Heinrich starts general up 5

When PPP polled the New Mexico Senate race three months ago Martin Heinrich led Heather Wilson 48-43. Now with the dust settled a month after the primary Martin Heinrich leads Heather Wilson...48-43. The race hasn't moved a bit.

Democrats have a large party id advantage in New Mexico. Wilson is keeping it close because she's taking a higher than normal 23% of the Democratic vote. But Heinrich still has the overall lead because he's leading 45-40 with independents and is also earning an unusual amount of crossover support, 16% of Republicans. Heinrich's 56-33 lead with Hispanics is balancing out Wilson's 53-40 advantage with white voters.

Both candidates have seen their negatives rise since the primary. Heinrich's favorability is now slightly negative at 39/40. But Wilson's is a lot worse at 38/49.  Our polling on this contest has been pretty consistent ever since Jeff Bingaman announced his retirement: it's close but Martin Heinrich always has a mid single digit lead. Something's going to have to happen to shake the race up for Wilson to come back and win.

The 2014 Gubernatorial race has been in the news a little bit lately with Attorney General Gary King's announcement that he will challenge Susana Martinez, but at least at this point in time the Governor is looking like she'll be very tough to defeat. Martinez has a 56% approval rating, with 34% of voters disapproving of her. What's most striking in her numbers is that Democrats nearly break even on her with 44% approving and 45% disapproving. That crossover support has her ranked as one of the top ten most popular Governors in the country in our polling.

Martinez leads King 51-39 and Auditor/Democratic Senate primary runner up Hector Balderas by a 50-37 margin in hypothetical match ups. And this is among the Presidential electorate, which tends to be a little bit more favorable to Democratic candidates than the folks who show up in a midterm. It's impossible to say what the political landscape will look like in two years, but for now Martinez looks to be in a very strong position.

Although Balderas trails Martinez in a hypothetical match up it's worth noting that his favorability is a pretty solid net +14 at 34/20. A year ago it was +5 at 22/17. He may not have won the primary but he emerged from it more popular and with better name recognition, which could position him to do something good further down the line.

Martinez's numbers are impressive for a Republican Governor in a Democratic state, and our Presidential figures tomorrow speak further to her unique appeal.

Full results here

Comments

[Jeffrey Paul]

Dems need to get James Lewis on the ballot. I'd like to see a poll with him vs Susana.

[The Globalizer]

Susana is really an excellent governor. Not perfect but she's cleaner and more transparent than Richardson and less ideological than the national GOP.

[Gerald]

I would love to see James Lewis on the ballot too! Balderas showed that he is incapabale of running a competitive race and should no longer be considered for a legitimate position!

[Mike]

I wish J Bingaman running for governor in 2014. I think he would win.