternity in politics and it seems pretty crazy to think about 2016 until we know the results of 2012 ... but that said - if I had to bet on 2016 I'd put my money on Clinton.


How pathetic for the democrats! Their primary choices are a neophyte and a buffoon. hillary's only 'accomplishments' have been because of who she is married to. She exists solely in the shawdow of her husband. biden has always been considered someone not to take seriously by the democratic establishment. Can this be the best they can field in 2016?


So 8 years in the Senate and almost 4 years as Secretary of State are not accomplishments?

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.


Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2017

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them
–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

For more information on hiring PPP for your polling needs click here

Among the Best Pollsters, Year after Year.

2014 :
Rated Most Accurate Pollster in Governor’s Races Nationally

2012 :
Correctly predicted the winner of every state in the Presidential race, and the winner of every major Senate race

2010 :
First pollster to predict Scott Brown’s upset win over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race, only pollster to predict Christine O’Donnell’s upset victory over Mike Castle in the Delaware Republican Senate primary.

2008 :
Ranked by the Wall Street Journal as the 2nd most accurate swing state pollster in the Presidential election.

WSJ Graphic


Public Policy Polling
2912 Highwoods Blvd., Suite 201
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888.621.6988

Questions or Comments?
Email Us




Dean Debnam Dean Debnam
Public Policy Polling CEO

PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations.  Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"

Learn more about working
with PPP for your next project >


Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
RSS Feed RSS Reader