Cruz leads in Texas runoff

PPP's first poll of the Texas Senate runoff finds Ted Cruz with a surprising 49-44 lead and a much more enthusiastic cadre of supporters than former front runner David Dewhurst.

Cruz's lead expands to a whooping 59-36 margin over Dewhurst among voters who describe themselves as 'very excited' about voting in the election. The lower turnout is, the better Cruz's chances will be. Dewhurst leads 51-43 with 'somewhat excited' voters and 50-36 with those who say they are 'not that excited.' The big question is whether those less enthused folks will actually bother to turn out or not.

This race is one of the most stark examples of the Tea Party movement propelling a candidate that we've seen to date. 40% of voters identify themselves as members of that movement and Cruz has a 71-26 advantage with them. Dewhurst leads 57-34 with non-Tea Partiers, and they are 50% of the electorate, but it's not nearly enough to drown out Cruz's advantage with that group.

Texas is also an exceptionally rare state where Hispanic voters might be the difference maker in a Republican primary. Cruz has a 78-19 advantage with them. Other groups that give Cruz large leads are men (55-38), folks describing themselves as 'very conservative' (61-34), Evangelicals (50-42), and middle aged voters (54-40). 

Dewhurst's leads come with women (49-44), seniors (47-45), voters identifying as just 'somewhat conservative' (49-45), and moderates (70-20). The fact that Dewhurst is leading by 50 points with moderates yet still losing overall is a pretty good sign of how relevant that voter bloc is within the Republican Party these days.

The large name recognition advantage Dewhurst has enjoyed throughout the campaign has pretty much disappeared. 85% of runoff voters have an opinion about him, and Cruz is not far behind at 81%. We frequently found in our earlier polling that Cruz was winning with voters who knew him, but that he was losing overall because of the name recognition gap. That's not a problem anymore. Cruz's net favorability of +31 (56/25) is better than Dewhurst's +19 (52/33). Since our final pre primary poll Cruz's net fav has improved by 25 points, while Dewhurst's has declined by 17.

Runoff elections are notoriously difficult to poll so Dewhurst shouldn't be written off. But the fact that Cruz is ahead overall and up by even more with the folks most likely to vote is a pretty bad sign for his prospects.

Full results here

Comments

[Jay]

Looks encouraging for the Democrat that faces Cruz, especially those horrible numbers with moderates...

[GH]

That's wishful thinking, Jay, but the Dems in Texas are under-funded and far too under-the-radar to really make a significant impression with independent voters. It also doesn't help that the moderates who are turned off by Cruz could never outnumber the Texan conservative majority (who will inevitably vote for whichever Republican is nominated).

If Cruz winning the nomination offers any positive ramifications for the Democrats it's that it will lessen Dewhurst's chances of being a strong candidate for the 2014 gubernatorial election (if Perry decides to bow out as governor).

[Lee Atwater]

Anyone else find it a bit funny how all these folks endorsed by the supposedly toxic gal from way up north seem to keep winning or doing well in these GOP primaries.

When Fischer and Cruz get sworn in in January, CSPAN should label them R-Palin instead of R-NE and R-TX.

Now, some will say that she had very little to do with their success. Who knows? But we can say she wasn't the kiss of death or anything. I mean, if she was really as poisonous as some claim, her endorsement or support should instantly end anyone's campaign.

Fischer, way behind, not even given a second thought, endorsed by Palin, comes from way behind and wins.

Cruz, way behind, not given a chance, not even predicted to make the runoff. Endorsed by Palin. Forces the runoff, and now looks to be in good shape for the main event.

[Holprof57]

You left out after "stark example of the Tea Party propelling a candidate" the words "and also Sarah Palin". This is yet another example of Palin's power-6 endorsements in a row being winners including, spectacularly, Deb Fischer in Nebraksa. Cruz was way behind until Palin endorsed him and did robocalls for him, It is difficult for Dem's to acknowledge this but the facts can't be denied.

[Alex]

Interesting. If this result holds, we'll see a 2013 Senate with 3 Cubans and no other Hispanics. Speaks volumes about how well they've integrated into American politics versus other Hispanic groups.

[TB]

I'm not sure if Palin has much to do with the success of the winning candidate. I believe the candidate's success is more to do with the Tea Party's and very conservative voters' strength in those states and/or districts.

[Colorado]

When will you start including 3rd party candidates in your national poll?

Like Jill Stein for the Greens, Gary Johnson for the Libertarians, Rocky Anderson for the Justice Party and Virgil Goode for the Constitution Party?

[Lemuel Kinsolving]

So far I cannot find one particle of evidence of Ted Cruz as a conservative. He touts cases he has tried for which he was paid as an example but does not include his representation of the Chinese nor the "Kids for Cash" judges. He went to two very liberal anti-military universities and has no record I can find of opposing either Princeton nor Harvards agenda against the military (recruiting and ROTC). He advertises he is a "fighter"? His father fled Cuba from a dictator! True his father fought in a student revolution with Fidel Castro and was thrown in prison. Ted's grandfather bailed him out to leave the country where Ted alleges his Father later found out Fidel was a communist and opposed him (from the safe location of Texas) So his father thought enough about Cuba to fight with Fidel but not enough about Cuba to fight against Fidel. hmmmm. Cruz is an empty suit.

[Robert Wade]

Moderates are without any real moral compass. They float around aimlessly with the winds of change rather than actually developing--and sticking with--a firm stance. In one breath they'll claim to be a Christian and in the next breath say it's okay to murder the unborn or promote homosexuality as being "normal". They will, in one breath, complain about taxes and in the next scream bloody murder at the thought of this or that entitlement program being slowed, reduced or (horror of horrors) eliminated. They are lukewarm and should be spit out of the mouth.