When PPP polled the New Mexico Senate race three months ago Martin Heinrich led Heather Wilson 48-43. Now with the dust settled a month after the primary Martin Heinrich leads Heather Wilson...48-43. The race hasn't moved a bit.
Democrats have a large party id advantage in New Mexico. Wilson is keeping it close because she's taking a higher than normal 23% of the Democratic vote. But Heinrich still has the overall lead because he's leading 45-40 with independents and is also earning an unusual amount of crossover support, 16% of Republicans. Heinrich's 56-33 lead with Hispanics is balancing out Wilson's 53-40 advantage with white voters.
Both candidates have seen their negatives rise since the primary. Heinrich's favorability is now slightly negative at 39/40. But Wilson's is a lot worse at 38/49. Our polling on this contest has been pretty consistent ever since Jeff Bingaman announced his retirement: it's close but Martin Heinrich always has a mid single digit lead. Something's going to have to happen to shake the race up for Wilson to come back and win.
Martinez leads King 51-39 and Auditor/Democratic Senate primary runner up Hector Balderas by a 50-37 margin in hypothetical match ups. And this is among the Presidential electorate, which tends to be a little bit more favorable to Democratic candidates than the folks who show up in a midterm. It's impossible to say what the political landscape will look like in two years, but for now Martinez looks to be in a very strong position.
Although Balderas trails Martinez in a hypothetical match up it's worth noting that his favorability is a pretty solid net +14 at 34/20. A year ago it was +5 at 22/17. He may not have won the primary but he emerged from it more popular and with better name recognition, which could position him to do something good further down the line.
Martinez's numbers are impressive for a Republican Governor in a Democratic state, and our Presidential figures tomorrow speak further to her unique appeal.
Full results here