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July 23, 2012

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riiight

"If '12 was a crazy race for Republicans, wait til '16."

Even a dummy like you, Tom, must realize - there won't be a GOP primary in 2016.

Dustin Ingalls

Tom didn't write that or the above post; I did. Note that I said: "Of course, this is all contingent upon Romney not winning in November."

realnrh

No Republican primary in 2016? That's a bit overoptimistic. Sure, they're solidly wedged in on the wrong side of a demographic shift, but they'll still have enough voters to put together a primary in 2016. They might have to start time-sharing convention space with the Libertarians by 2024, though.

GaModerate

I doubt Clinton runs. Biden will try, but he'll end up being the first sitting Vice-President to lose his party's nomination. I think a wildcard takes it in 2016. Like Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer or New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich.

Derek Gabriel

Look to see if someone like Martin O'Malley is invited to give the keynote address at the convention. O'Malley has been putting himself on the national stage for a while, via talk shows and addresses, so it's only a matter of time before he decides to run for president. Clinton I don't think wants to run, but if she did, it would be pretty tough for anyone to beat her (although that's what everyone said four years ago). If Clinton runs, Biden won't, but don't count him out if she doesn't. Warren won't run in 2016, look to her for 2020 or 2024.

As for the GOP, Santorum will probably be the Palin of this year: a social conservative with the "next in line" title, teasing at getting in the race but ultimately deciding to sit out and be a pundit. Huckabee is unlikely to run, enjoying his spot on Fox and the fact that he still has followers even though he is not running for office. Rand Paul might, as a sort of bridge between the Libertarian and conservative factions of the GOP. Rubio will run eventually, so 2016 is as good as ever. Palin probably is done with elected life. Walker shouldn't run, but he might, unless he is terribly beat in 2014.

By the way, there is no quicker way to have your opinion completely invalidated than calling someone "dummy".

Cheers!

Derek Gabriel

Also, Cuomo has gotten in trouble with labor interests. He would have to bulk up there in order to survive a Democratic primary.

Obama 2012

Four years is an eternity in politics and it seems pretty crazy to think about 2016 until we know the results of 2012 ... but that said - if I had to bet on 2016 I'd put my money on Clinton.

Perplexed

How pathetic for the democrats! Their primary choices are a neophyte and a buffoon. hillary's only 'accomplishments' have been because of who she is married to. She exists solely in the shawdow of her husband. biden has always been considered someone not to take seriously by the democratic establishment. Can this be the best they can field in 2016?

A33

So 8 years in the Senate and almost 4 years as Secretary of State are not accomplishments?

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